March Madness - Wolverines new champs

[UNCBAdookJD]

Pretty cool to see that Sean May is respected enough by Dusty May to take his word on Cadeau. (Probably points to why Malone is retaining him too.)

Helps that Dusty coached Sean’s AAU team when Sean was in High School, but that’s how the coaching world works sometimes.

 

[Bigs23]

High and Evans are both entering the portal.

We're gonna struggle to have pickup games at this rate.

The portal awaits.

 

[UNCatTech]

Cadeu was not working here-he was not that effective, he was not happy
There were lots of reasons no doubt
We shall never know what would have happened if he stayed with HD another year?

I agree, but I still feel he was better option than ending up with Evans.

But, as mentioned, if he wasn't happy or felt limited, then he may not have improved here, especially if the staff was stubborn in their approach.

 

[SnoopRob]

The portal awaits.

The portal waits for no man.

(Now I want a thread of pithy portal-based sayings.)

 

[UNCatTech]

Seems like some internal issues. The real problem was they didn't land one of the other top portal PGs.

And we have to wonder why we couldn't land any of those players?

I'm sure these guys talk. I wonder if it was communicated that Coach Davis was overly controlling?

 

[SnoopRob]

But, as mentioned, if he wasn't happy or felt limited, then he may not have improved here, especially if the staff was stubborn in their approach.

I don't think Cadeau made some huge leap in either skill or performance from last year to this year.

I think the differences are typical progression from sophomore to junior year plus a system that plays much better to his strengths.

 

[UNCatTech]

And our players are who?
LOL

Yea, these worthless polls are even more worthless since we don't know who will be playing for us next year.

 

[SnoopRob]

Yea, these worthless polls are even more worthless since we don't know who will be playing for us next year.

That's what makes them fun.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I don't think Cadeau made some huge leap in either skill or performance from last year to this year.

I think the differences are typical progression from sophomore to junior year plus a system that plays much better to his strengths.

Cadeau certainly wasn’t put in the best position last season with a mediocre front court and without a wing who could put the ball in the basket.

 

[superrific]

Not many, but some of yall are some sour ass motherfuckers about Cadeau. The guy is CLEARLY a better player under Dusty May than he is under Hubert Davis. That is a product of a lot of things...better scheme, better roster, better relationship with his coach. But trying to justify somehow that he isnt better or shouldn't have been retained here is just idiotic and small.

Great player who should have been a career Heel but won it all (and I do mean ALL) somewhere else because our coach didn't get the most out of him. End of that story.

Ah, yes, the classic argument by capitalization. I have been stating facts about Cadeau all season. I have no particular interest other than accuracy.

 

[superrific]

Cadeau’s been good all year and ran that offense really well. He was the straw that stirred the drink, and it was a hell of a drink all year long. To be fair, I thought Tar Heel fans under-appreciated and underrated Cadeau while he was at UNC. But there was also one notable statistical improvement. He improved his 3pt% from .337 on 2.3 attempts per game last year to .379 on 4.3 attempts per game this year.

But he was at 42% earlier in the year. I said that was a fluke and he would regress. I was right. I thought he would regress to 36-37% so technically he fell within my window but it's probably more accurate to say the he didn't regress quite as much as I predicted.

Still, I don't think he meaningfully improved his shot. The reason I say that is that his FT% is basically the same and his 2 point shooting was lower. All told, his true shooting % is only slightly higher than it was at UNC

 

[Bigs23]

I don't think Cadeau made some huge leap in either skill or performance from last year to this year.

I think the differences are typical progression from sophomore to junior year plus a system that plays much better to his strengths.

And a lot better cast around him.

Same dude basically but put in the perfect environment to flourish.

 

[superrific]

You guys focus too much on the stats. Anyone watching him play this year would agree that the difference in confidence and overall impact on the game were stark.

This Michigan team was one of the great teams of the last 25 years. They had 8 players average between 7 and 15 points per game. Elliott averaging 10 and 6 with higher shooting efficiency on that team is much more impressive than what he did on ours.

Having a coach that believes in you, surrounds you with great talent, and allows you to play through mistakes can be the difference between a so-so college career and a Final Four MOP.

I focus on reality. I agree that focusing on the stats isn't always a reliable guide when comparing players. But when you're comparing the same player to himself a year later, stats are going to be relevant. Whatever Cadeau now does better, it would show up in a box score.

Here's a comparison in his stats at UNC and UM:

Scoring: slightly better for UM (21 vs 19.5 per 100 possessions)
Assists: slightly better for UNC (12.7 to 12.0 per 100 possessions)
Shooting: slightly better for UM. Effective FG% of 50.9 versus 49.8. three point % better for U of M, two point % worse.
FTs: slightly better for UM. Rate and % both slightly higher. Adjustment would be needed for late-game intentional fouling.
Steals: Better at UNC (2.3 versus 1.7 per 100 poss).
Rebounds: Slightly better at UNC. This isn't a super important stat and is likely noise.
Turnovers: Better at UM.

