Latin America Politics General Thread

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I get you on the crime reduction popularity. My Super here in NYC is Salvadoran and I listened in on a very interesting conversation between him and a Colombian about authoritarianism and the repercussions (The Colombian is a brilliant guy and not a fan of Bukele at all -- the Super is a bit dull and loves him). The Colombian was all about "be careful what you wish for" because once a caudillo dictator gets the power he will never, ever give it up and eventually he'll have to be dealt with violently.

Add in Bukele's crypto fascination, which is going to turn into a lead anchor on the country I suspect and you've got a recipe for disaster. Unfortunately, the countries and people in the region are very tightly connected in so many ways.
 
I don't see Buckle will give up power easily. And we know that absolute power corrupts very easily.

His brother runs their basketball federation and their entire sports structure. He has poured big time money into their hoops team; have beaten him 5 times during my sting (4 of those were blowouts at home). His wife is Costa Rican...I'm sure he's very annoyed.
 
Terrible news. More trumpism in the region is bad for everyone. Threatening to the democratic opening in Guatemala and justice all around.
 
Translated (by a bot I suspect)

From President Petro of Colombia:

"Today I will check if Trump's words in English translate as the national press says. Therefore, later I will respond to them once I know what Trump's illegitimate threat really means.

As for Mr. Rubio, who separates the president's authorities and says that the president does not want to collaborate while the authorities do; I request that he read the Constitution of Colombia because his information is completely wrong, it is the product of interests of Colombian politicians linked familially or commercially to the mafia, who want the breakup of relations between the US and Colombia so that cocaine narcotrafficking explodes in the world.I ordered the removal of several intelligence colonels from my police for giving false information against the state. Don't let Rubio be believing those fallacies.

The President of Colombia is the supreme commander of the military and police forces of Colombia by constitutional order, a constitution from 34 years ago that my movement made after laying down arms in the insurgency and signing a Pact: a new constitution by popular election of the National Constituent Assembly.My movement, the M19, previously risen up in insurgent arms, won the first relative vote by lists of constituents elected by the people. It was our first electoral victory. With other forces and in respect for pluralism and diversity, we made a Pact: the new constitution of Colombia that had to build a social state under the rule of law in search of guaranteeing the fundamental and universal rights of the people.

Well then, as supreme commander of the military forces and always protected by the constitution, I ordered the largest seizure of cocaine in world history, I stopped the growth of coca leaf crops and began a great voluntary crop substitution plan by the coca-growing peasant. The process is at 30,000 hectares of coca and it is my priority as a public policy of crop substitution, I direct that policy. Under my orders, El Plateado, Cauca, the Wall Street of cocaine, was taken, which previous governments let grow. I have ordered bombings respecting all norms of humanitarian law and with the killing and capture of first-order commanders of armed groups subordinated to narcotrafficking. They, in their tactic, recruit minors so that their leaders are not bombed.

If you bomb even one of these groups without sufficient intelligence, you will kill many children.

If you bomb peasants, thousands of guerrillas will return in the mountains.

And if you arrest the president whom a good part of my people want and respect, you will unleash the popular jaguar.

Every soldier of Colombia has an order from now on: every commander of the public force who prefers the flag of the US to the flag of Colombia must immediately withdraw from the institution by order of the bases and the troops and mine. The constitution orders the public force to defend popular sovereignty.

Although I have not been a military man, I know about war and clandestinity. I swore not to touch a weapon again since the 1989 Peace Pact, but for the Homeland I will take up arms again that I do not want.I am not illegitimate, nor am I a narco, I only have as assets my family home that I still pay for with my salary. My bank statements have been published. No one could say that I have spent more than my salary. I am not greedy.

I have enormous trust in my people and that is why I have asked the people to defend the president from any illegitimate violent act against him. The way to defend me is to take power in all the municipalities of the country. The order to the public force is not to shoot the people but yes to the invader.I don't speak just to speak, I trust in the people and in the history of Colombia that Mr. Rubio has not read.

I trust in the soldier who knows he is a son of Bolívar and his tricolor flag.

So know that you are facing a commander of the people. Free Colombia forever.

Officers of Bolívar, break ranks and march at the step of victors."




 

Trump Is the Political Earthquake Shaking Latin America​

The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro has divided the region. But every nation wants to avoid being next.

By Jack Nicas and Ana Ionova

Jack Nicas reported from Mexico City, and Ana Ionova from Rio de Janeiro.
Jan. 11, 2026

By the time dawn broke on Jan. 3, WhatsApp had already lit up across Latin America with frantic messages from heads of state, grappling with how to respond to perhaps the region’s biggest political event in decades.

