Political crackdown and protest in Georgia; Election annulled in Romanian election (all Russia related)
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Georgia protesters clash with police after government suspends talks on joining EU
Georgia protesters clash with police after government suspends talks on joining EU | CNN
Police clashed with protesters in the Georgian capital Tbilisi early on Friday, after the country’s ruling party said the government would suspend talks on European Union accession and refuse budgetary grants until 2028.
“Police clashed with protesters in the Georgian capital Tbilisi early on Friday, after the country’s ruling party said the government would suspend talks on European Union accession and refuse budgetary grants until 2028.
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Georgia’s relations with the EU have deteriorated sharply in recent months as Brussels has alleged that the government had resorted to authoritarian measures and adopted pro-Russian stands.
Thousands of pro-EU protesters had blocked streets in the capital before the altercations began. The country’s figurehead president accused the government of declaring “war” on its own people and confronted riot police, asking whether they served Georgia or Russia.
The Georgian Dream governing bloc accused the EU of “a cascade of insults,” saying in a statement it was using the prospect of accession talks to “blackmail” the country, and to “organize a revolution in the country.” …”
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Related:
www.politico.eu
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While a large-scale attack on a NATO country is not expected, Moscow could, for example, stage a limited intervention under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, said Bruno Kahl, chief of the BND intelligence service. The idea would be to test NATO's resolve to invoke Article 5 of the treaty, which obliges alliance members to provide assistance in case of an attack on another NATO country.
“There are currently no indications of Russia's concrete intentions for war" against NATO, Kahl said at an event organized by German foreign policy think tank DGAP, according to several German media reports. …”
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Wonder why Russia would want to test Article 5 Commitments in the next few years? I mean, there are a lot of potential and intertwining reasons, but from a U.S.-centric perspective one is obvious.
German spy chief: Russia could test NATO loyalty to ‘mutual defense’ clause
Russia’s military will be in a position to launch an attack against NATO by the end of the decade, Germany’s foreign intelligence chief said.
German spy chief: Russia could test NATO loyalty to ‘mutual defense’ clause
Russia’s military will be in a position to launch an attack against NATO by the end of the decade, Germany’s foreign intelligence chief said.
www.politico.eu
“…
While a large-scale attack on a NATO country is not expected, Moscow could, for example, stage a limited intervention under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, said Bruno Kahl, chief of the BND intelligence service. The idea would be to test NATO's resolve to invoke Article 5 of the treaty, which obliges alliance members to provide assistance in case of an attack on another NATO country.
“There are currently no indications of Russia's concrete intentions for war" against NATO, Kahl said at an event organized by German foreign policy think tank DGAP, according to several German media reports. …”
——
Wonder why Russia would want to test Article 5 Commitments in the next few years? I mean, there are a lot of potential and intertwining reasons, but from a U.S.-centric perspective one is obvious.
One of the flaws in a fixed election cycle is the disjunction in foreign policy when administration changes, especially with different parties assuming power. It's easy to plan challenges to the system during the changeover when you have the sort of cooperation that we've seen lately.
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lawtig02
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One of the many painful lessons already learned from this election is that most people around the world, including both our allies and enemies, have known for a couple of years that Trump would likely win. Nothing happening anywhere right now, or for the last year plus for that matter, is Trump agnostic. Bibi has been planning for Trump. Xi and Kim have been planning for Trump. And Putin went all in on Trump’s return, and it’s going to pay off for him in a major way. From a foreign policy perspective, we now have far more in common with Russia, Iran and Hungary than we do with our western allies.
I expect it was more like wargaming military strategy and tactics than sure that he would win. Both legal issues and health prevented any real assurance.
lawtig02
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I don’t know. In hindsight, I remember reading way back in early 2023, when it became clear the Pubs would not jettison Trump, that our closest European allies were assuming he’d return. I didn’t believe it then, but it seems highly likely now.
Trumps election triggered this. Russia now has a free hand to do whatever it likes with OrangTurd in office
superrific
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Yes, they were planning for it. They would be stupid not to.
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I'm not confident it's a matter of "knowing" he'll win as much as recognizing that, should he win, massive advancements in self interest become supremely more plausible. Yes, much of the build-up and aggression by the likes of Bibi and Putin relied on ttump for the endgames, but those processes required build-up that would/will inevitably span multiple POTUS admins.
I think they made rational wagers, and in the case of Bibi and Putin you've got a couple of authoritarians in their 70s who likely feel a sense of their personal endgames.
lawtig02
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It’s mostly semantics I guess because the result is the same, but I have a feeling looking back, we’ll see that Dems in the US were about the only people in the world who thought the Dem candidate had a chance. I know I should have paid way more attention to the rightward shifts and anti-incumbency sentiment almost everywhere else in the world. It just makes sense to me that our European allies, Trudeau, etc. would be much more alert to that than I was.
I do agree with you about Bibi and Putin. I think they believed Trump would win. But even if he didn’t, they only have so much longer to empty their respective chambers. Might as well take their best shot now. Trump will just make it much easier for them to do it.