So basically the story here is:

Very small, incremental improvements in most offensive categories. Could be noise, could be the difference in one more year's experience.
More steals under Hubert. That makes sense. He gambled more.
More turnovers under Hubert. He gambled more.

Really, the only place where EC improved significantly between the two seasons is the TO rate, from 6.2 per 100 to 4.9 per 100. And that's more in the nature of solid development than dramatic improvement. And when you pair that with the steal differential, it's less than 1 possession per 100.

The main difference is that players on good teams tend to look better than players on less good teams. The same way that offenses look good when the shots are falling and not so good when they miss.

 

[Calheel]

I focus on reality. I agree that focusing on the stats isn't always a reliable guide when comparing players. But when you're comparing the same player to himself a year later, stats are going to be relevant. Whatever Cadeau now does better, it would show up in a box score.

Here's a comparison in his stats at UNC and UM:

Scoring: slightly better for UM (21 vs 19.5 per 100 possessions)
Assists: slightly better for UNC (12.7 to 12.0 per 100 possessions)
Shooting: slightly better for UM. Effective FG% of 50.9 versus 49.8. three point % better for U of M, two point % worse.
FTs: slightly better for UM. Rate and % both slightly higher. Adjustment would be needed for late-game intentional fouling.
Steals: Better at UNC (2.3 versus 1.7 per 100 poss).
Rebounds: Slightly better at UNC. This isn't a super important stat and is likely noise.
Turnovers: Better at UM.

So basically the story here is:

Very small, incremental improvements in most offensive categories. Could be noise, could be the difference in one more year's experience.
More steals under Hubert. That makes sense. He gambled more.
More turnovers under Hubert. He gambled more.

Really, the only place where EC improved significantly between the two seasons is the TO rate, from 6.2 per 100 to 4.9 per 100. And that's more in the nature of solid development than dramatic improvement. And when you pair that with the steal differential, it's less than 1 possession per 100.

The main difference is that players on good teams tend to look better than players on less good teams. The same way that offenses look good when the shots are falling and not so good when they miss.

He improved his shooting enough that UConn didn’t defend him like Florida State did.

 

[Centerpiece]

yeah, cadeau on our team this year (and thus no evans) makes us top 10 and a legit national contender.

i said it from the moment i heard the news, it was absolutely nuts that HD/tanner let him leave.

especially after enduring the ups and downs of his freshman and sophomore years to not get the upperclassman payoff was fucking infuriating.

This^^^

 

[superrific]

And a lot better cast around him.

Same dude basically but put in the perfect environment to flourish.

Yes, that's correct. I also suspect that the "they tried to tell me I was ass" comment is quite revealing. First, it tells us about his reaction to criticism. I very much doubt HD told him anything like that. I think EC heard it that way. In other words, he was uncoachable at UNC. Second, it tells us about his motivation. Sometimes guys need to be rejected in order to motivate themselves. Like Luka Doncic, for instance.

In hindsight it looks like a bad decision because we ended up with the players who would have made EC look good. But there was another factor, which people have alluded to from time to time: we couldn't have kept Trimble and EC. Those two guys are not compatible. Seth was a better player this year, in my opinion.

 

[SnoopRob]

Seth was a better player this year, in my opinion.

What's your reasoning for this opinion?

 

[superrific]

Yes, I'll never understand letting him walk. Had he had a solid big last year or probably ends up different.

I understand it. He had a poor attitude and appeared uncoachable. His comments yesterday to me confirm that diagnosis.

Maybe he had no respect for HD. If so, then leaving was the right move for both sides.

It's also true that his defensive shortcomings would have continued. U of M had such big time rim protection. UNC didn't, not even this year.

 

[superrific]

What's your reasoning for this opinion?

Well, I just threw it out there without too much thinking, so the first answer is "a hunch."

But if you look at the stats, on offense they were surprisingly similar. Seth's 3 point shooting was really bad, but his two point shooting was better. They ended up with very similar TS%. Seth scored more; EC assisted more. For me, the difference would be defense. I think Seth is a better defender overall.

From a stats perspective, Seth actually had a higher ORTG than EC but I don't know how much stock to put in that. That stat has so many adjustments that I'm not sure how informative it is in a very small sample size.

 

[Calheel]

Well, I just threw it out there without too much thinking, so the first answer is "a hunch."

But if you look at the stats, on offense they were surprisingly similar. Seth's 3 point shooting was really bad, but his two point shooting was better. They ended up with very similar TS%. Seth scored more; EC assisted more. For me, the difference would be defense. I think Seth is a better defender overall.

From a stats perspective, Seth actually had a higher ORTG than EC but I don't know how much stock to put in that. That stat has so many adjustments that I'm not sure how informative it is in a very small sample size.

But we needed a PG distributor, not a SG. We could have gotten another SG in the portal. One that could actually shoot.