Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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BlueSmoke said:
It strikes me that both countries have almost the same war plan. Putin plans to fight on until his economy or military can't. Ukraine plans to fight on until Russia takes every last bit of Ukraine.
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My guess is Ukraine figures that the rest of the democratic world will assist them against the onslaught of Russian aggression.

Up until Republican obeisance to Putin and to Trump’s brand of “isolationism”, Ukrainians would have been pretty well grounded in that assumption.
 
BlueSmoke said:
It strikes me that both countries have almost the same war plan. Putin plans to fight on until his economy or military can't. Ukraine plans to fight on until Russia takes every last bit of Ukraine.
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I don't think Putin wants to annex Ukraine Soviet Union style. He wants to annex certain pieces of Ukraine that have an awful lot of ethnic Russians in them and then he would like to make Ukraine a puppet state like Belarus to buffer against the West.

I think what Zelinsky is hoping for is that he can draw the war out long enough for a more favorable political environment in the US and Western Europe that provides more material support to push back against Russia and recapture the land it's lost plus a little more. But that's a long time away. I think what he would love is NATO troops in Ukraine but it's not going to happen.

I think what Russia will accept and what will eventually happen is that Russia annexes certain pieces of Ukraine that have an awful lot of ethnic Russians but maybe not quite as many pieces as they would like and that Ukraine stays somewhat neutral between the west and Russia. That second part is really difficult to guarantee in a democracy as most of the people left in Ukraine would almost certainly prefer a closer relationship with the west. Even if a treaty is signed to remain neutral, there will be a lot of political pressure to start aligning with the west.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I don't think Putin wants to annex Ukraine Soviet Union style. He wants to annex certain pieces of Ukraine that have an awful lot of ethnic Russians in them and then he would like to make Ukraine a puppet state like Belarus to buffer against the West.

I think what Zelinsky is hoping for is that he can draw the war out long enough for a more favorable political environment in the US and Western Europe that provides more material support to push back against Russia and recapture the land it's lost plus a little more. But that's a long time away. I think what he would love is NATO troops in Ukraine but it's not going to happen.

I think what Russia will accept and what will eventually happen is that Russia annexes certain pieces of Ukraine that have an awful lot of ethnic Russians but maybe not quite as many pieces as they would like and that Ukraine stays somewhat neutral between the west and Russia. That second part is really difficult to guarantee in a democracy as most of the people left in Ukraine would almost certainly prefer a closer relationship with the west. Even if a treaty is signed to remain neutral, there will be a lot of political pressure to start aligning with the west.
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Life means so little to Putin and Russia, so I doubt the inclusion of ethnic Russians has anything to do with it. Its just a propaganda excuse that the Russian state has used for hundreds of years.

Land, well Russia already has plenty of that which expands over 11 time zones. Now I do buy that Putin would like an Ukrainian puppet state and he's willing to fight on as long as his military or economy allows it to get an outcome like that.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Life means so little to Putin and Russia, so I doubt the inclusion of ethnic Russians has anything to do with it. Its just a propaganda excuse that the Russian state has used for hundreds of years.

Land, well Russia already has plenty of that which expands over 11 time zones. Now I do buy that Putin would like an Ukrainian puppet state and he's willing to fight on as long as his military or economy allows it to get an outcome like that.
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The only reason I say that is that is exactly what he did in Georgia. Russia was probably powerful enough to annex the whole country but they stopped at the regions with a lot of ethnic russians. Which is probably for the best. Why deal with a bunch of people that are going to hate you for the next 20 years until you get weak enough that they successfully rebel.
 
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