Tariffs Catch-All

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ChapelHillSooner said:
Really hard to make sense of that graph. The reverse color and choice to show bigger trade deficits as lower on the graph is confusing.

Plus unless I am reading it wrong, it is purporting to show trade deficits but then graphing them as negative numbers which would be a surplus.
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That's how these graphs work. They always depict trade deficits as negative and surpluses as positive. And the shading (i.e. reverse color) is used because it helps cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Think about putting that graph on the same one as a country with a surplus. It really does make sense.

The problem is the label on that graph, which probably was not put there by the folks who made it. The graph should read "monthly trade balance" or "monthly current account balance."
 
mynameisbond said:
Yeah, that's not happening. Trump can't admit when he's wrong or made a mistake. He has to find some way to turn this into a win. Good luck with that.
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As we have seen, all he has to do is announce he made a bunch of new deals and his sycophantic acolytes will believe it and call him the bestest president of all-time.
The economy comes back and the stock market takes off and he takes all the credit.
 
I imported all of the 0dte and 1dte SPY calls into a database and did some queries. Someone bought 1535 contracts (153500 shares) at a strike price of 510 for $1.70/share (total cost $250,950) at 13:05 on 4/9 and netted $5.04 million if they held it to the end of the day.
 
superrific said:
That's how these graphs work. They always depict trade deficits as negative and surpluses as positive. And the shading (i.e. reverse color) is used because it helps cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Think about putting that graph on the same one as a country with a surplus. It really does make sense.

The problem is the label on that graph, which probably was not put there by the folks who made it. The graph should read "monthly trade balance" or "monthly current account balance."
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The label is what I objected to the most.
 
hedge said:
I believe there was a similar trade in the 520's that day...
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Here's an interesting one. Both were made at the same time. One paid $912 and got $406,752 back.

The thing is, the tweet went out at 13:18. Did this person (or persons) see the tweet and immediately buy these? These were the highest multiples among those who ended with more than $100k.


total_cost | size | price | strike_price | timestamp | value_at_expiration | return_multiple
--------------------+-------+-------+--------------+---------------------+---------------------+---------------------
912 | 228 | 0.04 | 525 | 2025-04-09 13:18:56 | 406752.00 | 446
228 | 57 | 0.04 | 525 | 2025-04-09 13:18:56 | 101688.00 | 446

And this guy turned $3 into $10,152.

total_cost | size | price | strike_price | timestamp | value_at_expiration | return_multiple
--------------------+-------+-------+--------------+---------------------+---------------------+---------------------
3 | 3 | 0.01 | 509 | 2025-04-09 13:18:46 | 10152.00 | 3384

Also, this second one kind of answers the question about the first. Note that the 509 strike price was $.01 then 10 seconds later the 525 was $.04 so the prices had already begun to skyrocket.
 
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nycfan said:

Beijing Weighs Fentanyl Offer to U.S. to Start Trade Talks​

Addressing Trump team’s concerns over China’s role in fentanyl crisis could let both sides soften trade stance​



IMG_6819.jpeg
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"allow trade talks to start" is the key there. But they won't get anywhere until Trump figures out what he wants, which of course he won't. So there will be wheel spinning.

Gabbard's decision to **prove** that Covid came from a Chinese lab is surely not at all helping and in fact the extent of the cooperation might be fentanyl/covid.
 
Didn't China say they wouldn't talk unless Trump first removed tariffs? I suspect China is going to pull the rug out from Trump if he doesn't. Let the markets keep thinking that something is going to get done, and then China will bring the hammer down if Trump doesn't first remove tariffs.
 


We’ll see. There was more advance opportunity to plan ahead and build up inventory for the tariffs than there was for COVID disruptions, and experience from COVID supply chain snarls probably informed decisions to build inventory this time. So planning for policy chaos may insulate consumers from that chaos for weeks or months, giving Trump more runway to sort out the policy before it starts to really hurt. Or not.
 
www.nbcnews.com

McDonald's suffers worst U.S. sales decline since 2020, warns of 'anti-American sentiment' abroad

It's the latest restaurant chain to report flagging or declining sales amid a worsening economic environment.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

McDonald's reported its worst quarterly sales for the United States since the height of the pandemic in 2020, the latest restaurant chain to be affected by America's turbulent economic environment.

The burger giant reported U.S. same-store sales fell 3.6%, the largest three-month drop since Q2 2020, when they plunged 8.7%. Forecasts had been for a decline of just 1.7%.


"Consumers today are grappling with uncertainty," McDonald's Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement, as the chain cited lower guest counts.

In a follow-up call with investors, McDonald's executives said that traffic among middle-income diners fell by "nearly double digits" alongside an ongoing drop-off among low-income ones. As an example, they said more people appear to be skipping breakfast entirely to cut back on spending, or eating breakfast at home.

...

On the call, company officials said that while the McDonald's brand hadn't been affected by worsening perceptions of the U.S. by overseas consumers, its internal surveys had picked up a notable uptick in anti-American sentiment, particularly among diners in northern Europe and Canada.

