Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR - US Blockade, Lebanon Ceasefire

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gtyellowjacket said:
I think its less of a threat but hard to say. The administration has said they have taken down about 50% of their missile capabilities. That has been somewhat backed up by independent reports but its still a guess.

But mine was really a joke about not really having American objectives accomplished but doing a good job with Israeli objectives.
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I understood the joke. The question for me is whether Israel's objectives have been furthered or not. I think Bibi's perpetual war objectives have been furthered. I am not sure if Israel, itself, has been benefitted.
 
Calheel said:
I understood the joke. The question for me is whether Israel's objectives have been furthered or not. I think Bibi's perpetual war objectives have been furthered. I am not sure if Israel, itself, has been benefitted.
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We'll have to see. Iran had their missile capabilities degraded, probably. That potentially makes Israel safer.

Israel took about 10% of lebanon's land and probably for the foreseeable future, it'll basically be a no man's land so they can stop attacks from a little further away. And then they will probably never give it back.

Will that lead to more attacks or less? I doubt they'll get more. Probably about the same. But it pretty much guarantees, they're not getting peace from Hezbollah for the next few decades.

I guess the real question is will Israel become even more of a pariah for the rest of the world, especially voters in the United States. That's the real potential loser for Israel.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I think its less of a threat but hard to say. The administration has said they have taken down about 50% of their missile capabilities. That has been somewhat backed up by independent reports but its still a guess.

But mine was really a joke about not really having American objectives accomplished but doing a good job with Israeli objectives.
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Do you think it would be wrong to think strategic missile capability was targeted first and foremost? Doesn't that imply a greater than 50% tactical capability remain? Doesn't this make Hormuz a tougher bargaining point since their weaponry demands their tactics be regionally focused? Have we figured out why we did this yet?
 
gtyellowjacket said:
We'll have to see. Iran had their missile capabilities degraded, probably. That potentially makes Israel safer.

Israel took about 10% of lebanon's land and probably for the foreseeable future, it'll basically be a no man's land so they can stop attacks from a little further away. And then they will probably never give it back.

Will that lead to more attacks or less? I doubt they'll get more. Probably about the same. But it pretty much guarantees, they're not getting peace from Hezbollah for the next few decades.

I guess the real question is will Israel become even more of a pariah for the rest of the world, especially voters in the United States. That's the real potential loser for Israel.
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They didn’t need the US bombing Iran to go after Lebanon. Israel has felt free to attack Lebanon with or without simultaneous Iran attacks.

So I was focusing more on the Iran issue. Yes, Iran suffered infrastructure damage that will take some time to remedy. But Iran also gets sanctions relief and new power with the strait dynamics. Not sure that exchange made Israel safer in the long run. Even under the lawn mowing theory.
 
finesse said:
Do you think it would be wrong to think strategic missile capability was targeted first and foremost? Doesn't that imply a greater than 50% tactical capability remain? Doesn't this make Hormuz a tougher bargaining point since their weaponry demands their tactics be regionally focused? Have we figured out why we did this yet?
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In my opinion we did it because Israel wanted us to. There are other theories like Iran tried to assassinate Trump or he was upset they increased their enrichment percentages. Only Trump knows for sure.
 
Ramrouser said:
Blockade delivering Victory for USA! Trump working on big deals for Iran and the region (Lebanon).
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Define delivering victory.

Remind you that you accept news from people who claimed that this war has long been icer
gtyellowjacket said:
We'll have to see. Iran had their missile capabilities degraded, probably. That potentially makes Israel safer.

Israel took about 10% of lebanon's land and probably for the foreseeable future, it'll basically be a no man's land so they can stop attacks from a little further away. And then they will probably never give it back.

Will that lead to more attacks or less? I doubt they'll get more. Probably about the same. But it pretty much guarantees, they're not getting peace from Hezbollah for the next few decades.

I guess the real question is will Israel become even more of a pariah for the rest of the world, especially voters in the United States. That's the real potential loser for Israel.
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This has only made potential for terror on Israel's and Jews globally worse.

Israel is really getting exposed as a bad actor and even little brother to the US/West.

Weill I think Israel and Jews overall are conflated, the question of:

Why do we support everything they do again?

How long ago was the holocaust and shouldn't have figured out how to exist with our support?

Why are they so involved in our politics above above and below board... and why do we accept that from someone that we fund?

Aren't they run by a criminal?

So...yes, I think they're exposed as a pariah... and while Iran is evil, they are a bad actor/instigator who plays the victim to the US. That is changing and yes they I've being viewed by many as a pariah.

I hope this silliness end ends with Trump's presidency.
 
They're announcing the "opening" of the Strait since the US is now controlling the Strait with the blockade and we discovered in the past few days that there were no mines in the Strait - i.e. Iran was bluffing.

I suspect the US will continue to block Iranian ports until we have a "deal."
 
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran," Araghchi said in a post on X.

So what's changed if the ship has to go thru the Iranian route?
 
nycfan said:
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I assume that Trump capitulated and Iran got what they wanted to open the Strait during the ceasefire. I'm guessing the next step will be for Trump to declare victory to save face and have our military return home. Then he will brag about ending his 11th war and tell Oslo to give him his well deserved Nobel Peace Prize.
 
nycfan said:
IMG_6539.jpeg

So just their controlled northern route along the coast of Iran?
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Yeah, I'm thinking this is another round of each side publicly stating what they think the actual terms are, and we'll be finding out very soon those two versions are significantly different.
 
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