Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR

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I doubt sufficiently large armed “liberal insurgent groups” exist in Iran to fight the IRGC.

Iraq’s population in 2003 was about 25 million; Iran’s population in 2026 is 93 million.

How many hundreds of thousands of US Troops would need to be on the ground to create regime change in Iran?

Didn’t Gen. Eric Shinseki, Army Chief of Staff, estimate that it would take “several hundred thousand soldiers” to occupy Iraq?
Yes, and that was my point. The American public doesn’t have great insight into what’s happening inside Iran, and there’s definitely a nontrivial insurgency movement there. When this kicked off Friday night, I was hopeful the administration knew more than we did and the CIA and Mossad had been able to organize an opposition capable of rising to the moment. In the absence of that, this whole war is idiotic. And it’s now clear no such planning had happened.
 
I don't know what you're referring to reading but I sincerely doubt that is happening. Iran lost its senior leadership in the first hours of the US/Israel strikes. US/Israeli losses pale in comparison to that alone.

Is it possible we underestimated certain aspects of Iranian defenses? Sure. But the most that would mean is that we are incurring some unavoidable and unnecessary casualties. there's not really any realistic way for us to "lose" this sort of conflict with Iran in a military sense. I don't mean that this whole thing can't or won't be seen as a net negative for the US in the long run. But if that happens it won't be because we "got our asses handed to us."
Oh yeah, I hear you. I think we agree- I'm just doing a really poor job of articulating it. We almost certainly aren't in any true danger of being overwhelmed militarily by Iran, or even being defeated militarily by Iran. But from a strategic standpoint, initiating a war like this when our own top military brass was warning of the dangers of it, and doing so when we are at critically low levels of interceptor missiles, is a huge blunder. It's going to enable Iran to inflict much greater damage and casualties than it otherwise would/should have. And from an optics standpoint, it does not bode well for future conflicts with China who is undoubtedly watching and studying this closely. I also think we're going to find a lot more difficulty moving forward in having other countries allow us to maintain military bases on their soil which will greatly diminish our tactical abilities to wage war or respond abroad.
 
Change mean to whatever you want. "Willingness to be combative" or something like that. The tone that Dems have taken with Pubs absolutely has been a weakness. But a willingness to be more verbally combative, and less of a concern about being crass, is more of a window dressing issue, not a substantive issue, IMO.
Fine but we live in a reality defined by attention grabbing communication. If you do not have the stomach for that reality you are unilaterally disarming.
 
The Iran of the 1970s triggered the Iranian Revolution, which resulted in the Iran we’ve been dealing with the for past 4.5 decades and has been one of the bases for much of the animosity Iran has had toward us dating back to the 1970s. It was also an oppressive regime.
Partly true. While SAVAK was wicked, the educated pushed for a pre-Islamic identity that emphasized Persian heritage and secularity. This greatly disturbed an element of the population. There was a real effort to "westernize". Women right's were fundamentally expanded and many of those reforms hold(voting, marriage rights, the right to education). There was also a huge distinction between rural advancement vs urban advancement with the city people earning much, much more. My take is that the 60s/70s were much more progressive than the post Islamic Revolution environment. That's the Iran the youth want to return to. Secularity and individual rights within a welfare state.
 
Expanding war with Iran: A top Iranian official said Tehran “will not negotiate” with the US. Israel and Hezbollah are trading blows as the conflict widens, while explosions have been heard in Gulf cities including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. Here’s a look at the war in maps and charts.

The current "top Iranian official"
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Fine but we live in a reality defined by attention grabbing communication. If you do not have the stomach for that reality you are unilaterally disarming.
I'm not saying I don't have the stomach for it. I welcome it, as I said in my first post. I wasn't using the term "mean" to suggest I disagreed with the tweet. We should be meaner to Republic elected officials. I just think that it won't accomplish much on its own. It is a step in the right direction, but only a step. I'm just responding to the original poster saying that tweets like that "are precisely what has missing from the Democratic Party." it's one thing that has bee missing. You are right that grabbing attention is one thing Dems need to do better. But that still leaves the matter of what to do with the attention once you get it.
 
