NFL 2025-26 Season

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 381
  • Views: 6K
  • Sports 
1moretimeagain said:
Stafford also had 6 INTs against the common opponents. The 5 INTs and 2 losses vs Carolina/Atlanta could play a big role.
Click to expand...
The 5 INTs and 2 losses should play a big role, but not because the Pats also played those teams. The Rams controlled their own destiny for home field and they blew it against a mediocre team and a bad one. Full stop. Whether the Pats also played them has no bearing.

For instance: the Rams have the Cardinals up next. If they had beaten the Falcons but lost to the Cardinals, it would be the same effect. Rams losing a key game they should have won. That the Pats played the Falcons and not the Cardinals has nothing to do with it.

I never thought Stafford was going to keep his midseason numbers up, and of course he didn't.

These debates about MVP are mostly silly (especially in baseball, where people come up with all sorts of nonsense to justify looking at something other than the stats), but I guess people need something to talk about.
 
superrific said:
But this is the problem with Maye's candidacy: the Patriots have had the easiest schedule in the league by a fair margin. He did dominate the Jets. The Jets.

New England's strength of schedule is a pathetic .383. The Rams are .555. I don't believe Stafford should get it either (though i don't follow enough to know who might be other realistic candidates), but .555 and .383 is a big difference. Also Strength of Victory -- New England is at .365, meaning they have basically only beaten bad teams.

But Stafford did choke in an important game, which should exclude him. This is a problem with MVP voting. Stafford has been in the league a long time. He hasn't become a new player. He just had a hot streak without throwing interceptions -- but that's not who he is. He's an average interception QB, as we're seeing.
Click to expand...
Correct. The biggest hit against the Maye candidacy is easy schedule. But the offset to that argument is he had a far worse supporting cast around him. Give him Puka Nakua and send Diggs to the Rams. Those numbers would not be close (not to mention the rest of the Rams receivers are a notch above Boutte, Hollins, Henry, et al).
 
Calheel said:
Correct. The biggest hit against the Maye candidacy is easy schedule. But the offset to that argument is he had a far worse supporting cast around him. Give him Puka Nakua and send Diggs to the Rams. Those numbers would not be close (not to mention the rest of the Rams receivers are a notch above Boutte, Hollins, Henry, et al).
Click to expand...
The other offset to criticism based on the Patriots schedule is to look at the 6 common opponent games.
 
Calheel said:
Correct. The biggest hit against the Maye candidacy is easy schedule. But the offset to that argument is he had a far worse supporting cast around him. Give him Puka Nakua and send Diggs to the Rams. Those numbers would not be close (not to mention the rest of the Rams receivers are a notch above Boutte, Hollins, Henry, et al).
Click to expand...
The Rams got Kupp in the 4th round. He got old, so they replaced him with Puka, who they got in the 5th. Pretty savvy drafting, lol.

I have no idea how to assess counterfactuals like that. I have no real opinion on the MVP race because I don't care. My intuition is that either Stafford or Maye would be pretty bad compared to previous winners, but some years are like that, I guess. And it's just an intuition.
 
1moretimeagain said:
The other offset to criticism based on the Patriots schedule is to look at the 6 common opponent games.
Click to expand...
Wrong. Because the counter to that is, look at how awesome Stafford played against the teams that matter.

If the Falcons had missed the FG and the Rams won in OT, would that have made Stafford any more valuable? This type of logic is always foolish.
 
superrific said:
Wrong. Because the counter to that is, look at how awesome Stafford played against the teams that matter.

If the Falcons had missed the FG and the Rams won in OT, would that have made Stafford any more valuable? This type of logic is always foolish.
Click to expand...
Very favorable betting odds available for you right now. Prior to last night’s games a winning bet on Stafford would’ve paid out a profit of around 40%, but today’s odds provide you an opportunity to quadruple your money.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Very favorable betting odds available for you right now. Prior to last night’s games a winning bet on Stafford would’ve paid out a profit of around 40%, but today’s odds provide you an opportunity to quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What makes you think I think Stafford should get it? As a Rams fan, I'm pissed at the loss last night. That should not have happened. And I do not think Stafford is an MVP level QB. He was way better than Goff was as a Ram, and he did what he was obtained to do -- win a SB. But I don't think he's that great.
 
superrific said:
The Rams got Kupp in the 4th round. He got old, so they replaced him with Puka, who they got in the 5th. Pretty savvy drafting, lol.

I have no idea how to assess counterfactuals like that. I have no real opinion on the MVP race because I don't care. My intuition is that either Stafford or Maye would be pretty bad compared to previous winners, but some years are like that, I guess. And it's just an intuition.
Click to expand...
Your schedule argument is kind of a counterfactual too. You are implying that Maye's numbers would be worse in the counterfactual in which he played Stafford's schedule. I am suggesting that Stafford's numbers would be worse in the counterfactual in which he had Maye's receivers.

Unless you are suggesting that there is a legitimate debate as to whether Maye has a bunch of tomatoes he is throwing to.
 
