Russia - US | Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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So the Kremlin is going to frame Ukraine for war crimes. And that's going to create outrage among Russians.

And if they need more outrage, in Moscow they can see they are being bombed by Ukraine. That's 21 million people in the Moscow Metro. Sure Russians will be outraged. But have a feeling they will see Putin as weak for allowing it to happen.
 

“… At the height of the offensive, Ukrainian forces controlled some 500 square miles of Russian territory. By Sunday, they were clinging to barely 30 square miles along the Russia-Ukraine border, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.

“The end of the battle is coming,” Mr. Paroinen said in a phone interview.

How much Russian territory Ukraine still controls in Kursk could not be independently confirmed, and soldiers reported fierce fighting was ongoing. But the fighting near the border is now less about holding Russian land, Ukrainian soldiers said, and more about trying to prevent Russian forces from pouring into the Sumy region of Ukraine and opening a new front in the war.

…
Andrii, a Ukrainian intelligence officer fighting in Kursk, put it more bluntly: “The Kursk operation is essentially over” he said. “Now we need to stabilize the situation.”

The Kursk operation was seen by some analysts as an unnecessary gamble, stretching Ukraine’s troops and leading to heavy casualties at a time when they were already struggling to defend a long front line in their own country. But it provided a much-needed morale boost to Ukraine, which had sought to show it could bring the war home to Russia and had hoped the territory it occupied there would serve as leverage in any cease-fire negotiations.

While Kyiv has managed to stall Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine, the turn in Kursk comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a quick truce. …”
 
nycfan said:

“… At the height of the offensive, Ukrainian forces controlled some 500 square miles of Russian territory. By Sunday, they were clinging to barely 30 square miles along the Russia-Ukraine border, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.

“The end of the battle is coming,” Mr. Paroinen said in a phone interview.

How much Russian territory Ukraine still controls in Kursk could not be independently confirmed, and soldiers reported fierce fighting was ongoing. But the fighting near the border is now less about holding Russian land, Ukrainian soldiers said, and more about trying to prevent Russian forces from pouring into the Sumy region of Ukraine and opening a new front in the war.

…
Andrii, a Ukrainian intelligence officer fighting in Kursk, put it more bluntly: “The Kursk operation is essentially over” he said. “Now we need to stabilize the situation.”

The Kursk operation was seen by some analysts as an unnecessary gamble, stretching Ukraine’s troops and leading to heavy casualties at a time when they were already struggling to defend a long front line in their own country. But it provided a much-needed morale boost to Ukraine, which had sought to show it could bring the war home to Russia and had hoped the territory it occupied there would serve as leverage in any cease-fire negotiations.

While Kyiv has managed to stall Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine, the turn in Kursk comes as the Trump administration is pushing for a quick truce. …”
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“… The reversal of Ukraine’s fortunes in Kursk did not come down to any one factor. Russian forces pounded Ukraine’s supply lines and began to cut off escape routes. North Korean troops brought in by Moscow, who faltered at first, improved their combat capabilities. And at a crucial moment, U.S. support — including intelligence sharing — was put on hold.

… However, despite claims to the contrary made by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Trump, at no point were large numbers of Kyiv’s forces surrounded, according to military analysts who use geolocated combat footage to map battlefield developments, Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk and even some prominent Russian military bloggers. …”
 
Back to the some analysts see Ukraine's Kursk operation as an unnecessary gamble.

(1) It diverted Russian resources away from the Eastern front and that front has broadly stabilized. Plus, Ukraine is actually making some minor but strategic gains there.
(2) Russia now has to protect its soft underbelly which is going to tie up even more resources over the course of this war.
(3) And, going forward, its hard to see how Russia can make a military breakthrough being that it is so stretched out.
 
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