Iran War | Political & Economic Impacts

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lawtig02 said:
Let's play this out a little.

1. Iran's web of military and police capabilities is extensive and overlapping. We could eliminate their military capabilities completely and they would probably still have plenty of resources to quell a domestic uprising. That means the regime, whatever it looks like now, is probably not that concerned about its people experiencing hardship.

2. Iran has suffered enormous loss as a result of this campaign, which will cost billions to repair. Iran does not have those billions.

3. Iran has proven, once again, that closing the Strait will bring its aggressors to their knees. And in the world of drones, closing the Strait is extremely easy and cheap.

4. Iran has no reason to trust that Israel will not keep bombing it and assassinating its leaders even if it agrees to some tentative ceasefire with the US.

Maybe you're right and Iran will agree to just pretend the last four weeks didn't happen. But if I'm them, there's no fucking way I agree to open the Strait at this point.
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"2. Iran has suffered enormous loss as a result of this campaign, which will cost billions to repair. Iran does not have those billions."

However, it has oil and it has been shipping that oil out each day the straight is closed PLUS charging fees for tankers to have safe passage. As an oil exporting country, Iran will have the ability to generate the revenue to replace its weapons. We are also seeing that waging the conventional war (at which the US excels and Israel as our proxy) does not necessarily translate into victory against asymmetric warfare at which the Iranians are showing so far in my view to be the most capable opponent that the US has faced since the Vietnamese (and we arguably lost to others lower on the list such as Afghanistan and Iraq).
 
Mundial said:
"2. Iran has suffered enormous loss as a result of this campaign, which will cost billions to repair. Iran does not have those billions."

However, it has oil and it has been shipping that oil out each day the straight is closed PLUS charging fees for tankers to have safe passage. As an oil exporting country, Iran will have the ability to generate the revenue to replace its weapons. We are also seeing that waging the conventional war (at which the US excels and Israel as our proxy) does not necessarily translate into victory against asymmetric warfare at which the Iranians are showing so far in my view to be the most capable opponent that the US has faced since the Vietnamese (and we arguably lost to others lower on the list such as Afghanistan and Iraq).
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Yes. And if Iran continues to control the Strait, the price of that oil it's selling will just increase.

The decision to initiate this war should have turned on one observation -- "Mr. President, you remember those Shahed drones that have been so damaging to Ukraine? Those are made by Iran."

Drone warfare changes EVERYTHING.
 
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TRUMP: Well I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible. We don't even know that Iran gets that money. Any small amount of money Iran gets is not gonna make a difference in this war

COLLINS: Even $14b you don't think helps them?

TRUMP: Where's the $14b? I don't think they're getting the money.
 


COLLINS: That Iran has said yes to?

TRUMP: They're not gonna have a nuclear weapon. That's number 1, 2, and 3

COLLINS: They've said yes to that?

TRUMP: They agreed to that
 
nycfan said:


TRUMP: Well I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible. We don't even know that Iran gets that money. Any small amount of money Iran gets is not gonna make a difference in this war

COLLINS: Even $14b you don't think helps them?

TRUMP: Where's the $14b? I don't think they're getting the money.
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You mean Obama is not delivering $14B in cash on a pallet? So FOS.
 
nycfan said:


COLLINS: That Iran has said yes to?

TRUMP: They're not gonna have a nuclear weapon. That's number 1, 2, and 3

COLLINS: They've said yes to that?

TRUMP: They agreed to that
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Which they weren't going to build...at least until we blew the last Ayatollah up.
 
nycfan said:


TRUMP: Well I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible. We don't even know that Iran gets that money. Any small amount of money Iran gets is not gonna make a difference in this war

COLLINS: Even $14b you don't think helps them?

TRUMP: Where's the $14b? I don't think they're getting the money.
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This is an even more incompetent version of what Bessent kept saying yesterday on MTP. Bessent said repeatedly Iran would "get the money anyway, but more of it" although he never explained how. Trump is now saying he doesn't think Iran will get the money at all. Neither answer makes sense. The only thing that COULD make sense would be for the US Navy to stop and seize those tankers carrying Iranian oil, but that doesn't seem to be one of the several idiotic options on the table.
 
nycfan said:


COLLINS: That Iran has said yes to?

TRUMP: They're not gonna have a nuclear weapon. That's number 1, 2, and 3

COLLINS: They've said yes to that?

TRUMP: They agreed to that
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Just want to reiterate, when Trump says “they,” he’s referring to Iranian dissidents who we would like to take control of the country, but who have no chance of doing so.
 
That's a new game. I'll try it with my wife.

"No, I'm not cooking dinner tonight."
"Why not?"
"For a hundred different reasons."
"Such as?"
"I don't want to. That's numbers 1 through 99."
 
lawtig02 said:
Just want to reiterate, when Trump says “they,” he’s referring to Iranian dissidents who we would like to take control of the country, but who have no chance of doing so.
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I'm pretty sure you are giving him too much credit. When he says they, he usually means the big strong men who approach him with tears in their eyes.

Trump has talked to nobody. None of his people have talked to anybody.
 
lawtig02 said:
Just want to reiterate, when Trump says “they,” he’s referring to Iranian dissidents who we would like to take control of the country, but who have no chance of doing so.
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So...imaginary people and reason whether they answered the phone or not.

Look, Trump is just making this all up on the fly. Another gaslighting session.
 


By “everybody” he can only mean himself. No one with any working knowledge of Iran was surprised.
 
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