It was what some had wanted and others had feared: The United States had just swept into Venezuela and captured its president.

The responses exposed the fault lines that were already cracking Latin America apart.

The region's three largest nations — Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, all led by leftists — criticized the American seizure of President Nicolás Maduro with varying degrees of outrage and diplomacy.

A growing roster of right-wing countries, including Argentina, El Salvador and Ecuador, cheered on President Trump.

And a collection of smaller nations, like Guatemala and Peru, kept their heads down so Washington might not notice.

The divergent reactions show how an increasingly aggressive Trump administration is scrambling the politics of Latin America. While their public responses may be different, they all appear to share a common goal in a new era of U.S. interventionism: self-preservation.

“All of the countries are trying to avoid a conflict with Trump,” said Jorge G. Castañeda, a former Mexican foreign minister.

Mr. Trump has made it abundantly clear he wants to control the Americas, stating explicitly that “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.”

https://static01.nyt.com/images/202...jpqt/11int-latam-politics-jpqt-superJumbo.jpg

A look at Latin America’s four largest countries shows the new pressure Mr. Trump is putting on the region, and the limits he is running up against as well.

Cont.
 

Mexico​

Few foreign leaders are as exposed to Mr. Trump’s demands as President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico.

To meet them, her government has taken on drug cartels, stepped up enforcement at the border and imposed up to 50 percent tariffs on many Chinese goods.

In exchange, Mr. Trump says he likes her — while continuing to threaten unilateral strikes inside her country. On Thursday, Mr. Trump appeared to push past rhetoric and into plans. “We are going to start now hitting land with regard to the cartels,” he told Fox News. “The cartels are running Mexico.”

That pledge, days after U.S. aircraft bombed Venezuela, tightened the vice on Ms. Sheinbaum. Ms. Sheinbaum has in turn offered a fairly cautious reaction to Venezuela.

Ms. Sheinbaum has categorically rejected U.S. military action inside other nations, especially her own, but her responses on Venezuela have been carefully worded. “Intervention has never brought democracy, never generated prosperity and never created lasting stability,” she said on Monday.

To avoid antagonizing Mr. Trump and the United States, her nation’s biggest trading partner by far, Ms. Sheinbaum has also been wary of tying Mexico too forcefully to global condemnations of the attack on Venezuela, according to a senior Mexican official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

While she agreed to sign a joint rejection of the U.S. action — along with Brazil, Colombia, Chile Uruguay and Spain — Mexico’s Foreign Ministry did not release it publicly. That 280-word statement also avoided mentioning the United States by name.

After Ms. Sheinbaum spoke with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil on Thursday, the Brazilian leader posted that the two leaders “repudiate the attacks.” Ms. Sheinbaum did not post.

Then on Friday, Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, spoke with Mr. Lula and President Gustavo Petro of Colombia. But Ms. Sheinbaum did not speak with her, the Mexican official said.

Instead, her government is increasingly concerned about U.S. strikes on her territory and is focused on trying to prevent them by hitting cartels harder and deepening a security partnership with the United States, the Mexican official said.



cont.
 

Brazil​

Mr. Lula has more latitude to stand up to the United States.

When Mr. Trump imposed steep tariffs on Brazil to try to scuttle the criminal case against an ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, Mr. Lula denounced the interference in Brazil’s judicial system and stood his ground.

Perhaps surprisingly, Mr. Lula came out on top: Mr. Bolsonaro went to prison; Mr. Lula got a chummy meeting with Mr. Trump; and Mr. Trump dropped the tariffs.

But Brazil is hardly Mexico. Mr. Lula’s defiance is enabled in large part by Brazil’s size, its distance from the United States and, most importantly, its enormous economic relationship with China. Brazil’s trade with China roughly doubles its trade with the United States.

On Friday, Mr. Lula got even more leverage: Brazil was one of four South American nations to secure a free-trade deal with the European Union.

Mr. Lula has also found that pushing back on Washington is good politics at home. His poll numbers rose during his feud, and he is now favored to win a fourth term this year.

So when the United States attacked Venezuela, Mr. Lula issued one of the clearest rebukes, calling it “yet another extremely dangerous precedent.”

At the same time, Mr. Lula has also been tactful. A punishing new fight with Mr. Trump, especially to defend an unpopular autocrat in Mr. Maduro, is risky for his presidential campaign, especially given Brazil’s energized, pro-Trump right. While speaking out, Mr. Lula has largely avoided naming Mr. Trump.

“Of course we want to have good relations with the United States. It’s a very important country in every sense. But there’s no way to avoid condemning this action,” Celso Amorim, Mr. Lula’s chief foreign policy adviser, said in an interview.

