Russia - US | Ukraine “peace negotiations”

[gtyellowjacket]

I don’t follow. The 2015 Polish military plus a rock solid US security guarantee was far more powerful than the 2025 Polish military with no guarantee the US would come to their aid if they were attacked.

That is not necessarily what Russia fears though. They would like land in Poland and to recreate the iron curtain with a bunch of puppet states. They fear European countries, especially Germany, marching through Red square. That second scenario is more likely to happen with a stronger Europe.

Ideally, Putin would want the US to pull back from NATO commitments and European countries to keep defense spending light. But can you imagine a scenario where Putin calls Trump on the red phone and says "I want you to pull the US back from Europe, but I also want you to pressure all the countries that have invaded Russia in the past to increase their defense spending or I am going to release the pee-tapes." That's why the Putin agent theory just just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[BlooVooDoo]

That is not necessarily what Russia fears though. They would like land in Poland and to recreate the iron curtain with a bunch of puppet states. They fear European countries, especially Germany, marching through Red square. That second scenario is more likely to happen with a stronger Europe.

This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.

 

[Huh?]

The tragedy is that, until Trump, the "special military operation" had already turned into a strategic debacle for Putin.

He got additional NATO encirclement with Sweden and Finland. His military was exposed as shambolic. He may be winning marginally in Ukraine at the moment, but at a huge domestic cost. He's already had one aborted coup, and he has to ride out a crashing economy over the next few years.

The only thing that could make this a winner for him is if the Atlantic Alliance cratered. And, thanks to our President, it has.

 

[nycfan]

 

[heelinhell]

Well what are the details of that? I know you want to, and have to believe its capitulation. But since no details are out there for scrutiny kind of hard to say that isn't it?

With all due respect your post suggests that you have a limited capacity for reasonable inference...or maybe you are being disingenuous ?

 

[HandsonFire]

Not sure . But one thing I do know is Trump loves the taste of Putins dick.

At this point he’s probably tossing that salad.

 

[lawtig02]

This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.

Yeah, I have a feeling the things Russia fears, in order, are —

1. The US Air Force
2. The US Navy
3. The US Army
4. The US Marines





5. China




6. Any European country

 

[Zoo_View]

Yeah, I have a feeling the things Russia fears, in order, are —

1. The US Air Force
2. The US Navy
3. The US Army
4. The US Marines





5. China




6. Any European country

Saudi Arabia dramatically increasing oil production and causing crude oil prices to plummet is likely a Russian fear. It’s doubtful the Saudis will do so; but, they could eff with Russia if they chose to do so.

 

[dukeman92]

Just want to reiterate, this would not have gone off the rails if Vance had just kept his fat mouth shut.

He knew why he was there.

 

[dukeman92]

I assumed JD was there because Elon had other things to fuck up and couldn’t make it.

That's my burning question. Where was President Musk yesterday?!?!

 

[farce©]

From today’s Axios newsletter, a fairly concise overview.


Yesterday's Oval Office shouting match was shocking. But it wasn't too surprising to anyone close to President Trump or Vice President Vance.

• Why it matters: Privately, Trump sees Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a pro-Biden, ungrateful lightweight destined to lose to Russia. And Trump advisers believe Zelensky sees Trump as a pro-Putin, delusional fool destined to make him lose to Russia, Axios' Alex Isenstadt and Marc Caputo report.

To Trump's team, it was three strikes — and now officially out of favor — for Zelensky. In their eyes, Zelensky already had two strikes against him when he sat down with Trump and Vance.

• That was the backdrop for a conversation that would become perhaps the most epic televised foreign policy row in history — an argument that rattled Europe and vividly illustrated a sharp turn in U.S. foreign policy toward Russia.

It began with what Trump's team saw as Strike 3 against Zelensky: He disagreed publicly with Vance, who accused Zelensky of trying to "litigate" his case before the media.

• Vance said Zelensky didn't show enough thanks to the U.S. for funding Ukraine's defense — or to Trump for trying to bring peace.
• After a tense nine-minute exchange, it ended with Trump stopping the 50-minute meeting and essentially showing Zelensky the door.

Strike 2 came just before Friday's meeting, when Zelensky arrived at the White House without a suit or jacket, as requested. It was perceived by White House staffers as disrespectful.

• Zelensky was dressed instead in a three-button, skintight, long-sleeved black athletic shirt. "Wow look, you're all dressed up today," Trump said in a seemingly friendly way that advisers say masked annoyance.

