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—> https://www.wsj.com/politics/electi...6?st=uFytET&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink“…
Nonpartisan analysts say the California ruling will likely limit GOP gains from the redistricting push to three or four seats, or possibly none at all. Republicans currently hold a majority in the House of 218-214.
Last weekend in Texas, a Democrat won a state Senate seat by 14 points in a district that Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024, suggesting that Democrats angry at Trump are eager to vote.
Texas lawmakers made five House districts more friendly to Republicans, but people in both parties consider two of them to be competitive due in part to Democratic enthusiasm, even though Trump in 2024 won both districts by about 10 points.
“I think the benefits Republicans ultimately derive from this redistricting arms race are negligible,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. “You can’t gerrymander your way out of a wave election, and Democrats don’t even need a wave” to take the House majority, he added.…”
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A similar analysis may have prompted Trump’s recently much more aggressive rhetoric about the GOP taking over elections in blue cities.