Jimmy absolutely has standing under existing precedent to bring suit against any government officials who coerced ABC into kicking him off the air for violation of his first amendment rights
All right, fair enough. I shouldn't put it in terms of standing. Point is, he's not going to be able to prove coercion. Pressure isn't enough for him to win on a First Am theory, I don't think.
To analogize to NRA v Vullo, the NRA is like Kimmel -- the victim of a governmental attempt to enforce certain viewpoints. ABC would be like the banks/financial institutions in the NRA case. ABC can sue when it alleges pressure, just like Harvard. So could the banks sue the state to prevent the selective enforcement. But the NRA has to successfully allege that the banks were in fact influenced by the government's campaign. It was not hard to allege, though, because the state agency wrote it down. It agreed with Lloyd's, in writing, that it would overlook technical violations of law if Lloyd's stopped doing business with gun groups.
So the NRA won that case because they had evidence. But I very much doubt Trump's people put anything in writing. They might not even have spoken about it. Rather, the threat might have been implied. Carr says "this might affect licensing decisions" and Nexstar says, "well, we're fucked in our merger if we don't do this." But Kimmel has to prove that Nexstar was actually so influenced. Maybe they could, but based on what it seems right now, I'm not sure that would really be possible. How do you produce evidence that Nexstar was thinking about its merger prospects when thinking about Jimmy? They aren't going to cop to it, because that would a) basically be admitting to corruption, bribing officials for favorable antitrust treatment; and b) earn the wrath they are trying to avoid.
That's how I see it, anyway. Kimmel would win if Carr sent Nexstar an email saying, "cancel Jimmy or you're going to have trouble at your merger hearing" and Nexstar emailed back, "understood, sir." But absent that sort of thing, I think the burden of proof will be extremely difficult to meet.
I phrased it in terms of standing because the idea is that Kimmel isn't positioned in the best way to sue. The best party to sue would be ABC. All they have to allege is pressure. Kimmel is differently situated. Obviously that's a concept that often sounds in standing (or maybe we should say standing often turns on different situations), but conceptually it's separate and in this case, the language of standing doesn't precisely pair with the actual legal theory.
I'm kind of irritated with myself for writing that, because the casual use of the concept/terminology of standing is something that irritates me about state courts. Not exclusively state courts, and maybe not all state courts, but state courts are, in my experience, more likely to write something like, "a party who comes to the court with unclean hands lacks standing to seek a remedy in equity." That's not really what standing means. And there's no reason to write it like that. Except maybe your brain turns to mush, as mine apparently did this evening, when you turn 50.