Iran War | Political & Economic Impacts

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I still haven't heard a reason Iran would agree to reopen Hormuz. We killed their religious leader and head of state. We bombed a school and killed 100+ kids. We've bombed indiscriminately across the country. And yet, their government is intact and they have the ability to restock their weapons capabilities through land routes to Russia. What reason do they have to go back to the status quo ante?
 
Looks like oil futures have dropped. While I don't know much about the markets, even I can predict by Thursday or Friday it will be a different story.
 
lawtig02 said:
I still haven't heard a reason Iran would agree to reopen Hormuz. We killed their religious leader and head of state. We bombed a school and killed 100+ kids. We've bombed indiscriminately across the country. And yet, their government is intact and they have the ability to restock their weapons capabilities through land routes to Russia. What reason do they have to go back to the status quo ante?
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The reason is to stop our current military campaign. We are degrading their military capabilities. Its not zero, and they can still do important things like blockade the straits and strike at regional allies, but their Navy is in taters and their Army is heading that way. After the war ends, an Iranian military that can repel threats from hostile neighbors and suppress threats from within is very important to them.

Basically, both sides have good reasons for this to end in a negotiated peace. Not sure if either side is capable of getting to a compromise that allows that to happen.
 
OMG! 1..5 Billion? You know yesterday I noticed the U.S. is ranked 24th on the list of least corrupt countries. I would bet good money our ranking is falling as I post this.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
The reason is to stop our current military campaign. We are degrading their military capabilities. Its not zero, and they can still do important things like blockade the straits and strike at regional allies, but their Navy is in taters and their Army is heading that way. After the war ends, an Iranian military that can repel threats from hostile neighbors and suppress threats from within is very important to them.

Basically, both sides have good reasons for this to end in a negotiated peace. Not sure if either side is capable of getting to a compromise that allows that to happen.
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Let's play this out a little.

1. Iran's web of military and police capabilities is extensive and overlapping. We could eliminate their military capabilities completely and they would probably still have plenty of resources to quell a domestic uprising. That means the regime, whatever it looks like now, is probably not that concerned about its people experiencing hardship.

2. Iran has suffered enormous loss as a result of this campaign, which will cost billions to repair. Iran does not have those billions.

3. Iran has proven, once again, that closing the Strait will bring its aggressors to their knees. And in the world of drones, closing the Strait is extremely easy and cheap.

4. Iran has no reason to trust that Israel will not keep bombing it and assassinating its leaders even if it agrees to some tentative ceasefire with the US.

Maybe you're right and Iran will agree to just pretend the last four weeks didn't happen. But if I'm them, there's no fucking way I agree to open the Strait at this point.
 
nycfan said:
Markets overnight must’ve freaked him out

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Just want to be sure everyone's seeing Trump's elaboration on this today. The "very good and productive conversations" he's referencing are not with the people in control of Iran. To the extent they're happening at all, they're with Iranian dissidents who we and Israel are HOPING will be able to rise up against the regime, but who, as of now, have no ability whatsoever to do so.

Our president, the commander in chief of the greatest military ever assembled, and the ostensible leader of the free world, has gone all in with the Richard Bissell of 2026.
 
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