Predict Your 2024 Election Surprises

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lawtig02

lawtig02

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Just to lighten things up a bit in these last 20 days, what really surprising results are you willing to go out on a limb and predict? Kamala winning 300 electoral votes or Trump winning a Blue Wall state doesn't count. I'm talking big time surprises. No shame if you're wrong, but everlasting credit if you happen to be right. I'll start with three, the first two of which I've already posted here previously.

1. Kamala wins Iowa.
2. Kamala wins North Carolina by 4+ points.
3. Allred knocks out Cruz in Texas.
 
Jon Tester manages to hold his seat but Dems are still thwarted by Eric Hovde upsetting Tammy Baldwin in the WI Senate race.

Women voters are even more disproportionately represented in the electorate in 2024 than usual but split their tickets pro-abortion rights/Trump in AZ.
 
St. Donald of Mar-a-Lago loses the election in a landslide and claims the landslide is proof, "proof" he will say, that the election was fraudulent, because the pre-election polls were so close, despite Harris voters like me being essentially unreachable/ignored by current polling techniques.
 
We need to have a limit on the # of guesses. We're predicting long shots. If you get an infinite number of guesses, you'll eventually call something to make you look prescient.
 
Zoo_View said:
Democrats win enough legislative seats in North Carolina to break the GOP’s supermajority.
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Would this be a surprise? Dems had enough seats until that one woman switched parties. My understanding is that she is very likely going to lose because her district now hates her. Even apart from that, it only takes a pickup of a couple of seats to make that happen.
 
quakerdevil said:
1. Dems win outright control of Congress.

2. Harris only wins 270-268
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I don't think either of those would be surprises. 270-268 is one of the more likely election outcomes (not that any one of them is a favorite). I think Dems are favorites to take the House, aren't they? Is the surprise that both would happen at the same time? I suppose that's a little bit surprising but I don't think the Dems chances in the House are all that dependent on which presidential candidate happens to eke out a win in GA or NC
 
superrific said:
I don't think either of those would be surprises. 270-268 is one of the more likely election outcomes (not that any one of them is a favorite). I think Dems are favorites to take the House, aren't they? Is the surprise that both would happen at the same time? I suppose that's a little bit surprising but I don't think the Dems chances in the House are all that dependent on which presidential candidate happens to eke out a win in GA or NC
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My surprise is both together, not one or the other
 
quakerdevil said:
My surprise is both together, not one or the other
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Got it. I'm still not sure that even both together is a big surprise but I suppose the probability that Dems take the House given Kamala wins 270-268 is less than 50%, I would think.

Hmm. Actually 538 has Republicans as slight favorites to keep the House. About 54%. So maybe the probability of Dems taking it with a narrow Kamala win is a bit less than I thought. Still, I don't think they have run combined House/president analyses, so it's hard to know what the range of outcomes is.
 
superrific said:
Would this be a surprise? Dems had enough seats until that one woman switched parties. My understanding is that she is very likely going to lose because her district now hates her. Even apart from that, it only takes a pickup of a couple of seats to make that happen.
Click to expand...
North Carolina redistricted the State House and State Senate (and the US House) in 2023 after Tricia Cotham switched parties on April 5, 2023. That switch gave the GOP a supermajority in the House (it already had one in the Senate).

The 2023 redistricting gives Tricia Cotham a more Republican-leaning district than the one she won as a Democrat in 2022. It gives most Republicans more GOP-leaning districts than they ran in in 2022.
 
Zoo_View said:
North Carolina redistricted the State House and State Senate (and the US House) in 2023 after Tricia Cotham switched parties on April 5, 2023. That switch gave the GOP a supermajority in the House (it already had one in the Senate).

The 2023 redistricting gives Tricia Cotham a more Republican-leaning district than the one she won as a Democrat in 2022. It gives most Republicans more GOP-leaning districts than they ran in in 2022.
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I see. I didn't know that.
 
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