From Boz
Popular and powerful
Claudia Sheinbaum
- Mexico’s president has an approval rating in the 60s or even low 70s. However, it is more complicated than the top line number. I discussed
Sheinbaum’s popularity in a newsletter for paying subscribers earlier this month, and I’ve unlocked that post for everyone today so you can read more. (If you appreciate the analysis, please
upgrade to being a paid subscriber to receive more).
Nayib Bukele
- Some polls still have his approval rating in the 90s. I think it’s probably closer to the mid- to high-60s, but that is still really good for any president anywhere. He does have weaknesses: the economy is not delivering on the promise of his security achievements, there is significant corruption within his government, and Salvadorans are aware of the authoritarian structures he has built to hold on to power. He is popular today. The concern is the model of a popular politician who eliminates checks and locks down the institutions, ensuring that when he eventually loses that popularity, there is no peaceful mechanism left to hold him accountable.
Luis Abinader
- The Dominican Republic’s president has sustained high approval ratings across a term and a half in office. He combines economic competence with an anti-corruption stance that has held up better in the public’s eyes than that of many other presidents who have attempted something similar. He manages Haiti-border politics in a way that is domestically popular even if it draws international criticism. He’s steady and effective.
One thing all three of the above presidents share is the lack of a credible opposition. In each country, opposition parties have been weakened by their own past failures, fragmentation, or active pressure from incumbents who use a mix of fair and unfair measures to keep opponents on the defensive. Having a weak opposition doesn’t always guarantee success (see Javier Milei near the bottom of this list despite the discredited Peronist opposition), but high approval is easier to sustain when there is no coherent alternative narrative.
Transition/Honeymoon; too early to tell
Laura Fernández
- The recently elected successor to Rodrigo Chaves takes office on May 8 after dominating the February election with nearly 48 percent in the first round. She inherits strong baseline approval for the outgoing government and a functioning, stable democracy. The question for her honeymoon period is the economy, and the scenario to fear is that of Kast in Chile or Paz in Bolivia, both of whom have seen their honeymoons cut short by economic challenges.
Below 50% but still strong
Lula
- Brazil’s president is under real pressure, with multiple polls showing disapproval in the high 40s to low 50s and a simulated runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro now within the margin of error. But I continue to think he’s the slight favorite for reelection in October. He still dominates the political system and controls the country’s agenda in a way that makes him among the most powerful presidents in the region.
Delcy Rodríguez
- This pains me, but it is hard to deny that Rodríguez’s political situation has solidified in recent months. She controls the legislature and judiciary, every bill she has requested has been rubber-stamped, she has removed members of Maduro’s inner circle and made the government substantively her own, and the economy has shown marginal improvement. Her approval rating is only in the 20s or 30s depending on how the question is asked and who is asking it. I see plenty of political challenges ahead. But she is still in power, still functioning, and has so far managed the balancing act of satisfying Washington’s demands while retaining a Chavista and military coalition to avoid an internal fracture. I place her here not because her approval is strong, but because her political grip on the system is.
José Antonio Kast
- Chile’s new president has had a disastrous honeymoon. Rising fuel prices led to a rapid approval collapse, dropping him down to the high 30s or low 40s. His corporate tax proposal is facing legislative roadblocks. So why is he still in this tier? Because he won decisively, his core coalition is unified behind him, and the Chilean right is organized in a way it hasn’t been in a generation. The loss of public approval is not the end of his presidency. He still has almost four years to go and the political skill to make something of it.
Yamandú Orsi
- Uruguay…. Ok, fine, I’ll give more than my usual one-word explanation for this country. Orsi governs a stable, institutionally strong country with a functioning economy and no acute crisis on his desk. Even with a net-negative approval rating, there is no emergency or crisis. The situation is one of routine political wear and tear. Uruguay’s political culture absorbs normal levels of governing disappointment and keeps chugging along.
Below 50% and on the fence
Santiago Peña
— An absolute darling of international markets. The economy is performing well, he controls the political situation, and Paraguay has maintained the institutional stability. There is a case for moving him into the tier above. The reasons I keep him here are: first, the Colorado Party machine generates a constant corruption drag that limits how high his personal approval can realistically go; and second, he is a politician who is part of that machine, not an independently powerful actor, which makes him more personally exposed to potential crisis than his positive international image suggests. What limited credible polling that is available points to an unhappy public, and protests last year suggest an urban youth population itching for change.
Gustavo Petro
— Petro’s approval is up compared to this time last year, driven by the minimum wage hike and a generally better governance in his final year than he demonstrated in his first three. His ally Iván Cepeda is doing well in presidential polls, but I believe he is the underdog in a two round election. The economy has underperformed expectations and is taking new hits due to the global environment, corruption scandals linger, and Petro’s agenda has largely failed despite a few small wins in recent months. Whether I should have placed him in a tier above or a tier below will appear obvious in hindsight depending on if his party wins or loses the presidential election.
Rodrigo Paz
- He should be in the honeymoon category, but economic pain, fuel shortages, and the losses in the subnational elections have the new president trending downward and at risk of a crisis.
Bernardo Arévalo
- It all depends on how the battle with the Attorney General’s office resolves. Arévalo came into office as a genuinely democratic reformer but hasn’t accomplished much. His approval is in the mid-30s, with much of the population disappointed in the lack of progress. Arévalo has spent most of his presidency in a grinding institutional war against Consuelo Porras and her allies, who weaponized the institutions against him before he took office. The fight over the selection of a new AG, going on right now, will determine whether the rest of Arévalo’s term is good, mediocre, or a massive crisis.
Nasry Asfura
- Honduras’s president entered office after a disputed election in which a significant portion of the population questioned his legitimacy. Given that start, with zero honeymoon bump, being in this tier is arguably a sign that he has managed a difficult opening well. He is not generating enthusiasm, but he is not generating crises either, which in the context of Honduran politics is its own form of success
José Raúl Mulino
- After an approval rating crash in early 2025 due to the public’s anger at pension reform, Panama’s president has seen a modest ratings recovery in recent months, but it is about the softest 40 percent approval that can be imagined. He continues to navigate the relationship with the US as best as he can, but Trump can turn his eyes back to the Canal any day, and Mulino would have limited leverage if he did. Mulino’s big task is now the reopening of the copper mine, which requires balancing public opinion, constitutional requirements, environmental and labor interest groups, and international investors who want the best deal possible.
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