Tariffs Catch-All

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REITs should be fairly resilient over the course of Trump's term. VNQ is still up YTD. And next year Trump will get to appoint the Fed Chair and there is zero chance that person does anything other than lowering rates - juicing the real estate market in turn.

I would not move all your investments to cash unless you need all of that cash over the next 12-18 months.
 
REITs should be fairly resilient over the course of Trump's term. VNQ is still up YTD. And next year Trump will get to appoint the Fed Chair and there is zero chance that person does anything other than lowering rates - juicing the real estate market in turn.

I would not move all your investments to cash unless you need all of that cash over the next 12-18 months.
About half of my remaining US market exposure is a BlackRock REIT.
 
I’m now down to under 20% pure US market exposure, after selling out of a REIT etf at close, today. I still have modest positions in international income producing and India etfs - otherwise, it’s short term bonds and money market. I’m undoubtedly going to miss some spectacular days, some good weeks, and probably some up months, but there is literally nothing suggesting the US economy will have responsible stewardship, for the duration of Trump. In fact, even if he reverses all this voodoo economic and constantly contradictory bullshit, the destruction to our trade relationships will endure for years.
I’m still waiting for someone in this administration to provide an explanation of how these shifting tariffs are supposed to counter a trade deficit. Our trade deficits are due to domestic spending that exceeds production. There is an insatiable appetite for consumer goods. Tariffs can slow spending but that isn’t a solution without a method to increase competitive production. There doesn’t seem to be any kind of rational plan for this.
 
I’m now down to under 20% pure US market exposure, after selling out of a REIT etf at close, today. I still have modest positions in international income producing and India etfs - otherwise, it’s short term bonds and money market. I’m undoubtedly going to miss some spectacular days, some good weeks, and probably some up months, but there is literally nothing suggesting the US economy will have responsible stewardship, for the duration of Trump. In fact, even if he reverses all this voodoo economic and constantly contradictory bullshit, the destruction to our trade relationships will endure for years.
Yeah, even if we do still have free elections and somehow manage to elect a Democratic POTUS in 2028 (a big assumption at this point) then it will not magically fix the damage Trump has already done to our global relationships. Other nations aren't going to stop treating us like a threat and pariah just because we lucked into electing a Democratic POTUS. We elected Biden and Trump just returned four years later and has already caused even more damage to the global economy than he did in his first term. It is very likely that foreign governments will simply assume going forward that Trumpism is now a dominant factor of American politics and any Democratic POTUS is just a temporary sane interruption between Trumpist administrations and Congresses that will continue to treat them like shit. It may well take decades of sane and competent presidential administrations to fully recover from the damage to our international reputation Trump has caused, which is unlikely to happen as long as Trumpism continues its hold over the GOP.
 
Yeah, even if we do still have free elections and somehow manage to elect a Democratic POTUS in 2028 (a big assumption at this point) then it will not magically fix the damage Trump has already done to our global relationships. Other nations aren't going to stop treating us like a threat and pariah just because we lucked into electing a Democratic POTUS. We elected Biden and Trump just returned four years later and has already caused even more damage to the global economy than he did in his first term. It is very likely that foreign governments will simply assume going forward that Trumpism is now a dominant factor of American politics and any Democratic POTUS is just a temporary sane interruption between Trumpist administrations and Congresses that will continue to treat them like shit. It may well take decades of sane and competent presidential administrations to fully recover from the damage to our international reputation Trump has caused, which is unlikely to happen as long as Trumpism continues its hold over the GOP.
Or hear me out. The American people suffer just enough economically to rid us of the MAGA virus.

I am not rooting for that as I don’t want suffering of any type but it could have that effect.
 
Or hear me out. The American people suffer just enough economically to rid us of the MAGA virus.

I am not rooting for that as I don’t want suffering of any type but it could have that effect.
Trust me, I hope it happens as well. But I do think it's going to be a long while before most other nations trust us or see us as an ally again.
 

The brewery’s chief operating officer, Alaina Webber, says: “For the first time, as a company in operation going on 15 years, we’ve started to get explicit emails that say: ‘On this existing order, you are now going to see a 30%, then to a 130% increase.’”