I am 71 ."My" country has by far the most powerful war machine in the world-has had that my whole life
Other than a couple one offs and the original desert storm , we have "lost" every war we have been in during my time on earth...Or certainly not "won".
It doesn't usually work and costs are enormous-all kinds of costs
 
Partly true. While SAVAK was wicked, the educated pushed for a pre-Islamic identity that emphasized Persian heritage and secularity. This greatly disturbed an element of the population. There was a real effort to "westernize". Women right's were fundamentally expanded and many of those reforms hold(voting, marriage rights, the right to education). There was also a huge distinction between rural advancement vs urban advancement with the city people earning much, much more. My take is that the 60s/70s were much more progressive than the post Islamic Revolution environment. That's the Iran the youth want to return to. Secularity and individual rights within a welfare state.
Which is funny since the administration oppose that in the here and now in the US.
 
The most interesting part of recent Iranian history to me is its role in WWII. Without Iran, the Lend-Lease pipeline to the Caucasus and the Volga would not have been realistically possible, and the Soviet victories in those areas are what won the war more than anything else. The Soviets and the Americans/British were jockeying over future control of Iran throughout the war, but in that moment, the Iranians were immensely helpful to the Allied war effort.
 
I don't think it's that we have no geopolitical strategy. It's just that the strategy is written in crayon and fails in innumerable ways to appreciate the complexities of actual geopolitics. The current strategy is basically just "give us what we want, or we will threaten and/or attack you."
It's transactional, so there is no strategy...in any traditional American sense.
 
Yes, and that was my point. The American public doesn’t have great insight into what’s happening inside Iran, and there’s definitely a nontrivial insurgency movement there. When this kicked off Friday night, I was hopeful the administration knew more than we did and the CIA and Mossad had been able to organize an opposition capable of rising to the moment. In the absence of that, this whole war is idiotic. And it’s now clear no such planning had happened.
Yes, and don't forget that the Trump admin scrapped and/or undermined a number of the "soft power" tools that would have been useful in actually aiding an Iranian resistance, like Voice for America and Radio Free Europe.

I'm afraid we are going to get another great demonstration here of how you can't bomb a country into stable democracy.
 
Partly true. While SAVAK was wicked, the educated pushed for a pre-Islamic identity that emphasized Persian heritage and secularity. This greatly disturbed an element of the population. There was a real effort to "westernize". Women right's were fundamentally expanded and many of those reforms hold(voting, marriage rights, the right to education). There was also a huge distinction between rural advancement vs urban advancement with the city people earning much, much more. My take is that the 60s/70s were much more progressive than the post Islamic Revolution environment. That's the Iran the youth want to return to. Secularity and individual rights within a welfare state.
I don't think anyone is disputing that. But that doesn't mean 60s/70s Iran was anything resembling "liberal."
 
The most interesting part of recent Iranian history to me is its role in WWII. Without Iran, the Lend-Lease pipeline to the Caucasus and the Volga would not have been realistically possible, and the Soviet victories in those areas are what won the war more than anything else. The Soviets and the Americans/British were jockeying over future control of Iran throughout the war, but in that moment, the Iranians were immensely helpful to the Allied war effort.

Iran was on the way to returning to a significant player in the world stage who could be an ally, when we decided to hedge our bets in 1954 and install the Shah. A huge mistake and we've been paying for it, especially since 1979.
 
Yes, and that was my point. The American public doesn’t have great insight into what’s happening inside Iran, and there’s definitely a nontrivial insurgency movement there. When this kicked off Friday night, I was hopeful the administration knew more than we did and the CIA and Mossad had been able to organize an opposition capable of rising to the moment. In the absence of that, this whole war is idiotic. And it’s now clear no such planning had happened.
Because Trump is incapable of strategy beyond the whim of the moment.
 
I don't think anyone is disputing that. But that doesn't mean 60s/70s Iran was anything resembling "liberal."
I'm not suggesting it was liberal. I don't think many countries then were, including us. But to equate the Shah's regime to the Islamic Republic is telling.
 
What a tool. Hes a caricature of himself.
Another quote:

“… “No, but we are not going into the exercise of what we will or will not do,” he said, before pointedly adding, “It is a fallacy that this department or presidents should tell the American people and our enemies, ‘Here is what we’ll do, here is how long we’ll go, how far we’ll go, what we’re willing to do and not do.’ It is foolishness!”…”
 
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