Before the Venezuela attack, “things were moving in a positive way,” he added, referring to the U.S.-Brazil relationship. “I still hope that’s possible.”

As Latin America’s elder statesman, Mr. Lula has tried to defuse tensions in the background. In a call on Thursday, Mr. Lula and Mr. Petro of Colombia discussed building a sort of diplomatic coalition against Mr. Trump’s interventions, hoping to win support from Mexico, Chile, France and Spain. But the idea was preliminary, according to a person present for the conversation.

Cont.
 

Colombia​

Mr. Petro had been far less diplomatic early on.

After Mr. Maduro’s capture, he posted online incessantly, sparring with Elon Musk, sharing gruesome photos of what appeared to be a casualty and saying, “Latin America must emancipate itself again.”

Mr. Trump, who had already targeted Mr. Petro, sharpened his threats. He called Mr. Petro a “sick man,” accused him of trafficking cocaine and said he “is not going to be doing it very long.” Asked whether he was considering military action against Colombia, he replied, “It sounds good to me.”

It set off an immediate crisis. Mr. Petro called on Colombians to take to the streets and said he would take up arms himself. The government expanded his personal security.

Then, suddenly, the two leaders appeared to make up.

In a nearly hourlong call on Wednesday partly brokered by Senator Rand Paul, a Republican from Kentucky wary of foreign wars, Mr. Petro spoke for most of the time, pledging to fight drug cartels. “I appreciated his call and tone,” Mr. Trump wrote online. They agreed to soon meet.

It was not Mr. Petro’s first gesture of conciliation. He has continued Colombia’s close coordination with U.S. authorities against drug trafficking, including increasing eradication of coca crops, despite once opposing the policy.

He, too, has political realities. While Mr. Petro is restricted to one term, his handpicked successor is on the ballot in May, and Colombians want to get along with Mr. Trump to avoid more tariffs — or an attack.

Cont.
 

Argentina​

Argentina was once so mired in financial crisis that it was hardly much of a player on the global stage. Mr. Trump has helped change that.

President Javier Milei has become Mr. Trump’s most enthusiastic ally in the region and, by extension, the leader of the Latin American right.

His efforts have paid off. When Mr. Milei was facing an economic and political meltdown last year, Mr. Trump threw him a $20 billion lifeline. One goal was to help Mr. Milei gain control of Argentina’s Congress in midterm elections. It worked. (It also enriched Mr. Trump’s allies.)

That help has come with strings attached. Argentina has agreed to changes Washington has sought, including on intellectual property and opening up its critical minerals. Mr. Milei’s embrace of American influence has also angered many Argentines.

But on the international front, Mr. Milei is in a relatively comfortable position. While other Latin American nations are being threatened with force, Mr. Milei is being praised. The Argentine president “continues to deliver with full force,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote online on Friday.

More allies are also emerging. Buoyed by concerns over insecurity and by Mr. Trump’s influence, Chile, Bolivia and Honduras have all swung to the right in recent months. And this year, Brazil, Colombia and Peru could follow, giving Mr. Trump like-minded leaders up and down the Americas.

Annie Correal contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia.
Jack Nicas is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief, leading coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
Ana Ionova is a contributor to The Times based in Rio de Janeiro, covering Brazil and neighboring countries.

www.nytimes.com

Trump Is the Political Earthquake Shaking Latin America

The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro has divided the region. But every nation wants to avoid being next.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 





Guatemalan Police regains control of prisons and frees 34 prison officers. They had remained in the hands of gang members for more than 36 hours in Fraijanes II prison and the Preventive Prison for Men in Zone 18, in Guatemala City.
 
donbosco said:



Click to expand...


Some additional context: CR is a few weeks away from the next election. This visit was perceived as away to bolster the outgoing's administration optics on security, which has been an issue for the last four years in particular (homicides per 100k have doubled in the last 8 years). The plan is to replicate the El Salvador mega-prison model. CR does desperately need to expand its prison capacity (overpopulated prisons have been an issue for 20 years), but the ES model is the wrong approach (CR civili liberties and sensibilities will never go for that draconian approach).

What does Buckle gain with this? Think he has two main objetives. First he wants to re-frame the perception of ES as an equal to CR, rather than in the subset of Guatemala and Honduras where it usually gets lumped. Here we are giving CR advice on how to get its act together. Second, he wants to solidify his position as the "leader" in Central America.

Curiously, Buckle avoided to get his picture taken with Chaves' handpicked successor, who's leading in the polls by a wide margin. The husband of one of his nieces is also a presidential candidate; while Buckle has nothing to do with that campaign its perceived that he was doing the guy a favor by not posing with the leading candidate.
 
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