Republican Budget Deal

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There is going to be a lot of FAFO with the medicaid cut. I think people would be surprised how many poor people in rural areas voted for Trump.
Didn't hurt with Medicare voters and lots of them don't want the government involved in health care. They don't care so long as we don't place a trans on every nuclear sub out of principle. Don't know how to say it, but you aren't getting through to these people.
 
There are many public hospitals, both inner city and rural, that operate on razor thin margins. Medicaid is vital to keeping them open.
In the area I grew up in, most of them had already closed so the locals won't feel that. The crazy thing is that this is due to policy decisions made by Republicans but few understand that. (Most likely they just attribute it to rural decay.)
 
I'm not a tax expert to say the least, but didn't the first Trump tax cuts increase the standard deduction to the point that most Americans don't itemize anyway? That would seem to make the mortgage deduction moot for most people.
Umm, have you looked at interest rates? 7% interest on a $400,000 note is $28,000. That doesn't include the $4k or so that person is paying in property taxes. Those two together smash the hell out of the standard deduction even for married couples and before they take any other deductions.

It would be an even larger gut punch for younger unmarried filers.
 
Umm, have you looked at interest rates? 7% interest on a $400,000 note is $28,000. That doesn't include the $4k or so that person is paying in property taxes. Those two together smash the hell out of the standard deduction even for married couples and before they take any other deductions.

It would be an even larger gut punch for younger unmarried filers.
It's a good point. With rates as high as they are (and increasing - thanks Trump!) it does bring the mortgage deduction more into play.
 
Umm, have you looked at interest rates? 7% interest on a $400,000 note is $28,000. That doesn't include the $4k or so that person is paying in property taxes. Those two together smash the hell out of the standard deduction even for married couples and before they take any other deductions.

It would be an even larger gut punch for younger unmarried filers.
The NYT article said that entirely eliminating the mortgage tax deduction would save over one trillion dollars over the next 10 years, so it sounds like there is at least one hundred billion deducted each year.
 
For the record, I think a reasonably good policy argument can be made to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. I'm not sold on it, but it's not a crazy idea. But let there be no doubt -- eliminating that deduction is a shiv to the back of middle class America, so I'd like to send this song out to all those "real Americans" who supported Trump because you didn't like your economic situation under Biden.

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The NYT article said that entirely eliminating the mortgage tax deduction would save over one trillion dollars over the next 10 years, so it sounds like there is at least one hundred billion deducted each year.
I’d call it a tax hike on upper middle class. There is a sweet spot where the mortgage has to be high enough to justify itemizing over the higher standard deduction, but not so high that you bump into the $750k mortgage cap.

Most of the people who fall into that category would be fairly well off small business owners and professionals.
 
I’d call it a tax hike on upper middle class. There is a sweet spot where the mortgage has to be high enough to justify itemizing over the higher standard deduction, but not so high that you bump into the $750k mortgage cap.

Most of the people who fall into that category would be fairly well off small business owners and professionals.
It's ALWAYS a tax hike on the upper middle class. So was the SALT deduction limit.
 
I’d call it a tax hike on upper middle class. There is a sweet spot where the mortgage has to be high enough to justify itemizing over the higher standard deduction, but not so high that you bump into the $750k mortgage cap.

Most of the people who fall into that category would be fairly well off small business owners and professionals.
I think this doesn't align with the reality of current rates. A $400k note is BARELY middle class now and that note puts most borrowers easily over the standard deduction amounts.

Hell, a $325k FHA note pretty much does it now for a married couple with the mortgage insurance costs plus interest.
 
I think this doesn't align with the reality of current rates. A $400k note is BARELY middle class now and that note puts most borrowers easily over the standard deduction amounts.

Hell, a $325k FHA note pretty much does it now for a married couple with the mortgage insurance costs plus interest.
But how many people have mortgages at today’s rates? You probably have more of the stats than I do, but I’d bet that 95% of all current mortgages were written in 2021 or earlier.
 
There is no way the mortgage deduction gets eliminated and I'm reasonably sure the SALT cap will be raised considering how close the House is and how many GOP members are from NJ and NY. If I had to guess I would say Medicaid/Medicare will make up the majority of the cuts.
 
I’d call it a tax hike on upper middle class. There is a sweet spot where the mortgage has to be high enough to justify itemizing over the higher standard deduction, but not so high that you bump into the $750k mortgage cap.

Most of the people who fall into that category would be fairly well off small business owners and professionals.
And blue-staters.
 
Didn't hurt with Medicare voters and lots of them don't want the government involved in health care. They don't care so long as we don't place a trans on every nuclear sub out of principle. Don't know how to say it, but you aren't getting through to these people.
I don't think there's any doubt that Dems aren't getting through to rural poor (as they haven't for decades) but if you think there are people on Medicare or Medicaid who won't care about losing it and having to pay out of pocket for medical insurance or go without, I think you're quite mistaken. (Personally I'm sure the GOP is much more likely to cut from Medicaid than Medicare anyway.)
 
I’ll just stop filing taxes. They’re probably going to gut the IRS at some point too.
Luckily I received a large deposit from a 2021 refile in December. If they took any longer, it probably would have never happened.
 
But how many people have mortgages at today’s rates? You probably have more of the stats than I do, but I’d bet that 95% of all current mortgages were written in 2021 or earlier.

Currently, 15% of outstanding notes have a rate above 6% interest. That is down from 93% in 2022 and 90% in early 2023.

What you just made is a case for effectively paralyzing the housing market by magnifying the effect of today's Rates even Moreso. If the mortgage deduction was repealed, those who already have a lower rate would feel even more compelled than they already do to stay rooted where they are. Newer buyers would be even further from affording a house, etc.
 
Currently, 15% of outstanding notes have a rate above 6% interest. That is down from 93% in 2022 and 90% in early 2023.

What you just made is a case for effectively paralyzing the housing market by magnifying the effect of today's Rates even Moreso. If the mortgage deduction was repealed, those who already have a lower rate would feel even more compelled than they already do to stay rooted where they are. Newer buyers would be even further from affording a house, etc.
Agreed. Repealing the mortgage intertest deduction would double the penalty of selling. It would seize up a real estate market that is already broken.

Of course, Prop 13 has already done that in California. No one wants to sell in California because it means effectively doubling your property taxes (unless you move out of state). So only dead people, divorcees and retirees sell, which keeps the prices of houses artificially high and screws over the young people wanting to buy a house. Also makes it a very tough market for real estate agents.
 
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