Tariffs Catch-All

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Ramrouser said:
Nothing close to 100% of the tariff amounts are being passed onto consumers as a "tax." 10% to 15% tariffs just may be the sweet spot. Yes, higher tariffs could not be absorbed by the companies and would have to be passed to the consumer but that hasn't happened for the most part. Trump's process of using tariffs as economic leverage has worked splendidly. Look at the EU deal.

I've been reading your posts since the first of the year with your economic forecasts:

Where's the recession?
Where's the sharp spike in inflation caused by tariffs?
Where' s the higher gas prices or price of eggs?
Where's the evidence of the world turning away from the US as a trading partner? We're locking down trade deals every day which are beneficial to the US. The rest of the world is coming to us for deals.
Where's the stock market crash?
Where's the economic chaos y'all predicted?
Click to expand...
What the hell are you talking about? Why do you just make things up?

You’ve never once seen me predict a stock market crash, or seen me say that the rest of the world is going to shut out the United States as a trading partner, or that a recession is guaranteed, or that I can guarantee what is going to happen with prices of commodities. You know why you’ve never seen me post any of those things? Because I’m not an economist and have zero expertise in any of the above, and therefore do not feel any qualification to make such exaggerated outlandish predictions. Either quit being a damn liar or quit confusing me with another poster.

What you’ve seen me say is that inflation has increased, because it has. That’s not debatable. What you’ve seen me say is that the price is on things like gas, groceries, etc. have increased, because they have. That’s not debatable. What you’ve seen me say is that tariffs are god-awful stupid economic policy, which they are largely proving to be. What you’ve seen me say is that we are yanking the chains of our biggest allies and trading partners for no added benefit whatsoever to you and me, the American consumer. What you’ve seen me say is that Trump is the biggest pussy to have ever stained the Oval Office because he keeps backing down like a beta bitch in front of the entire world, which is deeply humiliating us.

You are either dishonest or dimwitted if you are trying to make the argument that inflation has not increased or that prices have not increased as a result of the tariffs. Prices on food, household items, clothing, coffee, toys, appliances, automobiles, construction supplies, etc., etc., etc. have all increased as a direct result of the Trump tariffs. Are you trying to argue that they haven’t? Are you sure you want to do that here?
 
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Ramrouser said:
Nothing close to 100% of the tariff amounts are being passed onto consumers as a "tax." 10% to 15% tariffs just may be the sweet spot. Yes, higher tariffs could not be absorbed by the companies and would have to be passed to the consumer but that hasn't happened for the most part. Trump's process of using tariffs as economic leverage has worked splendidly. Look at the EU deal.

I've been reading your posts since the first of the year with your economic forecasts:

Where's the recession?
Where's the sharp spike in inflation caused by tariffs?
Where' s the higher gas prices or price of eggs?
Where's the evidence of the world turning away from the US as a trading partner? We're locking down trade deals every day which are beneficial to the US. The rest of the world is coming to us for deals.
Where's the stock market crash?
Where's the economic chaos y'all predicted?
Click to expand...
www.investopedia.com

Recency (Availability) Bias: What it is, How it Works

The recency bias, or availability bias, identified by behavioral economics, is when people overweight new information or recent events.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com

In behavioral economics, recency bias (also known as availability bias) is the tendency for people to overweight new information or events without considering the objective probabilities of those events over the long run.

Availability bias matters for the financial markets, as memory of recent market news or events can lead investors to irrationally believe that a similar event is more likely to occur again than its objective probability. As a result, investors may make decisions to sell into bear markets, or buy into bubbles, since crashes and bubbles can be salient in the minds of individuals as they occur.

* * *

A well-known example of recency bias is that people tend to overreact to news of a shark attack that has recently occurred. Shark attacks, especially deadly ones, are extremely rare—killing just a handful of people each year. In 2023, for example, there were only 69 reported unprovoked shark attacks worldwide. Nevertheless, many fewer people swim in the ocean following reports of a shark attack, with many people believing the odds are far greater than they actually are. Indeed, after the 1975 blockbuster movie Jaws came out, the notion of an unprovoked shark attack became incredibly salient, leading to far fewer swimmers than in previous years.

