Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

[Molotov Mocktail]

Russia’s had years of practice at getting around sanctions. How effective are they really at this point?

The NYT article noted this will require secondary sanctions against countries still buying Russian oil to be effective.

Also, it’s beyond ridiculous that this guys mind is so mush that significant shifts of US stances and policies hinge on who spoke to him last. People have got to be worried that he’s deteriorating during a power grab.

 

[nycfan]

 

[altmin]

Russia likely burning Ukraine down, and targeting the firefighters who respond.

Wildfires have consumed vast chunks of Ukraine. Is Russia deliberately fuelling the flames?

In 2024, nearly a million hectares of Ukraine’s land burned. Heat, mines and shelling contributed, but footage of drones targeting firefighters has raised the question of war crimes

www.theguardian.com

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

—> https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/as...a?st=u5sbNg&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[nycfan]

—> https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/as...a?st=u5sbNg&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… Kyiv’s theory of victory now increasingly rests on the growing power of Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russia’s oil-and-gas infrastructure, the lifeblood of Putin’s war machine. Russia is already experiencing fuel shortages after dozens of its refineries were blown up.

… A former senior member of Zelensky’s administration said the war will likely continue for many years because both sides have the ability to keep fighting. It will end, he added, either with the collapse of the Russian imperial project or the disappearance of an independent Ukraine.

By January next year, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine will have lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany. It is an important psychological marker considering that Putin’s propaganda has sold the war to the Russian public as a replay of that conflict. He routinely uses the term “denazification” to describe his aim of ousting Zelensky’s government.

Instead of closing in on the enemy capital, however, Russian troops have been bogged down for three years in the same terrain. Since November 2022, Russia has been able to advance at only a painfully slow crawl, conquering an additional 1% of Ukraine at the cost of over a million dead and maimed Russian soldiers, by Western calculations.…”

 

[nycfan]

Trump says he will not meet with Putin until he thinks there is a deal on Ukraine​

Trump says he will not meet with Putin until he thinks there is a deal on Ukraine

'I'm not going to be wasting my time.'

www.reuters.com

"You have to know that we're going to make a deal, I'm not going to be wasting my time," Trump told reporters in Doha.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Trump says he will not meet with Putin until he thinks there is a deal on Ukraine​

Trump says he will not meet with Putin until he thinks there is a deal on Ukraine

'I'm not going to be wasting my time.'

www.reuters.com

"You have to know that we're going to make a deal, I'm not going to be wasting my time," Trump told reporters in Doha.

Flagpoles, ballrooms, UFC fights, military parades, watching FOX News 16 hours a day? "I'm not going to be wasting my time?"

 

[korgguy1971]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Batt Boy]

very interesting work by Big Serge. He's been spot on for a long time, but I wonder about the change in Russia's strategy in the Donbas. Not so sure that Russia will necessarily push up to the "banana" as he calls it from the south-west. We haven't really seen a Russian attempt to take the hills west of Konstantinovka. I think Russia will attempt to accomplish the same purpose by taking Dobropol'ye, and then Belozerskoe and Novodonetskoe, pushing north through the western part of Donetsk region. I think the big picture analysis is correct.

Living Dangerously

Russo-Ukrainian War: Autumn 2025

bigserge.substack.com

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty, Kyiv says​

Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty, Kyiv says

The Ukraine foreign minister's comments are the first confirmation that Russia has used the ground-launched 9M729 missile in combat - in Ukraine or elsewhere.

www.reuters.com

“… Russia has fired the missile at Ukraine 23 times since August, a second senior Ukrainian official told Reuters. Ukraine also recorded two launches of the 9M729 by Russia in 2022, the source said.

… The 9M729 led the United States to quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Washington said the missile was in breach of the treaty and could fly far beyond its limit of 500 km (310 miles) although Russia denied this.

The missile, which can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead, has a range of 2,500 km, according to the Missile Threat website produced at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

A military source said a 9M729 fired by Russia on October 5 flew over 1,200 km to its impact in Ukraine.

"Russia's use of the INF-banned 9M729 against Ukraine in the past months demonstrates (President Vladimir) Putin's disrespect to the United States and President Trump's diplomatic efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine," Sybiha said in written remarks.…”