Iran War | Political & Economic Impacts

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Let's be honest here. Bibi has something on Trump, and knows how to stroke his ego.

Israel set up Epstein to honey pot Pubs and Dems with minors.

Bill C probably was another victim of Bibi's honeypot operation.

www.timesofisrael.com

Netanyahu said to have offered Lewinsky tapes for Pollard

New critical book on the Clinton family claims that Israel tapped White House phones, blackmailed president with recordings of intern
www.timesofisrael.com www.timesofisrael.com
 
BlueSteel said:
There are gonna be a lot of arrests in few years. And I sincerely hope that convictions amount to jail time, and that it is actually served. No more letting these criminals get away with it. The lawlessness of this administration is clear as day. It's like they're daring us to follow through. It's time to fucking follow through. Trump and many of his cohorts should die in jail.
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To reach that point there needs to be a lot of suffering first. If 40% of the country is still MAGA, everything will be seen as political.
 
Calheel said:
Markets open and a collective shrug ensues. TACO is baked into the market these days.
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Last week Trump was threatening to wipe out civilization in Iran if they refused to accept his terms. As of today, Iran has formerly rejected Trump’s terms and Trump hasn’t given any indication that he will escalate or make good on his maximalist threats.
 


🎁. https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodi...8?st=UnW1H1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Dated Brent, which reflects oil for actual physical delivery 10 to 30 days out, has risen to $132.74 a barrel as of Monday. Brent futures for the nearest delivery settled at $99.36 a barrel. The gap between the two prices is historic, according to Gary Ross, chief executive officer of Black Gold Investors. Never has the market seen an oil-market disruption of this size, or such uncertainty over what might happen next, he added.

One explanation is the severe physical shortage in oil markets. This tends to amplify the spread between spot and futures prices. Front-month futures are actually quite disconnected from the physical barrels—both in timing and physical reality, Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy, said on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference last month. This means the futures price doesn’t necessarily converge with the spot price, according to Ernsberger.…”

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nycfan said:


🎁. https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodi...8?st=UnW1H1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Dated Brent, which reflects oil for actual physical delivery 10 to 30 days out, has risen to $132.74 a barrel as of Monday. Brent futures for the nearest delivery settled at $99.36 a barrel. The gap between the two prices is historic, according to Gary Ross, chief executive officer of Black Gold Investors. Never has the market seen an oil-market disruption of this size, or such uncertainty over what might happen next, he added.

One explanation is the severe physical shortage in oil markets. This tends to amplify the spread between spot and futures prices. Front-month futures are actually quite disconnected from the physical barrels—both in timing and physical reality, Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy, said on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference last month. This means the futures price doesn’t necessarily converge with the spot price, according to Ernsberger.…”

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“… Fast-growing options markets exaggerate the price moves in both directions.

And just who is causing the severe price swings? It may be easy to point the finger at individual investors, computer algorithms or generalists, but that doesn’t seem to be a satisfactory explanation.

Some huge oil-futures trades were suspiciously well timed relative to President Trump’s social-media posts. For example, more than $760 million worth of Brent and WTI futures changed handsabout 15 minutes before Trump announced in a Truth Social post that he was postponing strikes on Iranian plants thanks to “productive” talks with Iran. The White House has warned staff against insider trading. The last thing traders want is to be caught on the wrong side of insider bets.

A third reason: Financial oil markets simply have a more balanced mix of buyers and sellers right now. In the physical market, there are clearly more buyers desperate for oil than sellers, whose supply is stuck in the Middle East.

Sellers in the futures market include oil producers, who were relatively underhedged before the conflict, locking in future prices, according to Bouchouev. They also include traders buying oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The SPR release is structured as a loan: For every barrel that a trader buys from the SPR, the trader must return about 1.2 barrels in the future. To hedge this, traders are selling oil futures for earlier delivery and buying futures for later delivery. …”
 
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