"We have seen ... an increase in people in various markets saying they’re going to be cutting back on purchases of American brands," they said.
 
altmin said:
www.ft.com

Japan says US Treasury holdings could be ‘card’ in trade talks

Finance minister Katsunobu Kato hints that country’s more than $1tn in Treasuries gives it leverage in negotiations
www.ft.com www.ft.com

Japan says US Treasury holdings could be ‘card’ in trade talks
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Trump is going to find out how real negotiations work. It isn't going to be pretty. Pretty much every world leader who has negotiated with Trump has mopped the floor with him. Now that the stakes are higher, it's going to be embarrassing.
 
altmin said:
www.ft.com

Japan says US Treasury holdings could be ‘card’ in trade talks

Finance minister Katsunobu Kato hints that country’s more than $1tn in Treasuries gives it leverage in negotiations
www.ft.com www.ft.com

Japan says US Treasury holdings could be ‘card’ in trade talks
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Based on comments from the Japanese government, they're not playing around with Trump 2.0. I believe one of their officials all but called Trump a moron a few days ago, and now this. And as everyone outside his cult knows, Trump will likely fold like a cheap suit if they play hardball.
 
altmin said:
www.nbcnews.com

McDonald's suffers worst U.S. sales decline since 2020, warns of 'anti-American sentiment' abroad

It's the latest restaurant chain to report flagging or declining sales amid a worsening economic environment.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

McDonald's reported its worst quarterly sales for the United States since the height of the pandemic in 2020, the latest restaurant chain to be affected by America's turbulent economic environment.

The burger giant reported U.S. same-store sales fell 3.6%, the largest three-month drop since Q2 2020, when they plunged 8.7%. Forecasts had been for a decline of just 1.7%.


"Consumers today are grappling with uncertainty," McDonald's Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement, as the chain cited lower guest counts.

In a follow-up call with investors, McDonald's executives said that traffic among middle-income diners fell by "nearly double digits" alongside an ongoing drop-off among low-income ones. As an example, they said more people appear to be skipping breakfast entirely to cut back on spending, or eating breakfast at home.

...

On the call, company officials said that while the McDonald's brand hadn't been affected by worsening perceptions of the U.S. by overseas consumers, its internal surveys had picked up a notable uptick in anti-American sentiment, particularly among diners in northern Europe and Canada.

"We have seen ... an increase in people in various markets saying they’re going to be cutting back on purchases of American brands," they said.
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It's expensive and shitty. Have they considered that?
 

Canada is rapidly reshaping its aviation ties with the US as declining travel demand, rising diplomatic tensions, and shifting consumer preferences drive major airlines—Air Canada, WestJet, Porter, and Flair—to slash routes to key U.S. cities including San Francisco, Miami, New York, and Washington. With a significant drop in both leisure and business travel from Canada to the U.S., carriers are now reallocating capacity toward Europe, where demand remains strong and political conditions are more favorable.

Cross-Border Travel in Decline​

In recent months, both business and leisure travel from Canada to the United States have seen a dramatic downturn. Data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) shows that entries from the northern border fell by 12.5% in February and a further 18% in March, indicating sustained contraction in cross-border movement. This retreat comes amid growing discomfort among Canadian travelers, fueled by strict U.S. border enforcement, electronic device inspections, and political rhetoric painting Canada as “the 51st state.”


Further compounding this decline, Flight Centre Travel Group Canada reported that Canadian business travel to the United States plummeted by 40% in the early months of 2025. Tourism Economics forecasts a 15.2% decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year alone, a downturn echoed by decreased arrivals from key European markets like Germany and Spain—down 30% and 25%, respectively, in March.
 

Jersey Shore rental manager Joy Kostas says properties normally in demand by Canadians who frequent the Wildwoods have experienced a steep decline.

That decline, she said, may be linked to U.S. immigration policies under the Trump administration and concerns over a potential trade war, which have led many Canadians to cancel their travel plans ahead of the 2025 summer season.

“We are seeing a major drop in Canadians booking. I hope that changes, but we’ve had Canadians cancel, we’ve had Canadians ask us if there is some type of problem between the countries and the borders close. ‘Will you refund us if we can’t travel to the vacation destination?’ And of course we would… but some people are worried about it obviously or we wouldn’t get questions about whether or not we would issue those refunds.”

Ben Rose, director of marketing and public relations of the Greater Wildwoods Tourism Authority says Canadians don’t feel welcomed. “We’re getting calls from Canadians saying they feel unwelcomed, disrespected, they do not like the politics and most of them are saying they will see us in four years.”

Rose says the anticipated decline in Canadian visitors may end up being greater than originally projected. “We don’t know what the percentage of Canadians we are not going to get this year, we were projecting a 3-5% loss of Canadian visitors this year, we may think its higher this year. There are now reports from Adam Sacks from tourism economics reporting a 23-24% drop-off in Canadian visitors.”

Rental agents aren’t the only ones down the Shore preparing for a potential dip in Canadian tourism this summer. Hotels and motels are feeling the impact too. That includes the Royal Canadian Motel, where property manager Antonio Cataldo said the decline is driven more by economic factors than political ones. “We have a total of 85 rooms at the royal Canadian, roughly about 55 reservations come from the Canadian market, so far, we got about half, we still have plenty of time for the rest to book.”
 
Andy Beshear discussed how the tariffs are doing the exact opposite of what trump claims, in KY.

He said that investment that was already in progress or being planned has put a hold on movement because of the uncertainty of the tariffs.

He said that Churchill Downs has paused a $900 Million dollar renovation project. Also spoke about how the battery plants in the state are negatively impacted by the trade war.
 
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