Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR / US F-15 downed in Iran

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Duke Mu said:
It still doesn't work that way.

Here's a start:

The Economist Guide to Commodities 2nd edition: Producers, players and prices; markets, consumers and trends: Caroline Bain: 9781788166027: Amazon.com: Books

The Economist Guide to Commodities 2nd edition: Producers, players and prices; markets, consumers and trends [Caroline Bain] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Economist Guide to Commodities 2nd edition: Producers, players and prices; markets, consumers and trends
www.amazon.com
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Are you telling us you're in the petroleum business? Linking to a book that nobody here is going to buy is not a serious attempt at explanation.

The problem with the "global market" hypothesis is that prices can change in real time but oil does not move that fast. There is no practical way to get Canadian oil to Japan except by their volume-limited Western port. Otherwise, their oil mostly goes south into the US, where it also cannot go to Japan -- it goes to the gulf and gets refined there. The infrastructure is lean and assumes more or less no major disruptions. If there is a major disruption, then the infrastructure cannot adjust immediately.

If you're expert on this, then I will defer but I don't think I'm wrong here. It might depend on how much of a disruption we are talking about.
 
Marines can't secure SOH in this day pf missiles and drones

They can seize Kharg Island but given US cannot even protect I its embassy in Iraq, this would seem to place Marines in vulnerable spot
 
finesse said:
How is it that you take the word of the most dishonest man to serve as president and maybe in the history of American government as gospel? Worst judgment ever?
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I don't take his word. I look at the details of the situation to form an opinion. The US military is absolutely pummeling Iran. They can't retaliate against the US or Israel, so they're taking pot shots to stir up trouble; a last gasp.

The post I responded to was a bunch of "This could happen. That could happen" doom & gloom, mostly related so the strait of Hormuz. A couple pages later, what do I see? The US is sending Tripoli to reopen Hormuz. Did anyone actually think the US wouldn't be able to re-open Hormuz?
 
ZenMode said:
I don't take his word. I look at the details of the situation to form an opinion. The US military is absolutely pummeling Iran. They can't retaliate against the US or Israel, so they're taking pot shots to stir up trouble; a last gasp.

The post I responded to was a bunch of "This could happen. That could happen" doom & gloom, mostly related so the strait of Hormuz. A couple pages later, what do I see? The US is sending Tripoli to reopen Hormuz. Did anyone actually think the US wouldn't be able to re-open Hormuz?
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Those eggs haven't hatched yet.

Yes, we can "win" but their military is hardly dead . I still want to know what winning is here.
 
finesse said:
Yes, we can "win" but their military is hardly dead .
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Their military was dead before the fight started. Their Air Force , among other things, includes F-14s from the 1970s. Within about a day, the number of missiles they launched dropped by ~90% because every time they fired one, we'd pin-point its location and destroy the launcher.

They have nothing but being an irritant at this point, which is why they're flaunting their DRONE collection.
 
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finesse said:
Those eggs haven't hatched yet.

Yes, we can "win" but their military is hardly dead . I still want to know what winning is here.
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Yeah, I remember when we were absolutely pummeling Afghanistan and Iraq, too. Iran is far more populous and its military is far more powerful than either of those countries.

The biggest problems with war in the Middle East are (1) without putting hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground, it's impossible to eliminate the actual threats; (2) even if the threats are eliminated in the short term, you have to keep those boots in place or the threats will re-emerge as soon as you leave; and (3) any attack, and especially boots on the ground, creates another generation of anti-American hardliners who will be even more inclined to attack us in the future. I see no evidence Trump took any of this into consideration.

Take Hormuz, for example. Let's say we bomb every single missile and drone asset on the Iranian side of the strait, such that Iran can't shoot at tankers transiting the strait. How long would it take Iran to move replacements into place? Days? A couple of weeks? So let's say we deploy Marines or whoever to control the high ground on the north side of the strait so Iran can't redeploy. How many will be killed? And how long do we keep them there? And what does the Iranian version of ISIS look like? And once we finally get tired of spending trillions of dollars and losing thousands of American soldiers and finally pull out, how is there any chance whatsoever the current powerbrokers don't resume control, just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan?

The only way this war had ANY chance of success is if the US and Israel had coordinated in advance with a group within Iran that was willing and capable to seize power after the chaos of the first attacks. It was clear from the second day of the war that had not happened. And we've been fighting a pointless conflict ever since.
 
ZenMode said:
Their military was dead before the fight started. Their Air Force , among other things, includes F-14s from the 1970s. Within about a day, the number of missiles they launched dropped by ~90% because every time they fired one, we'd pin-point it's location and destroy the launcher.

They have nothing but being an irritant at this point, which is why they're flaunting their DRONE collection.
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"irritant" ? Well that irritant has taken control of the Gulf and the Strait. When shipping traffic is normalized, then you can get back to us about that "irritant".
 
ZenMode said:
I don't take his word. I look at the details of the situation to form an opinion. The US military is absolutely pummeling Iran. They can't retaliate against the US or Israel, so they're taking pot shots to stir up trouble; a last gasp.

The post I responded to was a bunch of "This could happen. That could happen" doom & gloom, mostly related so the strait of Hormuz. A couple pages later, what do I see? The US is sending Tripoli to reopen Hormuz. Did anyone actually think the US wouldn't be able to re-open Hormuz?
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We could have kept it open without starting this stupid war to begin with. Would have prevented a bunch of other issues we are currently facing and will face in the future.
 
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