Tariffs Catch-All

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Thanks UNCMS, I'm catching up after a few days being away from the board. I saw you answered to someone else already as I continued reading.
 
www.nytimes.com

Trump’s Unwelcome News to Auto Chiefs: Buckle Up for What’s to Come

President Trump’s approach to tariffs has unsettled many corporate leaders who believed he would use the levies as a negotiating tool. As it turns out, he sees them as an end in themselves.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The line fell silent.

In a phone call from the Oval Office, President Trump had just delivered unwelcome news to three of America’s most powerful auto executives: Mary Barra of General Motors, John Elkann of Stellantis and Jim Farley of Ford.

Everyone needs to buckle up, Mr. Trump said on the call, which took place in early March. Tariffs are going into effect on April 2. It’s time for everyone to get on board.

The auto chiefs, like the leaders of other industries, had been arguing that Mr. Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on cars coming from Canada and Mexico would wreak havoc on their supply chains and blow a hole through their industry. They had won a concession of sorts when Mr. Trump agreed to give them a one-month reprieve, until April 2.

But now, the Big Three automaker chiefs seemed to realize there was no point in fighting for more. They had gotten as much as they were going to get.

For corporate America, including some major donors, the shock of Mr. Trump’s second term is that it turns out he really does believe the thing he’s been saying publicly for 40 years: Foreign countries are ripping America off, and tariffs are a silver bullet for America’s problems. When he says that “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary, he means it.

To Mr. Trump, tariffs are not merely a negotiating tool. He believes they will make America rich again. And they combine two of his favorite features of the presidency: They are a unilateral power that he can turn on or off on a whim, and they create a begging economy, forcing powerful people to come before him to plead for mercy.
 
Healing said:
Hope you picked up that Sequoia, cford.
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Man, I tell you what, this is going to be one of those times where my stupid habit of procrastinating and putting off a big purchase is going to bite me in the ass and cost me even more money.
 
altmin said:
They are a unilateral power that he can turn on or off on a whim, and they create a begging economy, forcing powerful people to come before him to plead for mercy.
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Trump is a narcissist and megalomaniac.
 
superrific said:
It ain't just Canadians. The American tourism industry is going to get hammered.

And Las Vegas? I can't imagine casino owners are feeling great right now. Hey waiters and waitresses in Vegas, how are you enjoying your "no taxes on tips"? Oh, right, that was bullshit. Meanwhile, tax on tips not given really doesn't matter.
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Canadians are well-known for being shitty tippers.
 
Paine said:
It’s a fair point. I have maybe 3-4 drinks a month. I generally regret it afterwards since it makes my rosacea flare up. I mostly drink aperitivos for the taste rather than the drunkenness. I would definitely save a good amount of money.
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No one is drinking aperitivos to get drunk. Especially 3-4 drinks a month. My guess is you like the mild bitterness and refreshing crispness of many of the Italian aperitivos……they’re an odd combination of just refreshing enough on a hot day and bitter enough on a hot day that one drink easily lasts an hour.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Well, why travel to visit our magnificent national parks that starting this summer will have almost no park rangers to help you do anything, will likely have many shuttered facilities, and will soon be used for mining, logging, and drilling anyway? Thanks Dear Leader!
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And, longer lines and nasty, dirty bathrooms.
 
This is probably the end of the traditional US Auto industry. It's hard to see how it survives these tariffs. The back and forth nature of automobile manufacturing with Canada is evolutionary and necessary for the modernization of the industry. Reversing course is just untenable - but the costs incurred by these tariffs will price these cars out of the market. I assume Trump, et al will tariff other vehicles from foreign manufacturers who bring parts in from overseas and assemble in the USA - like VW, BMW, etc. Eventually, the price of a car will be so expensive that the average person will not be able to afford an automobile. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers will thrive in this environment as tariffs and retaliatory tariffs make all US cars uncompetitive. And Chinese automakers take over the world....especially in Europe and throughout Asia.

I rode in my first BYD over the weekend. It's not a very comfortable car - but it's cheap and it works....feels like a Tesla but considerably more affordable.

The tariff situation is so baffling because it is so clearly wrong headed and economically unsound. You can apply my comments above to basically every industry Trump gets his little fingers on.
 
p5mmr9 said:
This is probably the end of the traditional US Auto industry. It's hard to see how it survives these tariffs. The back and forth nature of automobile manufacturing with Canada is evolutionary and necessary for the modernization of the industry. Reversing course is just untenable - but the costs incurred by these tariffs will price these cars out of the market. I assume Trump, et al will tariff other vehicles from foreign manufacturers who bring parts in from overseas and assemble in the USA - like VW, BMW, etc. Eventually, the price of a car will be so expensive that the average person will not be able to afford an automobile. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers will thrive in this environment as tariffs and retaliatory tariffs make all US cars uncompetitive. And Chinese automakers take over the world....especially in Europe and throughout Asia.

I rode in my first BYD over the weekend. It's not a very comfortable car - but it's cheap and it works....feels like a Tesla but considerably more affordable.

The tariff situation is so baffling because it is so clearly wrong headed and economically unsound. You can apply my comments above to basically every industry Trump gets his little fingers on.
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He thinks Ford will see the sales drop then suddenly have tens of billions of dollars to renovate/ build new factories. He also things they will magically appear when you hit the purchase button as if playing a video game.

In the time it would take to do all that, Ford would go under on lack of sales/ costs of building. The used car market is going to go through the roof too.
 
altmin said:
He thinks Ford will see the sales drop then suddenly have tens of billions of dollars to renovate/ build new factories. He also things they will magically appear when you hit the purchase button as if playing a video game.

In the time it would take to do all that, Ford would go under on lack of sales/ costs of building. The used car market is going to go through the roof too.
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They would have to build new assembly plants, but also resource material plants and component plants. And then even if you could do all of that immediately - you'd have a labor cost issue and a labor supply issue. The net result would be a far less cost competitive product. Again, most people would not be able to afford an automobile in this type of environment. The numbers just do not add up. And worse - no one would buy an American made automobile outside the USA.

Again - this hypothetical thought experiment can be applied to almost every sector outside of a few very skilled labor sectors.
 
I tried to write a post wrapping my head around the absurdity of these tariffs as a means to shift production back to the USA; and it was such an absurdity - I couldn't even be bothered to finish the napkin math. The numbers are so obscenely ridiculous - there is absolutely no chance anyone in the Trump administration actually ran numbers on these tariffs to see how high they would have to be in order to actually incentivize supply chain shifts back to the USA. The difference between labor costs in the USA and other developed nations compared with developing nations is just impossible to sum out of the equation equitably and competitively. That of course is a different issue than the Canada trade situation - but if the ultimate goal is to bring manufacturing back to the USA - then developing nations have to be in the Trump administration's sights.
 
p5mmr9 said:
They would have to build new assembly plants, but also resource material plants and component plants. And then even if you could do all of that immediately - you'd have a labor cost issue and a labor supply issue. The net result would be a far less cost competitive product. Again, most people would not be able to afford an automobile in this type of environment. The numbers just do not add up. And worse - no one would buy an American made automobile outside the USA.

Again - this hypothetical thought experiment can be applied to almost every sector outside of a few very skilled labor sectors.
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And how many years would it realisitcally take to do all of that? 15-20yrs at best? It would also require a huge investment by the Federal government to offset the startup costs.
 
bassydude77 said:
And how many years would it realisitcally take to do all of that? 15-20yrs at best? It would also require a huge investment by the Federal government to offset the startup costs.
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Considering just the capital investment required and the building time, it's amazing that people seem to believe this can happen overnight.
 
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