Israel’s War With Iran Has Reordered the Middle East—but Not as Expected
Israel’s military success against Iran undermines one incentive for Saudi normalization and raises concerns about its growing power
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https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-ea...5?st=9BGkxu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
“… The Trump administration and Israel’s government have signaled they want to make a new push for normalization. But with Iran now on the back foot, there is less incentive for Saudi Arabia to set aside other concerns to move forward. It will need time to assess the implications of the shocking advantage Israel demonstrated with its military and intelligence capabilities—and its high tolerance for the risks of using them.
Senior Gulf officials are concerned their investment in relations with Washington, including hosting President Trump’s
high-profile trip to the Gulf last month,
haven’t paid off in influence. Trump’s repeated encouragement of Israel’s attacks and threats against Iran’s supreme leader made them fear a wider war.
In the end, Trump ordered a limited strike on Iran’s main nuclear sites, then brokered a cease-fire that stopped the fighting, at one point warning Israel to turn its bombers around. But while the worst scenarios were avoided, Gulf leaders are going to reassess the landscape before moving forward.
“Everything is in flux,” said Bader al-Saif, an expert on Persian Gulf and Arabian affairs at Kuwait University.
…The Saudis have made it clear they won’t do a deal while the war continues unresolved in the Gaza Strip, where more than 56,000 people have been killed so far, according to Palestinian authorities who don’t say how many were combatants.
Saudi Arabia is also insisting on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state—something Israel firmly rejects—in hopes of addressing what it sees as the root of the conflict.
“It’s going to take a lot of work, and the space isn’t there now,” a Saudi official said about establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. “The urgency is the state of Palestine and not the Iranian risk.”…”