For investors, availability bias affects the trading decisions that people make based on recent events or headlines, expecting such events to be more frequent than they actually are. During a market crash, people may adopt a negative outlook that assumes a bear trend will continue, even though the drawdown may merely be a correction. On the other hand, during asset bubbles, when prices reach levels that are no longer supported by fundamentals, people may continue buying under the false belief that the rally can only continue.

Whether it’s sharks or stocks, overweighting recent (i.e., available) information is irrational since it does not accurately reflect the true probabilities of future events.

Recency bias can be difficult to counteract because it plays on human emotions of fear and greed, which are powerful forces. Moreover, our brains are wired to put the most emphasis on recent events that are fresh in our memories as older events fade out of mind.
 
I go back-and-forth on whether I want to treat ramrouser with disdain for being purposefully militantly wrong on literally everything that he ever posts, or with deep pity for being irreparably dim. Between his trying to make the argument that Adolf Hitler was left-wing, that Libs of TikTok somehow speaks for the entire liberal movement in America, and now his assertion that inflation and prices of every day goods has not increased as a result of tariffs, I guess I’m going to have to begrudgingly choose the pity route. There’s no way this is an act anymore.
 
I asked ChatGPT which companies have already raised prices as a result of tariffs, or have announced plans to do so, and received the following:

"
Some companies that have either raised prices or announced plans to raise prices due to tariffs include:
  • Stanley Black & Decker: Expects a significant impact from tariffs and has already raised prices on tools, home, kitchen, and outdoor products, with further increases anticipated.
  • Conagra Brands: Has stated that tariffs will lead to increased costs.
  • Tesla: Management has indicated higher tariffs will raise costs.
  • Nestlé: Considering raising prices on certain products, including candy bars, due to tariff concerns.
  • Moncler: Already hiked apparel prices to offset tariff-related costs.
  • General Electric: Estimates proposed tariffs could cost the company around $500 million in 2025 and plans to offset these costs through pricing actions.
  • Johanna Foods:
    An orange juice importer, filed a lawsuit against proposed tariffs on Brazil, stating they would significantly hurt their business and force price increases of up to 25%.
  • Nike: Anticipates a substantial increase in tariff costs and plans to raise prices accordingly.
  • Shein and Temu: Noted increased operating expenses due to changes in trade rules and tariffs, leading to price adjustments.
  • Volkswagen: Stated it would impose an import fee on cars manufactured outside the U.S.
  • Target: CEO Brian Cornell warned that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would likely result in some price increases, particularly on produce.
  • Columbia Sportswear: CEO Tim Boyle indicated the company was "set to raise prices."
  • Procter & Gamble (P&G): Planning price increases on approximately a quarter of its U.S. products, in the mid-single digits, to offset tariff costs.
  • Walmart: Warned of price increases across a wide range of goods, including food, toys, and electronics, due to tariffs driving up import costs. CNBC observed price increases on several items in a Walmart store, although it's difficult to definitively attribute all increases solely to tariffs.
  • Subaru: Raised prices on most of its vehicles, citing "current market conditions" without explicitly mentioning tariffs.
  • Toyota: Planned to raise prices on some Toyota and Lexus models.
  • Mitsubishi Motors: Raised prices in mid-June.
  • Newell Brands (Graco, Yankee Candle, Rubbermaid): Raised prices on baby gear and has been impacted by tariffs.
  • Levi Strauss: Absorbing some tariff costs but anticipates an impact on its business for the rest of the year.
  • Walmart and Mattel: These are among brands facing tariff-driven price increases.
  • UPPAbaby: Adjusted prices across most products.
  • Loftie: Raised the price of its lamp due to tariffs.
  • SharkNinja: Raised prices on several products and plans to continue doing so.
  • Birkenstock: Plans to raise prices globally to offset tariffs before September.
  • Kosterina: This olive oil brand is expected to see price increases due to tariffs.
  • Best Buy: Warned that vendors would likely pass along tariff costs to retailers, leading to price increases for consumers.
  • Nintendo: Delayed pre-orders for the Switch 2 due to tariff concerns. While the console's price is expected to remain the same, accessories will likely see price adjustments.
  • Sony (PlayStation): CFO hinted at potentially passing on tariff costs through price increases.
  • Wholesale distributors: Expect significant price increases due to tariffs.
  • Companies across various sectors (consumer, luxury, automotive): Many are confronting pricing dilemmas due to tariffs, with some implementing increases and others navigating the impact. "
 
