St.Andrews/Now Limestone

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Is admissions only down at these smaller HBCU and smaller private schools? At some point you'd think community college admissions goes up while full-time Universities goes down given the shaky ROI.
 
gregh1 said:
Is admissions only down at these smaller HBCU and smaller private schools? At some point you'd think community college admissions goes up while full-time Universities goes down given the shaky ROI.
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I have no idea about the ROI -but "I think" the population of HS grads each year is going down..........
 
mpaer said:
I have no idea about the ROI -but "I think" the population of HS grads each year is going down..........
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There are declines in enrollment of HBCU's starting at about 2010. That actually mirrors declines in attendance across all Universities.

But attendance did not decline equally across all Universities. If you think of all universities together as a finite number of seats, the most desirable schools will fill their seats first while there will not be enough students to fill the less desirable schools. Desirable can mean different things to different people so even the least desirable schools probably wouldn't go to zero students, but if there aren't enough customers to pay the overhead, the school will likely be forced to close.

And that is what is happening to a lot of these smaller private schools including a fair number of HBCU's. But it certainly is not just an HBCU issue.
 
gregh1 said:
Is admissions only down at these smaller HBCU and smaller private schools? At some point you'd think community college admissions goes up while full-time Universities goes down given the shaky ROI.
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The biggest driver is the "demographic cliff" where the number of college age folks is declining.

You're correct that the problem does not affect all colleges/universities equally, as the top schools continue to be fine and less expensive colleges (and online schools) tend to still attract students due to comparatively lower costs. The ones who are suffering the most are smaller schools, particularly private ones, which can't really cut/contain costs and don't have a real way to attract sufficient students in a period of falling enrollments.
 
gregh1 said:
Is admissions only down at these smaller HBCU and smaller private schools? At some point you'd think community college admissions goes up while full-time Universities goes down given the shaky ROI.
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I think we’re going to see some serious pressure on community colleges in several states in the next decade. They will be competing with smaller regional publics for dwindling resources and their price advantage is going to run into a wall as enrollments drop.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
I think we’re going to see some serious pressure on community colleges in several states in the next decade. They will be competing with smaller regional publics for dwindling resources and their price advantage is going to run into a wall as enrollments drop.
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I'm not so sure. Community colleges also have a real expense advantage. They hire less credentialed and cheaper faculty and their facilities tend to be much more spartan than your average University. I just don't think a University could cut that much to get their costs inline with community colleges without losing accreditation.

They also can serve a different population with things like HVAC repair, and people that want to stay local. I think there will be room for both.
 
They may lean more heavily into HS dual enrollment models one would think - particularly if HSs are under similar types of funding and demographic pressures.
 
SnoopRob said:
The biggest driver is the "demographic cliff" where the number of college age folks is declining.

You're correct that the problem does not affect all colleges/universities equally, as the top schools continue to be fine and less expensive colleges (and online schools) tend to still attract students due to comparatively lower costs. The ones who are suffering the most are smaller schools, particularly private ones, which can't really cut/contain costs and don't have a real way to attract sufficient students in a period of falling enrollments.
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I think private LACS with current enrollments below 2000 AND endowments below $300k per student are going to be in a world of hurt in 15-20 years if they can’t significantly grow the student body or the endowment.
 
"the number of college age folks is declining"

I guess we're talking about the latter half of Gen X's kids? Was that a small group of people, or are those people just having fewer kids? I'm wondering if this pattern is expected to hold, or if the "older" Gen Y was a big cohort, thus their army of kids will bump the number of college age folks back up?
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I'm not so sure. Community colleges also have a real expense advantage. They hire less credentialed and cheaper faculty and their facilities tend to be much more spartan than your average University. I just don't think a University could cut that much to get their costs inline with community colleges without losing accreditation.

They also can serve a different population with things like HVAC repair, and people that want to stay local. I think there will be room for both.
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Just take a Quick Look at what they’ve done to Elizabeth City State: Home
 
donbosco said:
Just take a Quick Look at what they’ve done to Elizabeth City State: Home
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Its nice but its not 1000 landscaped acres with buildings that are winning architectural awards. Compare that office building inspired campus to a place like Chapel Hill or even NC State and I think there would be a significant difference.

But thinking harder about it, many universities have many of their buildings paid for with donations and I would guess that is rarer at community colleges. They have to pay rent or a building note. But that new building is going to have significantly lower maintenance and utility costs than an 80 year old building at UNC. So I don't really know who would have an advantage.

ETA: and I think I completely missed your point as Elizabeth City State is not a community college. You might have to clarify what you were trying to get across for me.
 
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gregh1 said:
"the number of college age folks is declining"

I guess we're talking about the latter half of Gen X's kids? Was that a small group of people, or are those people just having fewer kids? I'm wondering if this pattern is expected to hold, or if the "older" Gen Y was a big cohort, thus their army of kids will bump the number of college age folks back up?
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You're correct that it's largely the latter half of Gen X's kids. I think it was a smaller group of people (relative to those before it) having fewer kids.

In short, birthrates have been falling for a long time. But it's been since 2007 that birthrates (in the US) have consistently fallen below replacement level (2.1 kids per woman). And, doing a bit of math, the kids born in that year are now 18 and this is where we are.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Its nice but its not 1000 landscaped acres with buildings that are winning architectural awards. Compare that office building inspired campus to a place like Chapel Hill or even NC State and I think there would be a significant difference.

But thinking harder about it, many universities have many of their buildings paid for with donations and I would guess that is rarer at community colleges. They have to pay rent or a building note. But that new building is going to have significantly lower maintenance and utility costs than an 80 year old building at UNC. So I don't really know who would have an advantage.

ETA: and I think I completely missed your point as Elizabeth City State is not a community college. You might have to clarify what you were trying to get across from me.
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They've basically turned it into a Community College.
 
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