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Tariffs Catch-All
- Thread starter BubbaOtis
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1moretimeagain
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Bessent was apparently very successful in finance but believes significant dislocations in our financial markets won’t impact Main Street. Good luck.
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As many people have pointed out, the problem with this logic is that no company in its right mind is going to invest billions in US manufacturing when the success of that manufacturing is dependent on tariffs which Trump has constantly said are negotiable and therefore may be changed at any moment. You have to believe those tariffs will still be there in 3 years when you're finally ready to ramp up production.
Since the election, I've had at least two bankers tell me how good Trump was going to be for the economy. In both cases, I've wondered what are the chances that either would grant a loan to Trump considering his bankruptcy background, and the fact that he would have had several more bankruptcies if he had paid all his contractors.
When do we see economic impact outside of the stock market? I understand the stock market is a bit forward looking, but when do we see impact on jobs, gdp, cpi, etc?
Audi has paused their exports to the US. Dealers in US have just 60 days inventory.... ugh.
Audi has paused their exports to the US. Dealers in US have just 60 days inventory.... ugh.
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ZenMode
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NYT Live updates —> Trump Trade War
We have a shit ton of debt — crashing demand for U.S. treasuries would crush the economy.
GIFT LINK
—> Trump Tariffs Live Updates: China Retaliates Against U.S. Tariffs With 84% Levy- Bonds under pressure: Markets are in an unusual situation, with bond yields rising as stocks and the dollar fall. Yields rise when investors sell bonds — pulling down the price of bonds — which can reflect worries about inflation, shifts away from U.S. dollar assets or a need for investors to raise cash to cover losses on other trades. Rising yields push up the cost of borrowing for mortgages, credit cards, business loans and many other rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to around 4.4 percent, up from below 4 percent at the start of the week.
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Why the Selloff in Treasurys is Rattling Investors
A look at what’s driving the rise in U.S. government bond yields and what it could mean
GIFT LINK
—> https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...98?st=dCvcB1&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink“The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen to a recent 4.47% from 4.20% over four days, marking its sharpest increase since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.
The decline in bond prices (the counterpart of a rise in yields) has alarmed many analysts and investors much more than the recent drop in stocks. …Normally, Treasurys rally during a sharp selloff in stocks, because the U.S. has long been the safest and easiest market to trade in, but they aren’t this time….”
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Why the Selloff in Treasurys is Rattling Investors
A look at what’s driving the rise in U.S. government bond yields and what it could mean
GIFT LINK
“The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen to a recent 4.47% from 4.20% over four days, marking its sharpest increase since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.
The decline in bond prices (the counterpart of a rise in yields) has alarmed many analysts and investors much more than the recent drop in stocks. …”
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Nearly 200,000 fewer Europeans flew to the US in March, new data shows - The Points Guy
Europeans are joining the increasingly global cohort of travelers opting not to take trips to the U.S.
Europeans are joining the increasingly global cohort of travelers opting not to take trips to the U.S.
Roughly 178,000 fewer Western Europeans arrived in the U.S. by air in March compared to last year, new data from the U.S. International Trade Administration shows. That represents a 17.4% drop to 846,577 travelers.
Visitors to the U.S. from France, Germany and the U.K. — the three largest European origin countries for U.S.-bound travelers — fell 5%, 29% and 15%, respectively.
Unfortunately, a huge number of Americans believe him and think he’s a business genius.
ZenMode
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“… Trump announced the countries now subject to tariffs in a Wednesday press conference, using a poster as a prop. Additional countries—including the Heard and McDonald Islands, which are, incidentally, not countries—were listed on sheets of paper distributed to reporters.
One of the sheets claims that the Heard and McDonald Islands currently charge a “Tariff to the U.S.A.” of 10 percent, clarifying in tiny letters that this includes "currency manipulation and trade barriers." In return, the sheet says that the US will charge "discounted reciprocal tariffs" on the islands at a rate of 10 percent.
… The Australian Antarctic Division claims that the area occasionally receives ships involved in scientific research, commercial fishing, and tourism.“
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EU targets Trump’s red states with tariffs on US trucks, cigarettes and ice cream
European trade officials sure know how to have fun.
www.politico.eu
According to an internal document seen by POLITICO, the Commission is considering slapping tariffs of up to 25 percent on a broad range of exports from the U.S. worth around €22.1 billion based on the EU’s 2024 imports.
The list features run-of-the-mill agricultural and industrial commodities such as soybeans, meat, tobacco, iron, steel and aluminum — to hit the American sectors that rely most on transatlantic exports.
Dig deeper, and it turns out the EU’s trade nerds have stirred some unaccustomed creativity into their expert knowledge of obscure customs codes, while channeling a helping of passive aggression to inflict pain on Trump’s base.
EU countries are set to vote on the new duties on Wednesday, with no major opposition expected.
Once they’ve approved the list (which is technically made up of multiple lists), the first set of tariffs on goods such as cranberries or orange juice, which the EU initially imposed in 2018 during the first Trump presidency but suspended in 2021, will take effect on April 15.
A 25 percent duty will then kick in from May 16 on a second batch of imported items such as steel, meat, white chocolate and polyethylene. Finally, a 25 percent duty on almonds and soybeans will take effect Dec. 1. (Leave it to the Commission to build some suspense.)
Overall, EU duties are set to hit up to $13.5 billion worth of exports from red states, according to POLITICO's analysis of 2024 trade data.
Let’s start with the EU’s No. 1 target — soybeans, the most valuable item on the bloc’s hit list, a product whose economic and symbolic significance for the Republican Party's heartlands cannot be overstated.
...
The EU is also targeting beef from Kansas and Nebraska, poultry from Louisiana, car parts from Michigan, cigarettes from Florida, and wood products from North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.
While the Commission ended up dropping whiskey from the final draft after successful lobbying from France, Italy and Ireland, it did include other more niche items designed to cause the greatest pain to exporters in Republican states.
These include (but are not limited to) ice cream from Arizona, handkerchiefs from South Carolina, electric blankets from Alabama, ties and bow ties from Florida (unless they’re made of silk, which Democratic California will be more than happy to provide), and washing machines from Wisconsin.
Pasta from Florida and South Carolina will also face some tariff heat, though Italy will likely be delighted to fill the market gap.