SCOTUS Catch-all | Majority Minority districts unconstitutional racial gerrymander

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It is worth noting that the dissent in the Fluor case rested on an idea it calls "battlefield preemption." That is even more risible than "equal dignity doctrine" or the other contrivances they have invented. Is there a statute that preempts? Nope. A constitutional provision that preempts? Nope. Preemption because people are fighting. Sigh.

Edit: Apology -- Alito borrowed the logic from the lower court's "battlefield preemption" theory but did not endorse the phrase. However, his opinion is dripping with disdain for the military planners who just don't understand war nearly as well as Sam Alito. For instance:

"In the years before this event, Taliban supporters repeatedly attacked Bagram, but the military nevertheless decided for strategic reasons to adopt a policy known as “Afghan First,” which required contractors working on the base to maximize the employment of Afghans. Under that policy, military officials vetted Nayeb, a former Taliban member, and cleared him to work on the base. Giving a person with Nayeb’s background regular access to Bagram presented an obvious risk, but the decisionmakers apparently concluded that long-term foreign policy and defense objectives justified that danger."

[. . . ]

"Balancing these strategic objectives and Bagram’s security needs, military decisionmakers adopted a policy that entailed what they must have thought were tolerable and manageable risks."
 
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After a ruling like this one, and a likely movement of 8 to 10 seats to Republican states after the 2030 Census, we might not see a Democratic House in our lifetimes.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I wish I had your confidence.
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Did you see the poll nycfan cited on another thread putting the Dems up 10 on the generic ballot right now? That's not even accounting for enthusiasm or turnout.

Now do you think things are going to get better for Pubs from now until October, or worse?

I think we're seeing something I literally never thought I'd see: a genuine Louis XVI moment in our politics. Gas and food prices are rising and the president and his minions are focused on a ridiculously oversized, monstrously gaudy palace ballroom. Personally I don't think people will take well to that
 
superrific said:
Did you see the poll nycfan cited on another thread putting the Dems up 10 on the generic ballot right now? That's not even accounting for enthusiasm or turnout.

Now do you think things are going to get better for Pubs from now until October, or worse?

I think we're seeing something I literally never thought I'd see: a genuine Louis XVI moment in our politics. Gas and food prices are rising and the president and his minions are focused on a ridiculously oversized, monstrously gaudy palace ballroom. Personally I don't think people will take well to that
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I see the polls but question how indicative of actual turnout and voting they are. Then there are other factors that could potentially come into play (e.g., efforts to suppress or challenge votes).
 
superrific said:
Who the fuck is Isaiah Martin?
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A liberal who grew to "fame" by challenging pub voters to actual debate/conversation. You've probably seen some of his videos and didn't know it. He's pretty sharp even if he is wrong here. I'm sure there was some tongue in cheek with his tweet. Probably aimed at riling up conservatives who follow him.
 
2026 = 4 more additional seats in FL (too late to redistrict other Southern states due to primary dates).

2028 = 10-12 additional seats under SC’s ruling today.

2032 = 8-10 additional seats under 2030 census.
Icky Mettle said:
I wish I had your confidence.
Click to expand...
Harvard/Harris poll shows the parties are tied. Although the Real Clear Politics average is Dems +5.2%
 
It maybe opens doors for that redistricting, but not necessarily. SCOTUS has produced another incoherent opinion that nobody can decipher. I certainly don't know what the fuck they are doing and neither, apparently, does the majority.

It is a clown show par excellence.
 
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