Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR

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Duke Mu said:
Global commodity markets don't work that way.
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It depends if the shortage is a supply or demand shock. In a supply shock, there's not enough to go around. Someone will have to do with less, and that will likely be the people most exposed to the shock. Oil travels, but not infinitely. If you have a tanker that goes from Brazil to Africa and back, it could start ferrying oil to Japan but it's more expensive that way and the logistical requirements are different. As are the regulatory requirements in many cases.

Plus, there's a reliance issue. If a country has to replace 10% of its supply, it might be able to do that on a spot market. If a country has to replace 90% of its supply, it's going need a bigger and better and probably more expensive strategy.
 
Calheel said:
They do to an extent. In an extreme situation, the US could institute price controls on WTI and bar any exports.

Japan does not have that luxury. It must get oil from other countries.
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I think this is correct and I would add that the difference doesn't require price controls.

If Japan can't get oil from Iran, then maybe it looks to Canada. But Canada has a limited pipe and port capacity for export. It might be able to increase its volume 10-20% but it would take time to expand capacity to more. Meanwhile, it will still send crude down to the US. It is feasible for the oil to flow to the Gulf and then from there to Japan, but it's not cheap. Japan would have to pay more per barrel. And it might not be able to get enough at an affordable price
 
dukeman92 said:
I assume at their current usage rate. What if that goes up? Say a world war breaks out...
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At their current usage rate, but it assumes their external supply is cut off completely, from what I understand.

In the case of a world war, Japan's oil would probably last even longer because there would be much less exporting or consumption of fuel. And Japan is unlikely to be involved in any fighting.
 
superrific said:
At their current usage rate, but it assumes their external supply is cut off completely, from what I understand.

In the case of a world war, Japan's oil would probably last even longer because there would be much less exporting or consumption of fuel. And Japan is unlikely to be involved in any fighting.
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Unlikely at first. A world war would be hard for a nation like Japan to stay completely out of. But your point remains, they can hold out a while.
 
dukeman92 said:
Unlikely at first. A world war would be hard for a nation like Japan to stay completely out of. But your point remains, they can hold out a while.
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They have barely budged from their stance as the Japanese Self Defense Force. They might not can stay out of it but it might have to come to them.
 
mpaer said:
And we still import a LOT of oil This self sufficiency talk is not real truthful
worldpopulationreview.com

US Oil Imports by Country 2026

Data on US oil imports by country, highlighting the volume of oil imported from various nations over time.
worldpopulationreview.com worldpopulationreview.com
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We sell and buy oil on the commodities market while serving as a major exporter. We export more refined petroleum and import more heavy crude, cheap oil. Top importers: Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Brazil.

Exports: Mexico, Canada, China, SK, Japan - more refined and light crude at higher prices. Buy low, sell high. Gum up the works and industry profit margins are hit hard. Everyone suffers...even the billionaires... who along with GOP senators are looking for the exit ramp. WHT are the Dems?

It's amazing how clueless Trump and his dwindling MAGA cultists are at the fundamentals of capitalism, trade, and business.
 
Calheel said:
They do to an extent. In an extreme situation, the US could institute price controls on WTI and bar any exports.

Japan does not have that luxury. It must get oil from other countries.
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Doubling down on an ignorant statement doesn't make it real. You should sit this one out.
 
superrific said:
It depends if the shortage is a supply or demand shock. In a supply shock, there's not enough to go around. Someone will have to do with less, and that will likely be the people most exposed to the shock. Oil travels, but not infinitely. If you have a tanker that goes from Brazil to Africa and back, it could start ferrying oil to Japan but it's more expensive that way and the logistical requirements are different. As are the regulatory requirements in many cases.

Plus, there's a reliance issue. If a country has to replace 10% of its supply, it might be able to do that on a spot market. If a country has to replace 90% of its supply, it's going need a bigger and better and probably more expensive strategy.
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It still doesn't work that way.

Here's a start:

The Economist Guide to Commodities 2nd edition: Producers, players and prices; markets, consumers and trends: Caroline Bain: 9781788166027: Amazon.com: Books

The Economist Guide to Commodities 2nd edition: Producers, players and prices; markets, consumers and trends [Caroline Bain] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Economist Guide to Commodities 2nd edition: Producers, players and prices; markets, consumers and trends
www.amazon.com
 
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