1moretimeagain said:
The other offset to criticism based on the Patriots schedule is to look at the 6 common opponent games.
Click to expand...
I'm with Super on that. That is just a quirk of a small sample size. I mean, I know people will use that argument to support a pre-established conclusion. But I don't think it is very compelling that Maye did slightly better against 6 specific bad teams than Stafford did. Different players in different games with different motivations at different times of year.
 
Calheel said:
Your schedule argument is kind of a counterfactual too. You are implying that Maye's numbers would be worse in the counterfactual in which he played Stafford's schedule. I am suggesting that Stafford's numbers would be better in the counterfactual in which he had Stafford's receivers.

Unless you are suggesting that there is a legitimate debate as to whether Maye has a bunch of tomatoes he is throwing to.
Click to expand...
I don't follow the NFL nearly enough to know about the tomatoes.

I don't think the schedule argument is really a counter factual. I see what you mean, and you're not entirely wrong, but I look at it more as a matter of accomplishment.

For instance: I don't know how well the 1993 national champ Heels would measure up against other champions. It seems to me that the team had a few holes. However, they faced chalk through the tournament and beat everyone. That's more of an accomplishment, I think, than beating a 10 seed and a 7 seed in the Final Four to win it all. Or a 15 seed in the Elite 8, to be fair.

Same with the 05 team. Was it better than the 09 team? Doubtful. But the 05 team didn't get to dodge anyone. They beat the clear #2 in the country in the Finals. More of an accomplishment. You can't take that away.
 
superrific said:
I don't follow the NFL nearly enough to know about the tomatoes.

I don't think the schedule argument is really a counter factual. I see what you mean, and you're not entirely wrong, but I look at it more as a matter of accomplishment.

For instance: I don't know how well the 1993 national champ Heels would measure up against other champions. It seems to me that the team had a few holes. However, they faced chalk through the tournament and beat everyone. That's more of an accomplishment, I think, than beating a 10 seed and a 7 seed in the Final Four to win it all. Or a 15 seed in the Elite 8, to be fair.

Same with the 05 team. Was it better than the 09 team? Doubtful. But the 05 team didn't get to dodge anyone. They beat the clear #2 in the country in the Finals. More of an accomplishment. You can't take that away.
Click to expand...
Putting up the numbers Maye has this year with the very low talent receivers around him (and a young but improving offensive line) is every bit the accomplishment of beating chalk in the NCAAT. If he had a true No. 1 wide receiver and maybe a Brock Bowers type tight end, he would be rewriting the record books.
 
Calheel said:
I'm with Super on that. That is just a quirk of a small sample size. I mean, I know people will use that argument to support a pre-established conclusion. But I don't think it is very compelling that Maye did slightly better against 6 specific bad teams than Stafford did. Different players in different games with different motivations at different times of year.
Click to expand...
It was a lot better, but I agree looking specifically at those games account for just 35% of their games.

However, look at how dramatically the betting odds swung last night based on a single Stafford game, this after Maye/Stafford had already played 31 games combined. I’m surprised how much it moved, but that is what happened.
 
1moretimeagain said:
However, look at how dramatically the betting odds swung last night based on a single Stafford game, this after Maye/Stafford had already played 31 games combined. I’m surprised how much it moved, but that is what happened.
Click to expand...
I'm not. It's like opening Schrodinger's Box. Stafford was so bad he probably killed his cat.
 
Using passing yards allowed as the metric, Stafford has faced the: #4, 5, 9, 11, 12 (2x), 14, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25 (2x), 26, 30, 31 pass defenses (avg 18.2).

Maye has faced the: #1 (2x), 2, 5, 11, 14, 15, 16 (2x), 18, 20, 23, 26, 27, 29, 30 pass defenses (avg 14.6).

So Maye has put up better numbers against tougher pass defenses.
 
He's Not Here said:
Using passing yards allowed as the metric, Stafford has faced the: #4, 5, 9, 11, 12 (2x), 14, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25 (2x), 26, 30, 31 pass defenses (avg 18.2).

Maye has faced the: #1 (2x), 2, 5, 11, 14, 15, 16 (2x), 18, 20, 23, 26, 27, 29, 30 pass defenses (avg 14.6).

So Maye has put up better numbers against tougher pass defenses.
Click to expand...
Passing yards allowed is not a good metric. You’d need to be more granular with something like epa per pass play

In that scenario

Stafford faced
1, 2, 4, 7, 7, 12, 13, 14, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 24, 27, 28.
average - 13.875

Maye faced
5, 6, 6, 12, 13, 16, 8, 20, 21, 23, 25, 26, 28, 29, 31, 31
Average- 19.375

I still think Mayes the mvp but Stafford faced tougher defenses
 
CharmCityTiger said:
That game also had huge consequences for the panthers. Even if they lose to Tampa on Saturday they can now win the division if the falcons beat the saints next week.
Click to expand...
I told my son that if the Panthers lose to TB and then have their hopes dashed by ATL losing to NO, it will be like the Panthers lost to the woeful Aints three times this season.
 
ChatGPT projects the Panthers to win the Super Bowl in 2045, the London Monarchs to win in 2068 and the Cowboys to be the only NFL team not to win one in the next 50 years.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top