The brewery is based in Braddock, in the Allegheny valley, in the eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh, where the Scots-born industrialist Andrew Carnegie opened his first steel mill about 150 years ago, founding an industry that underpinned the industrialisation of America.

Today, the vast mill is still in operation, but the tariffs Trump claims will restore the glory of rust-belt towns such as this have inflicted chaos on thousands of firms across the region.

...

At the other end of town, outside the vast Edgar Thomson steel mill, workers gathered in a union social hall are reluctant to chat.

One man says he and his mates are divided about the merits of the long-running takeover battle for the plant’s owner US Steel, by Japan’s Nippon Steel. “That’s a tricky subject,” he says.

But he holds out hope that Trump’s tariffs will bring change to towns like this, where shops are shuttered and many of the clapboard houses have broken windows. “I think they might work, because we have been taking a beating lately,” the steelworker says. “America’s been robbed and abused and I think it’s time that we start taking care of our own, and they start taking care of theirs.”

The international president of the Pittsburgh-based United Steelworkers union, David McCall, has praised Trump’s tariffs, calling them “a crucial means of reining in bad actors who view access to the US market as a right, not a privilege.”

At the nearby headquarters of the Steel Valley Authority, which has been supporting businesses in this region for decades, its veteran executive director Tom Croft is more sceptical.

“What we’re hearing is there’s just a lot of uncertainty. The prices are the big thing, and the supply chain of products,” he says. “Right now, it’s too early to tell, but people are thinking it’s very much like the Covid shutdown.”

He doesn’t object to the idea of targeted tariffs as part of a wider industrial policy, but he says: “The way they’re going about it has made a lot of the smaller manufacturers and managers wonder what the hell they’re going to do.”
 

The Rush to Beat Tariffs Is Distorting the Economy. There’s More to Come.​

Surging U.S. imports, while likely temporary, are frustrating the president’s goal of reducing America’s trade imbalances​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/t...1f?st=rg7uL7&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

IMG_6801.jpeg
“… Now, there is a second leg to the rush. The president’s decision on April 9 to pause so-called reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on every trading partner except China has presented businesses around the world with a new deadline to beat. The stakes are high: Many Asian imports could face tariffs of more than 40% while goods from the European Union are in line for a 20% levy.

Roger Lund has a container full of Christmas decorations from Germany that he needs in Baltimore port by July 8, after which the tariff he pays on the cargo is set to double. …

IMG_6802.jpeg

…”
 

Retail Giants Manage to Keep a Lid on Prices but Warn It Can’t Last​

Prices have largely held steady overall, aside from modest April increases in some categories, a WSJ analysis finds​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/business/retail...38?st=DD7zP1&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… So far, most prices have held steady overall. The average price of some 10,000 everyday household products sold online by Walmart WMT 1.26%increase; green up pointing triangle, Target TGT -0.22%decrease; red down pointing triangleand Amazon AMZN -1.58%decrease; red down pointing triangle is effectively flat since April 2, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data harvested by e-commerce-data firm Traject Data. Prices at the retailers are generally down since January, the data show.

But the chief executives of Walmart, Target and Home Depot HD 0.42%increase; green up pointing triangle met with President Trump last week, with a strong message: The status quo can’t last forever. …

IMG_6803.jpeg
 
“… Now, there is a second leg to the rush. The president’s decision on April 9 to pause so-called reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on every trading partner except China has presented businesses around the world with a new deadline to beat. The stakes are high: Many Asian imports could face tariffs of more than 40% while goods from the European Union are in line for a 20% levy.

Roger Lund has a container full of Christmas decorations from Germany that he needs in Baltimore port by July 8, after which the tariff he pays on the cargo is set to double. …

IMG_6802.jpeg

…”
Really hard to make sense of that graph. The reverse color and choice to show bigger trade deficits as lower on the graph is confusing.

Plus unless I am reading it wrong, it is purporting to show trade deficits but then graphing them as negative numbers which would be a surplus.
 

Spooked By Trade Wars, Trump Officials Hoard Supplies: ‘It Would Be Stupid Not To!’​

Some Trump administration officials are stockpiling toilet paper and food before Trump’s tariffs cause prices to skyrocket
 
So now there will be a shortage of fireworks for 4th of July. Not to mention next year's 250th fireworks are questionable. Interesting, because we know Trump loves military parades and such.
 
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