Tariffs Catch-All

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Zoo_View said:
Almost no one in NATO will increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. It’s taken years and years to get 23 nations to 2% or higher. Poland is above 4% - that’s it.
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The deal is actually 3.5% on defense and 1.5% on defense-related infrastructure … it was a compromise from Trump’s demand for 4% on defense across the board (and reflects essentially the status quo in U.S. spending now).
 
Zoo_View said:
Almost no one in NATO will increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. It’s taken years and years to get 23 nations to 2% or higher. Poland is above 4% - that’s it.
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But he’ll claim that they are. And the other nations are smart enough to not dispute it because they understand all they need to do is allow Trump to announce the deal without actually following through on it.
 
Zoo_View said:
Almost no one in NATO will increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. It’s taken years and years to get 23 nations to 2% or higher. Poland is above 4% - that’s it.
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Not sure you're right. The Europeans are looking for ways to jump start technology and manufacturing -- especially Germany. Germany, of course, was not allowed to have a military-industrial complex after WWII. They aren't increasing it because Trump tells them to; but they might be increasing it as industrial policy.
 
Super, you could be correct.

I expect the NATO nations themselves will have trouble increasing defense spending much. Increasing defense spending will mean cutting elsewhere. Those cuts will be unpopular.

All but 6 NATO nations (Poland - 4.12, Estonia - 3.43, USA - 3.38, Latvia - 3.15, Greece - 3.08, Lithuania - 2.85) spend less than 2.5% of GDP on defense. Four of the nations that spend the highest percentage either border Russia or are damn close to it AND remember decades of Soviet rule. Finland is 7th at 2.41%.

Getting a majority of NATO nations to 3% will be nigh on impossible. 4%? 5% is laughable.

The UK spends 2.33; Germany spends 2.12.

Doesn’t Germany have an industrial policy?

Doesn’t it have highly competent defense companies (Leopard tanks, Puma armored vehicles, Heckler & Koch small arms, ammunition manufacturers, cruise missile programs and production)? It doesn’t have anything major in terms of helicopters or fighters/bombers.

Does an industrial policy based on defense spending produce net gains? All those munitions used during training or war are gone.
 
Zoo_View said:
Super, you could be correct.

I expect the NATO nations themselves will have trouble increasing defense spending much. Increasing defense spending will mean cutting elsewhere. Those cuts will be unpopular.

All but 6 NATO nations (Poland - 4.12, Estonia - 3.43, USA - 3.38, Latvia - 3.15, Greece - 3.08, Lithuania - 2.85) spend less than 2.5% of GDP on defense. Four of the nations that spend the highest percentage either border Russia or are damn close to it AND remember decades of Soviet rule. Finland is 7th at 2.41%.

Getting a majority of NATO nations to 3% will be nigh on impossible. 4%? 5% is laughable.

The UK spends 2.33; Germany spends 2.12.

Doesn’t Germany have an industrial policy?

Doesn’t it have highly competent defense companies (Leopard tanks, Puma armored vehicles, Heckler & Koch small arms, ammunition manufacturers, cruise missile programs and production)? It doesn’t have anything major in terms of helicopters or fighters/bombers.

Does an industrial policy based on defense spending produce net gains? All those munitions used during training or war are gone.
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German leaders seem to think that military spending is a key to modernizing the economy. I don't know how true that is, but it seems as though German officials across the board have said as much. I don't know if defense spending produces net gains, but the Germans seem to think it does.
 
superrific said:
German leaders seem to think that military spending is a key to modernizing the economy. I don't know how true that is, but it seems as though German officials across the board have said as much. I don't know if defense spending produces net gains, but the Germans seem to think it does.
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If Germans think it produces net gains, why is Germany’s defense spending at 2.12% of GDP (15th in NATO)?

Germany and most of NATO are blowing smoke up Trump’s ass. “Yes, we’ll increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by the mid-2030’s……sure. Of course we will.”
 
nycfan said:
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“…
China’s Commerce Ministry, in a written statement carried by state media, appeared to confirm details of a deal alluded to by President Trump hours earlier, with Beijing promising to “review and approve eligible export applications for controlled items in accordance with the law.”

… As part of a follow-up meeting in London to reaffirm the terms of the Geneva meeting, China also said the U.S. would lift a series of measures imposed against it, without providing details.

During an event at the White House on Thursday, Trump said the U.S. had “just signed” a deal with China, though he didn’t mention rare earths. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later said in a television interview on Thursday that the agreement had been signed two days earlier….”

——
Progress and a sigh of relief in the auto industry, among others, but not quite a full-blown trade deal as Trump seemed to imply yesterday.
 
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