The "If Trump wins...." Prediction thread

[BillOfRights]

I doubt Trump will win, but if he does win, I think the Democrats will realize the open border of the Biden/Harris administration is what sunk them. So I think we’d see the Democrats actually take illegal immigration seriously going forward.

I get enough gaslighting from trump. You don't need to try to do it, too.

There is no "open border". fox news and the right-wing echo chamber have spent years telling Americans to be afraid. You and I both know that there was a bipartisan - bipartisan meaning written and supported by Democrats and Republicans, liberals, moderates, and conservatives - bill to address the border. trump told Republicans in Congress to kill it so he could run on the problem. He had 4 years to fix the problem and all he did was tear families apart. Some of these children and parents will never see each other again. He doesn't care about the border, he doesn't care about immigrants, he doesn't care about democracy, he doesn't care about the United States, and he sure as hell doesn't care about you or me.

If you are right that his winning issue is determined to have been immigration, then America will have been proven to be a country of weak-minded cowards and racists who would be right at home in Nazi Germany. The largest democracy in Europe will be handed to Russia, and the land war in Europe will expand. Tariffs and deportation of undocumented workers will increase inflation and reduce growth. Our allies will stop sharing intelligence with the US, the US will abandon NATO, and the US will be isolated. The tech bros (Vance, Theil, Musk, Sacks, Ackman, etc) will push for cryptocurrency to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. So when the world is in chaos and the US economy is in tatters, I hope you can at least enjoy the fact that fox news isn't running stories about Haitian immigrants eating you pets.

 

[BillOfRights]

I view it a little differently. Abortion is the main losing issue for Republicans and the border is the main losing issue for Democrats. Whichever side loses will need to look in the mirror and try to meet the average voter where the voters are on these key issues. I suspect it will end up being Republicans who regret overturning Roe. But if Dems lose, it’ll be due to immigration IMO.

Do you remember the Republican autopsy after Romney lost in 2012? Did Republicans learn anything from that or try to move toward average voters?

 

[HeelYeah2012]

So, like…they might support a bipartisan bill that was a wish-list for Republicans?

Yep, that bill or something similar to it would be a good start towards a compromise. But it’s not hard to understand why some Republicans wanted to make immigration hurt the Dems at the ballot box first. That’s politics.

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

If Trump wins, his tariffs will cause a major recession. He will blame Biden, saying it’s finally the recession he’s been predicting for four years. Trump will terminate support to Ukraine and Ukraine will fall to the Russians either entirely or some much smaller landlocked, resource-less state is the result.

Assuming Trump survives all 4 years in office he will challenge to SCOTUS the two term limit, arguing some combination of it doesn’t count if the terms are non-consecutive, his first term shouldn’t count because of the Mueller probe, and/or it operates like the insurrection clause and only Congress can disqualify him from serving. There’s about a 50/50 chance SCOTUS will buy one of these terrible arguments and Trump ends up on the ballot again in 2028.

 

[ZenMode]

Do you remember the Republican autopsy after Romney lost in 2012? Did Republicans learn anything from that or try to move toward average voters?

I'd say that Republicans have dropped the whole gay marriage thing that was a big deal at the time.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Do you remember the Republican autopsy after Romney lost in 2012? Did Republicans learn anything from that or try to move toward average voters?

After 2012, the party shifted to attract more blue collar and working class folks of all races - look at the gains Trump has made among Hispanics and African Americans compared to Mitt Romney.

This thread is really supposed to be about what will happen if Republicans win, though.

 

[4thgenheel]

I'd say that Republicans have dropped the whole gay marriage thing that was a big deal at the time.

bullshit.

what fucking fantasyland are you living in?

the republican party is feverishly passing anti-lgbtq legislation all over the country at every level of government and obergfell is going to be squarely in the crosshairs of this rogue, regressive supreme court as early as 2025.

 

[uncsig]

I doubt Trump will win, but if he does win, I think the Democrats will realize the open border of the Biden/Harris administration is what sunk them. So I think we’d see the Democrats actually take illegal immigration seriously going forward.

Nope. While it may have ended up being the issue that could cause Trump to win, assuming there aren't 60 Pubs in the Senate, such a bill will never come to the floor and the Pubs will either just STFU about the issue or will be seen as also incapable of solving the problem.

 

[EyeballKid]

Yep, that bill or something similar to it would be a good start towards a compromise. But it’s not hard to understand why some Republicans wanted to make immigration hurt the Dems at the ballot box first. That’s politics.

Thing is, there’d be zero motivation for Ds to support such a bill. Rs showed that they’d rather play politics than solve the issue. To get Ds to sign on to any comprehensive bill going forward, Rs would need to bend to actually compromise, and we’ve seen they won’t do that.

Besides, with Trump in office, he’ll undoubtedly pull some EO’s that will be challenged in court, much like he did the first time around. He won’t wait around for congress to act…and he’ll make the situation far worse.

 

[BillOfRights]

I'd say that Republicans have dropped the whole gay marriage thing that was a big deal at the time.

"Before 2015, whether a same-sex couple could marry varied by state. With its 5-4 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court extended the federal right to marry to same-sex couples. It was a reflection of how much the country’s views of same-sex relationships had already shifted, and would continue to do so in the years that followed. But while the polls have moved one way, the composition of the Court has shifted in the other direction. If Roe could fall after 49 years in a 6-3 ruling in the Dobbs v. Jackson case, there’s no reason to think Obergefell is any safer after less than a decade in action."

Alito and Thomas have both signaled they want to overturn Obergefell, Griswold, and Lawrence. Sen Braun from Indiana recently said interracial marriage should be returned to the states. Do you really believe Opus Dei Catholics on the Leo court have given up on this?