Brian Glenn, a conservative reporter and boyfriend of Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), voiced the attitude of Trump's team when he asked Zelensky, "Why don't you wear a suit? … Do you own a suit?" Vance laughed out loud.

• "I will wear a [suit] after this war will finish," Zelensky said. "Maybe something like yours. Maybe something better ... maybe something cheaper."

Strike 1, as first reported by Axios, came Feb. 15, when Zelensky trashed a proposed mineral rights deal with Ukraine that he privately had discussed the day before in Munich with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.


The big picture: At the heart of the discord is Trump's view of the conflict, which continues to challenge the United States' long-held alliances in Europe.

• Trump sees geopolitics in terms of negotiations between powerful countries and big personalities. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a coequal in this paradigm. Zelensky — the leader of a smaller country surviving thanks to American largesse — isn't.

Trump also approaches politics like a business deal or, as a former casino owner, as a type of poker. In one telling moment, he told Zelensky he had a bad hand without the U.S.

• "I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious," Zelensky said. Trump shot back: "You're playing cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people."
• Quick to temper and desiring of flattery, Trump demands a high degree of obeisance from supplicants. Zelensky didn't show that — and Vance was quick to try to put him in his place.

Trump's expectation of deference from Zelensky is particularly high because of the massive aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine (an amount Trump inflates). The two have had a fraught relationship since 2019, when Trump was impeached for trying to leverage Zelensky for political gain against Joe Biden.

• Vance has long had antipathy for Zelensky and funding Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. In his 2022 Senate race in Ohio, Vance ran on a platform of ending Ukraine aid.

 

[CFordUNC]

America Joins the Jackals

Ukraine is only the first victim.

www.thebulwark.com

 

[nycfan]

America Joins the Jackals

Ukraine is only the first victim.

www.thebulwark.com

I lie like a whisper​

I lie with the lights out​

And it won′t take me long just to find you​

And it won't take me long just to find you​

​

I′m allied to the winter​

Don't you get clever​

Don't you get clever​

I′m allied to the landslide​

Gonna leave you all severed​

Gonna leave you all severed​

​

I alone am the answer​

I alone will make wrongs right​

But in order to root out the cancer​

It′s got to be kept from the sunlight​

​

I'm allied to the winter​

Don′t you get clever​

Don't you get clever​

I′m allied to the landslide​

Gonna leave you all severed​

Gonna leave you all severed​

​

I was born to a jackal​

I was born in a white house​

Gonna smother you all 'til I choke you​

Gonna smother you all ′til you kick out​

​

I'm allied to the winter​

Don't you get clever​

Don′t you get clever​

I′m allied to the landslide​

Gonna leave you all severed​

Gonna leave you all severed​

 

[CFordUNC]

A Shameful, Appalling Spectacle

In an Oval Office shitshow for the ages, Trump and Vance try to humiliate Ukraine’s wartime leader Zelensky.

www.thebulwark.com

 

[gtyellowjacket]

This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.

So what is everybody spending all that money on? I agree they aren't marching through Red square but if you're Russia, and lost millions of people in world war I and millions in WW2, you might not make the same risk calculation.

 

[05C40]

And let's not lose sight of the fact that a vast majority of the munitions the US is sending Ukraine are munitions whose expiration dates are coming up and if the US wasn't sending them to Ukraine we would be spending money to dispose of them. So, 1) the US saves money on disposal costs by sending these munitions to Ukraine and 2) the US pays domestic producers to replace these munitions. THE MONEY NEVER LEAVES THE US.

The key cost for the US is the transporation cost to get these munitions to Ukraine. And if these munitions are already in Europe, then these transportation costs are probably less than transporting them back to the US for disposal. Ukraine could probably make the argument that the US should be paying for Ukraine's disposal of our munitions into Russian tanks and drones.

And lets not underestimate the value of the knowledge the US has acquired from Ukraine about the use of and defense against drones. The value of lessons learned about drone warfare probably exceeds the costs of what the US has "given" Ukraine.

ETA: Link for example of the costs of weapons disposal -

Rocky Mountain Arsenal - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[CFordUNC]

Call it TDS if you wish, but it will never not shock me how anyone with any semblance of pride in themselves can allow themselves to defend someone as weak as Trump.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Machinehead]

Exactly. Zelensky just wasn't putting up with Trump's BS.

 

[lawtig02]

Saudi Arabia dramatically increasing oil production and causing crude oil prices to plummet is likely a Russian fear. It’s doubtful the Saudis will do so; but, they could eff with Russia if they chose to do so.

Good point. I was focusing on militaries, but Russia is highly dependent on Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, etc. for economic reasons.