CFordUNC said:
I go back-and-forth on whether I want to treat ramrouser with disdain for being purposefully militantly wrong on literally everything that he ever posts, or with deep pity for being irreparably dim. Between his trying to make the argument that Adolf Hitler was left-wing, that Libs of TikTok somehow speaks for the entire liberal movement in America, and now his assertion that inflation and prices of every day goods has not increased as a result of tariffs, I guess I’m going to have to begrudgingly choose the pity route. There’s no way this is an act anymore.
Click to expand...
I don't think it's that complicated. Ram is a late-stage Boomer. He benefitted from all of the economic run-up from 1980-1999, without suffering from the stagflation in the 15 years before that. If you watch Wolf of Wall Street, that's Ram, just in Atlanta rather than NYC.

There has never been a more privileged generation in American history. And there's also never been a generation in American history more convinced of its victimhood.

Ram is the paragon of the late-Boomer, very early Gen X. There has never been, and there never will be, a generation more incapable of separating its privilege from its results. And unfortunately, it will be decades before that generation works its way out of our politics.
 

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www.cnbc.com

"With Trump tariff deadline one day away, U.S. economy’s wholesalers, distributors fear the worst and plan for price increases"
www.reuters.com

Trump gets tariffs; Americans get price hikes

Companies are making it clear how they intend to deal with tariffs.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

"Trump gets tariffs; Americans get price hikes"

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

"Companies from Stanley Black & Decker to Conagra are saying tariffs will cost them hundreds of millions. The management remarks come as economists doubt that importers will continue absorbing cost increases tied to tariffs, and say they’re likely to pass them on to consumers instead."
www.foxbusiness.com

Parent company of Charmin and Tide brands to raise prices on other products due to tariff pressure

P&G plans single-digit price hikes on about a quarter of its U.S. products as it looks to offset about $1 billion in cost increases stemming from higher tariffs.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com

"Parent company of Charmin and Tide brands to raise prices on other products due to tariff pressure"​


You want me to keep going, ramrouser?
 
Ramrouser said:
Where's the recession?
Where's the sharp spike in inflation caused by tariffs?
Where' s the higher gas prices or price of eggs?
Where's the evidence of the world turning away from the US as a trading partner? We're locking down trade deals every day which are beneficial to the US. The rest of the world is coming to us for deals.
Where's the stock market crash?
Where's the economic chaos y'all predicted?
Click to expand...
Isn't a little early to be giving yourself a high-five for Trump's economy? Hardly any tariffs have been enforced yet.
 
lawtig02 said:
I don't think it's that complicated. Ram is a late-stage Boomer. He benefitted from all of the economic run-up from 1980-1999, without suffering from the stagflation in the 15 years before that. If you watch Wolf of Wall Street, that's Ram, just in Atlanta rather than NYC.

There has never been a more privileged generation in American history. And there's also never been a generation in American history more convinced of its victimhood.

Ram is the paragon of the late-Boomer, very early Gen X. There has never been, and there never will be, a generation more incapable of separating its privilege from its results. And unfortunately, it will be decades before that generation works its way out of our politics.
Click to expand...
Hmm, I was born in '66 (very early Gen X) and don't see myself that way.
 
superrific said:
Economic growth has been 1.3% this year. WTF are you talking about? And it's going to get worse, not better. Did you see that business investment was DOWN last quarter? That's a leading indicator (look it up).

Meanwhile, GM and Ford together lost about $2B because of tariffs. Why do you hate American car companies so much? How long do you think they can go on losing that kind of money?
Click to expand...
...and
Stellantis warns of $1.7 billion earnings hit from tariffs - CBS News Stellantis warns of $1.7 billion earnings hit from tariffs
 
Trump: *slaps trading partners with tariffs*

American companies: “We are now paying higher costs to import goods, which we will be forced to pass along to the consumer.”