 

[HeelYeah2012]

bullshit.

what fucking fantasyland are you living in?

the republican party is feverishly passing anti-lgbtq legislation all over the country at every level of government and obergfell is going to be squarely in the crosshairs of this rogue, regressive supreme court as early as 2025.

Can’t just rope every LGBTQ issue in together. Republicans are vehemently against biological males playing female sports, but I haven’t heard many mainstream Republicans going after gay marriage recently. I don’t think I know a single conservative in my social circles who is anti gay marriage in 2024. Significant progress since 2012 when a majority of NC was against it when Amendment One was on the ballot.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Thing is, there’d be zero motivation for Ds to support such a bill. Rs showed that they’d rather play politics than solve the issue. To get Ds to sign on to any comprehensive bill going forward, Rs would need to bend to actually compromise, and we’ve seen they won’t do that.

Besides, with Trump in office, he’ll undoubtedly pull some EO’s that will be challenged in court, much like he did the first time around. He won’t wait around for congress to act…and he’ll make the situation far worse.

If the D’s decide they wouldn’t support the bill under POTUS Trump but they were willing to support it just prior to the election to make immigration a non-issue politically in 2024, then they’d shoulder similar blame to whatever the Republicans have to own now, no?

Politicians gonna politic.

 

[EyeballKid]

If the D’s decide they wouldn’t support the bill under POTUS Trump but they were willing to support it just prior to the election to make immigration a non-issue politically in 2024, then they’d shoulder similar blame to whatever the Republicans have to own now, no?

Politicians gonna politic.

Doesn’t seem to have hurt Rs, does it? You certainly don’t seem to give a shit.

 

[Calheel]

After 2012, the party shifted to attract more blue collar and working class folks of all races - look at the gains Trump has made among Hispanics and African Americans compared to Mitt Romney.

This thread is really supposed to be about what will happen if Republicans win, though.

Romney is at white as you can get. And Obama was black. Obviously, 2012 was an outlier.

Look at 2004 for a better comparison of white vs. white.

In 2004, Democrats won 88-11 for blacks and 53-44 for latinos.
In 2020, Democrats won 87-13 for blacks and 65-32 for latinos.

Tell me where you see a material difference for Republicans with either group between 2004 and 2020? The only thing I see is that Biden did better with latinos in 2020.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Doesn’t seem to have hurt Rs, does it? You certainly don’t seem to give a shit.

Correct, I think Republicans have a better shot to win the 2024 election with immigration still being an albatross around Harris’ neck as border czar. So I can see why they did what they did politically.

Also, there clearly was a political motivation for Dems to support that border bill in 2024 just as there was a political motivation for Pubs to block it. The fact you are admitting the Dems wouldn’t support the same bill post-election (if Trump wins) proves my point.

 

[BillOfRights]

After 2012, the party shifted to attract more blue collar and working class folks of all races - look at the gains Trump has made among Hispanics and African Americans compared to Mitt Romney.

This thread is really supposed to be about what will happen if Republicans win, though.

The report emphasized the importance of appealing to African-American, Latino, Asian, women, gay, and young voters, citing changing demographics and the increased skepticism these groups held toward the Republican Party. It urged the party to limit its rhetoric on immigration policy. It also recommended appealing to younger voters by reducing social conservatism in the party.

I don't think that's the trump/MAGA playbook. trump/MAGA is more Nixon's Southern Strategy 2.0.

 

[EyeballKid]

Correct, I think Republicans have a better shot to win the 2024 election with immigration still being an albatross around Harris’ neck as border czar. So I can see why they did what they did politically.

Also, there clearly was a political motivation for Dems to support that border bill in 2024 just as there was a political motivation for Pubs to block it. The fact you are admitting the Dems wouldn’t support the same bill post-election (if Trump wins) proves my point.

Your original position was that a Trump win would force Ds to support stricter immigration policies.

I’m saying that’s bullshit.

Now you’re saying that proves your point.

Pretzel logic.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Romney is at white as you can get. And Obama was black. Obviously, 2012 was an outlier.

Look at 2004 for a better comparison of white vs. white.

In 2004, Democrats won 88-11 for blacks and 53-44 for latinos.
In 2020, Democrats won 87-13 for blacks and 65-32 for latinos.

Tell me where you see a material difference for Republicans with either group between 2004 and 2020? The only thing I see is that Biden did better with latinos in 2020.

What were the numbers in 2012?

Honestly 2004 is going back before I can speak with any type of knowledge so I have no answer to your question. I was 14 years old for the 2004 election. I was eligible to vote in 2008 but even then, wasn’t nearly as engaged as I am now. So I have no clue why so many more Latinos voted Pub in 2004 compared to 2012.

 

[BillOfRights]

Correct, I think Republicans have a better shot to win the 2024 election with immigration still being an albatross around Harris’ neck as border czar. So I can see why they did what they did politically.

Also, there clearly was a political motivation for Dems to support that border bill in 2024 just as there was a political motivation for Pubs to block it. The fact you are admitting the Dems wouldn’t support the same bill post-election (if Trump wins) proves my point.

You know she wasn't the border czar, right?

 

[ZenMode]

bullshit.

what fucking fantasyland are you living in?

the republican party is feverishly passing anti-lgbtq legislation all over the country at every level of government and obergfell is going to be squarely in the crosshairs of this rogue, regressive supreme court as early as 2025.

I haven't heard anything about gay marriage specifically in a very long time. I don't remember the last politician who brought it up. More and more churches are doing same-sex marriage ceremonies. I think it's a losing topic for R's and they know it.