Tariffs Catch-All

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I recieved two emails today from suppliers explaining their upcoming price increases.

One stated that all products from China would have a temporary 94% surcharge.
I got emails from vendors as well.

One was only going up on Chinese made equipment. That got flipped yesterday--now everything will have a 6.8 percent "maintenance fee". Also found one of the vendors to my company, of which we are the largest supplier of a certain brand of electronics in the USA primarily found in schools, is getting a price increase May 1st, and they'll send us a nice price sheet next week.

Another vendor my office doesn't use often but the other two offices do have a price increase starting May 1st as well.

Good luck everyone. The price increases will slam everyone in the summer bad when it comes to construction.
 

If things get as bad as many think it will, he will likely fold like a cheap suit and he and his supporters will find some way to claim that he "won" the trade war with China, even if in the real world it would be considered an embarrassing backtrack and surrender. I'm sure that Fox and Newsmax and OAN and the other usual suspects will all find some ridiculous ways to spin his defeat into yet another victory for Dear Leader.
 

Elon Musk Warns Rare Earth Magnet Shortage May Delay Tesla’s Robots​

China’s halt this month on exports of magnets containing heavy rare earth metals has affected Tesla’s plans to manufacture Optimus robots.


“… China this month suspended exports to any country of so-called heavy rare earth metals and magnets made from them, as part of its retaliation for President Trump’s increases in tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods. The Chinese government has stopped allowing shipments until it can devise an export license system.

China produces the entire world’s supply of heavy rare earth metals, from ore mined in China and Myanmar, and 90 percent of magnets made with these metals. Japan produces the rest of the magnets, but uses raw materials from China. …”
 

Elon Musk Warns Rare Earth Magnet Shortage May Delay Tesla’s Robots​

China’s halt this month on exports of magnets containing heavy rare earth metals has affected Tesla’s plans to manufacture Optimus robots.


“… China this month suspended exports to any country of so-called heavy rare earth metals and magnets made from them, as part of its retaliation for President Trump’s increases in tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods. The Chinese government has stopped allowing shipments until it can devise an export license system.

China produces the entire world’s supply of heavy rare earth metals, from ore mined in China and Myanmar, and 90 percent of magnets made with these metals. Japan produces the rest of the magnets, but uses raw materials from China. …”
You poor little bitch, you helped make this happen. STFU and accept the result of your stupidity. But as a consolation, you don't have to be concerned about trans women playing sports.
 

Elon Musk Warns Rare Earth Magnet Shortage May Delay Tesla’s Robots​

China’s halt this month on exports of magnets containing heavy rare earth metals has affected Tesla’s plans to manufacture Optimus robots.


“… China this month suspended exports to any country of so-called heavy rare earth metals and magnets made from them, as part of its retaliation for President Trump’s increases in tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods. The Chinese government has stopped allowing shipments until it can devise an export license system.

China produces the entire world’s supply of heavy rare earth metals, from ore mined in China and Myanmar, and 90 percent of magnets made with these metals. Japan produces the rest of the magnets, but uses raw materials from China. …”
“… Cars, factory robots, missiles, smart bombs, stealth fighters and many other products also require rare earth magnets made partly with heavy rare earth metals.

Yang Jie, an export control lawyer at Huiye, a Shanghai law firm, said that China’s regulations call for the Ministry of Commerce to make decisions on export licenses within 45 working days of the announcement, which was on April 4. The ministry is allowed to take longer if it decides that licenses are relevant to national security. …”

——
China has way more experience (and far fewer impediments) than a nascent wannabe dictator like Trump at how to pull authoritarian levers, though Trump is learning quickly.
 
“… Factories are now more automated in China than in the United States, Germany or Japan. China has more factory robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers than any other country except South Korea or Singapore, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

… And as robots replace workers, automation positions China to continue to dominate mass production even as its labor force ages and becomes less willing to take industrial jobs.

… He Liang, founder and chief executive of Yunmu Intelligent Manufacturing, one of China’s top producers of humanoid robots, said China was striving next to turn robotics into an entire new sector of business.


“The expectation for humanoid robots is to create another electric car industry,” he said. “So from this perspective, it is a national strategy.”