American companies: *passes costs along to consumer*

American treasury: *sees $150 billion in increased revenue, a direct result of the increased prices businesses are paying on imported goods which they subsequently pass along to the consumer in the form of price raises*

MAGAts: “The Trump tariffs are working!!! There hasn’t been any inflation! Prices haven’t increased!! But we have $150 billion more revenue!!!”

The rest of us who aren’t stupid, who understand how tariffs function, who understand the very elementary concept that the increased revenue is the additional tax companies pay to the government for importing from tariffed partners, and who don’t guzzle Fox News:

Whats Wrong With You GIF by Red Table Talk
 
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lawtig02 said:
I don't think it's that complicated. Ram is a late-stage Boomer. He benefitted from all of the economic run-up from 1980-1999, without suffering from the stagflation in the 15 years before that. If you watch Wolf of Wall Street, that's Ram, just in Atlanta rather than NYC.

There has never been a more privileged generation in American history. And there's also never been a generation in American history more convinced of its victimhood.

Ram is the paragon of the late-Boomer, very early Gen X. There has never been, and there never will be, a generation more incapable of separating its privilege from its results. And unfortunately, it will be decades before that generation works its way out of our politics.
Click to expand...
Interesting....not saying I agree with all of it but interesting nonetheless. I certainly don't think of myself as a victim of anything. I admit, I'm living the good life and couldn't be happier AND benefitted from the booming Reagan/Bush I/Clinton economy I came of age in. I do feel for first time home buyers who are trying to buy homes today with ridiculously inflated prices and relatively high interest rates (thanks Too Late!). I thought I was paying a King's ransom when I bought my current home in ATL in the early 90s for $325,000. It's now worth close to 4x that price. Do I think I deserve any credit for this? Not really other than making the decision to buy in town property. Am I a real estate savant? NO. I got lucky and I recognize that fact. Others in my age range also benefitted in real estate. I do give myself and my wife credit for buying coastal properties when we were in our early 40s. We purposefully got into the market well before the explosion of prices.

So, I recognize that due to many outside circumstances where I benefited, "life's been good to me so far."
 
Ramrouser said:
Interesting....not saying I agree with all of it but interesting nonetheless. I certainly don't think of myself as a victim of anything. I admit, I'm living the good life and couldn't be happier AND benefitted from the booming Reagan/Bush I/Clinton economy I came of age in. I do feel for first time home buyers who are trying to buy homes today with ridiculously inflated prices and relatively high interest rates (thanks Too Late!). I thought I was paying a King's ransom when I bought my current home in ATL in the early 90s for $325,000. It's now worth close to 4x that price. Do I think I deserve any credit for this? Not really other than making the decision to buy in town property. Am I a real estate savant? NO. I got lucky and I recognize that fact. Others in my age range also benefitted in real estate. I do give myself and my wife credit for buying coastal properties when we were in our early 40s. We purposefully got into the market well before the explosion of prices.

So, I recognize that due to many outside circumstances where I benefited, "life's been good to me so far."
Click to expand...
None of that has anything to do with why you apparently do not understand very simple economic concepts, such as the notion that tariffs are a tax on the American consumer. I have quite literally never seen anyone make that argument, even conservatives who are in favor of the tariffs don’t make such an asinine argument; they simply say that the increased costs are a price worth paying. If you are so excited about paying higher taxes, we might as well start calling you a Marxist liberal!
 
CFordUNC said:

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

"With Trump tariff deadline one day away, U.S. economy’s wholesalers, distributors fear the worst and plan for price increases"
www.reuters.com

Trump gets tariffs; Americans get price hikes

Companies are making it clear how they intend to deal with tariffs.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

"Trump gets tariffs; Americans get price hikes"

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

"Companies from Stanley Black & Decker to Conagra are saying tariffs will cost them hundreds of millions. The management remarks come as economists doubt that importers will continue absorbing cost increases tied to tariffs, and say they’re likely to pass them on to consumers instead."
www.foxbusiness.com

Parent company of Charmin and Tide brands to raise prices on other products due to tariff pressure

P&G plans single-digit price hikes on about a quarter of its U.S. products as it looks to offset about $1 billion in cost increases stemming from higher tariffs.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com

"Parent company of Charmin and Tide brands to raise prices on other products due to tariff pressure"​


You want me to keep going, ramrouser?
Click to expand...
Trump is bad for business.
 
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