Predict Your 2024 Election Surprises

  • Thread starter Thread starter lawtig02
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aGDevil2k said:
The crap thing about gerrymandering is that it bakes it in for good. Like with the extreme levels, only the courts could ever stop it and make things fair again. The GOP took over at the right time of the rise of computing and the dems are just completely f'd
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Well, not entirely forever. Gerrymanders do sometimes fail -- i.e. a party that tries to cut it too close ends up getting washed away in a wave elections. But I'm not aware of a failed gerrymander since 2010. Maybe the data is too good, although it will be interesting to see what happens in 2028 or 2030.

For the most part, of course, you're correct. And it might even be a bit worse than you know. When the Supreme Court declined to stop gerrymandering in the Rucho case, it did so in an odd way. It said that political gerrymandering is "non-justiciable," which is to say that courts can't ever do anything about it because it's fundamentally a political question.

Of course, that's 100% the opposite of reality. As you say, gerrymandering can't ordinarily be defeated at the ballot box for obvious reasons -- reasons Roberts dismissed as "gobbledygook." He could have written that there's no right to fair participation, or that the gerrymandering wasn't bad enough to be actionable, or any other normal holding. But they went with non-justiciable, which is the most absurd result.
 
heelinhell said:
1 )Cruz and Rick Scott lose their seats allowing the Dems to hold the Senate

2) Kamala wins Florida cinching the election
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www.rawstory.com

'Seems like someone is worried': Trump's latest schedule change has analysts puzzled

Atlanta Journal-Constitution writer Greg Bluestein reported Friday that Donald Trump's campaign had canceled his keynote address to the National Rifle Association in Georgia for a roundtable with Latino voters in Florida. Critics filled his mentions with comments guessing that it was Trump's...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
 
lawtig02 said:
Just to lighten things up a bit in these last 20 days, what really surprising results are you willing to go out on a limb and predict? Kamala winning 300 electoral votes or Trump winning a Blue Wall state doesn't count. I'm talking big time surprises. No shame if you're wrong, but everlasting credit if you happen to be right. I'll start with three, the first two of which I've already posted here previously.

1. Kamala wins Iowa.
2. Kamala wins North Carolina by 4+ points.
3. Allred knocks out Cruz in Texas.
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Channel 9 Attention GIF by The Block
 
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