Robots are replacing workers not just in car factories but even in China’s many thousands of back-alley workshops.

Elon Li’s curbside workshop in Guangzhou, the commercial hub of southeastern China, has 11 workers who cut and weld metal to make inexpensive ovens and barbecue equipment.

He is now preparing to pay $40,000 to a Chinese company for a robotic arm with a camera. The device uses artificial intelligence to observe how a worker welds the sides of an oven, and then duplicates the action with minimal human intervention. …”
 
“… Factories are now more automated in China than in the United States, Germany or Japan. China has more factory robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers than any other country except South Korea or Singapore, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

… And as robots replace workers, automation positions China to continue to dominate mass production even as its labor force ages and becomes less willing to take industrial jobs.

… He Liang, founder and chief executive of Yunmu Intelligent Manufacturing, one of China’s top producers of humanoid robots, said China was striving next to turn robotics into an entire new sector of business.


“The expectation for humanoid robots is to create another electric car industry,” he said. “So from this perspective, it is a national strategy.”

Robots are replacing workers not just in car factories but even in China’s many thousands of back-alley workshops.

Elon Li’s curbside workshop in Guangzhou, the commercial hub of southeastern China, has 11 workers who cut and weld metal to make inexpensive ovens and barbecue equipment.

He is now preparing to pay $40,000 to a Chinese company for a robotic arm with a camera. The device uses artificial intelligence to observe how a worker welds the sides of an oven, and then duplicates the action with minimal human intervention. …”
The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.” ~Warren Bennis
 

The number of Canadian “snowbirds” planning to sell their second homes in sunny Florida and Arizona has surged this spring, many of them put off by the sudden chill that has blanketed relations between their homeland and the U.S.

Real estate agents say they are seeing more Canadians cashing out, further softening property prices in warm-weather states that have long attracted retirees and tourists from cold and snowy Canada.

Canadians spent close to US$6 billion on U.S. real estate from April 2023 to March 2024 - making up 13 per cent of all foreign transactions - more than any other nationality, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Nearly half of the homes purchased by Canadians were for vacation purposes, with Florida, Arizona and Hawaii ranking as the top markets.

Last week, Tracy and Dale McMullen sold their vacation home in Buckeye, Arizona, a property they owned for five years. The Alberta residents, who usually spend four to five months in Arizona a year, said they are not planning to come back.

“We decided to sell the property after the current POTUS took office,” said Dale, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump, who was inaugurated for the second time in January.

“It was time to leave. We felt we could not trust what he might do next to us as individuals and to our country. We no longer felt welcome nor safe.”

Canadians are feeling stung by the actions and words of the Trump administration, which has imposed steep trade tariffs on its northern neighbor, threatening Canada’s export-dependent economy. Trump’s repeated suggestions that Canada should become a U.S. state, and his derogatory references to now-former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor” have annoyed Canadians and offended their national pride.

As a result, many Canadians are boycotting U.S.-made goods, such as bourbon and produce and canceling trips to U.S. destinations.

Canadian return flights from the U.S. fell 13.5 per cent in March from a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada. Canadian-resident return trips by automobile fell about 32 per cent.

Real estate is now facing a similar pullback in demand.

Laurie Lavine, a realtor in Arizona who helped the McMullens with their sale, told Reuters that he currently has 18 listings from Canadians looking to sell, compared with the usual two to four per quarter.
 
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Concrete actions need to follow the calming assurances — if so, Trump might manage to benefit politically to some extent from the chaos he created. A lot of the same investors rebelling against his trade war and attacks on the Fed love his deregulation and tax cut agenda. There is a lot of unused capital out there that needs an outlet and a ton of suppressed M&A activity (though that will likely remain bottled up pending sufficient interest rate declines to de-risk the IRR of leveraged acquisitions).

The market may also get bursts of enthusiasm (however unwarranted) as term sheets or MOUs for trade “deals” with allies start to roll out. Indian, Vietnam and Japan may be among the first, though Japan seem to be settling in for a more drawn out process — they have quietly but publicly refused to proceed without the U.S. withdrawing misleading trade data (start from an agreed baseline representing actual trade balances, including services and excluding trade neutral domestic policies like VAT) and providing a concrete list of goals/demands as a starting point.
 
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