Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR

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ZZLPHeels said:
The person posted the article without further comment as an attempt to bolster an argument that they had made previously. It turned out that the article actually did the opposite. That was one of my reasons for highlighting that portion of the article, as it directly contradicted the point that the poster had been trying to make when they posted it.
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Actually, it didn't if you had looked up and read the links.
 
Bobfripp said:
Invest heavily in renewable energy sources, like, NOW.

China gets something like 50% of their oil through the Strait of Hormuz. They are not going to be happy.
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China can buy more oil from Russia (cheap) and Canada. The oil futures $ will surpass $100/ba. Putin and Exxon will be very happy.
 
Duke Mu said:
Actually, it didn't if you had looked up and read the links.
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The article itself absolutely contradicted them. The links buried within the article may or may not have, but I didn't read all of them. If the links were in contradiction to the article that was citing them, that's a problem with the author of that article.
 
theel4life said:
Just filled up here in Randolph county. $2.89. We will see what it looks like tomorrow.
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I'm in NOVA right now, so more expensive than most places even when it's cheap. Yesterday I filled my GFs SUV up for 297 at BJ'S. It's now at 307. I suspect it'll go up another 10-12 cents by tomorrow and by 30 cents by Wednesday when I need to head back to Williamsburg to go into the office.
 
uncmba said:
Fairly easy for them to close the Strait.
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Not really.

The Fifth Fleet is stationed in Bahrain. It is really unlikely the try to close the strait. Also it would be self defeating since their own oil industry uses the strait to export to China.
 
Duke Mu said:
Bibi sat on the intelligence for months that a terrorist attack by Hamas was imminent. Deliberately.
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He certainly did. I defer to Occam's Razor in most cases. Could be he was just wanting a distraction from all his crimes and prosecution. So he could defer it. But given what we know now about all their other operations (including somehow having a drone base in Iran?), the mind wonders.

Regarding Hamas and Oct. 7th, I don't know what they were hoping to accomplish, strategically. I get it as a mere reaction, like a wild, caged animal lashing out. Being a Palestinian is obviously a very difficult thing. I'm not defending Hamas. They're assholes. But I get the sense of wanting to finally "break out." But they're not dumb. They surely knew that wouldn't happen. I suspect that, knowing Israel would respond as it has (by which I mean, bombing the shit out of everything and committing a genocide), they were gambling that the world would turn against Israel. Provided there was any actual strategy involved in the decision. Europe largely has but America has not. If America doesn't turn against Israel, then it doesn't matter.

Hamas gambled and lost.
 
Duke Mu said:
We had no idea until testing whether the chain reaction could or would be contained. We had an hypothesis.
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Theoretically we knew it, before the 1940s. What you're talking about is what I referred to as "engineering." And, we didn't want it to be contained.
 
superrific said:
Well, it's not an important point but I suspect that our greater knowledge of nuclear forces eases the engineering challenges. The neutron was discovered in 1932 and I don't think we can meaningfully talk about nuclear physics before that date. So that puts the field at age 10 in 1942. It is now 90+ years old. I think that counts as infancy, but more importantly it doesn't matter.

The point is, as you say, that the physics is not terribly complicated, and the engineering problems have mostly been solved. It's just a question of running the centrifuges.
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I completely agree with your last paragraph. Regarding "nuclear physics" perhaps I should have been more precise and prefaced everything with that I'm talking about theoretical aspects - more education was in theoretical physics, not experimental physics - of which I have only some knowledge. The neutron was predicted well before it was observed in experiment. We had a very solid understanding of the physics well before the 1940s.
 
p5mmr9 said:
Not really.

The Fifth Fleet is stationed in Bahrain. It is really unlikely the try to close the strait. Also it would be self defeating since their own oil industry uses the strait to export to China.
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On paper, Iran could mine the strait west and south of a passage that allows exports from Bandar Abbas to move out.

www.ainvest.com

Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Explosion: A Geopolitical Flashpoint for Oil Markets

Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Explosion: A Geopolitical Flashpoint for Oil Markets
www.ainvest.com www.ainvest.com


Regardless, man we really need to get back on the Green Energy path!
 
Slightly unrelated, but has anyone else ever thought about gas prices after Katrina?

If I remember correctly, it was still only around $2/gallon or so at the time. May have still been $1 something.

Anyhow, skyrocketed after. And they never took the prices back down, even after recovering.

I guess they figured we were willing to pay. And we were.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
HahaA sign of bad-faith arguing is conspiratorially believing that everyone who disagrees with you is somehow the same poster. That, combined with your intentional misreading or disregarding of articles that other posters have provided to us is your second strike here. Truly a horrible outing for you today, and I expected better. That's my bad.
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Ha Ha Smile GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Hit dog hollers. Nothing wrong with you posting here, Dr. Lynch. Just good for everyone to know who they’re dealing with.
 
Wheels81 said:
That would be met with resistance from the Drill, Baby, Drill crowd.
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Ironically, oil futures were too low before all this to encourage more exploration. The US already can produce plenty of oil. But our refining capacity is finite and were close to max...and oil is a global market. Even with the US and Canada increasing oil production and exports, O&G futures would still skyrocket.

The Saudis would not be able to export a lot of their oil. They've have to use the Suez Canal, which often is traffic jammed.
 
MendotoManteo said:
Slightly unrelated, but has anyone else ever thought about gas prices after Katrina?

If I remember correctly, it was still only around $2/gallon or so at the time. May have still been $1 something.

Anyhow, skyrocketed after. And they never took the prices back down, even after recovering.

I guess they figured we were willing to pay. And we were.
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Rocket up, then feather float down consumer pricing is profit making, price gouging tactic, is always done in any crisis-shaped-looking-like thing. As it was during Covid-19, too. It has little or sometimes nothing to do with actual production shortage, but CEO decisions on how much to do it, and any risk of being called on it.
 
Completely hypothetical, but this scenario would allow Iran to export substantial oil flows, but would restrict Iraq, Saudis, Qatar, and UAE.



mines.jpg
 
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