The "If Trump wins...." Prediction thread: D-Day 1/20/25

[Ramrouser]

Electorate agreed with me…so that’s why MAGA controls President, Congress and Supreme Court. But, you have this message board so congrats.

 

[Zoo_View]

Here's the thing about gay marriage from the perspective of a cynical gay man...

There is a huge portion of American society who is "for" gay marriage in the sense that they are fine with it. There is about 1/4 of society really willing to fight for it and about 1/4 of society that would do anything to get rid of it.

The Trump/MAGA/Republicans (including Trump himself) who are "for" gay marriage really are just agnostic about it and don't give a shit. Thats fine and I don't begrudge them that position. The issue is that they also don't give enough of a shit to push back even the slightest when the 1/4 of society (who are closer to 1/2 of their constituency) decode ita time to get rid of it. The Trump lite contingent will pay lip service to support but they won't do anything to stop it. The political calculus for Republicans is clear...they lose zero votes by repeating gay marriage but they stand to lose a LOT of them eventually by not acting on it.

Therefore they will. They absolutely will. They cannot hold together their current constituencies without delivering on some overall pretty unpopular policies. Pushing SCOTUS to nullify Ogberfell is one of those, just like Roe.

I doubt 1/4 of Americans will “fight” for gay marriage.

I also doubt 1/4 of Americans will “fight” for abortion rights.

I do believe 1/5-to-1/4 of Americans will “fight” against gay marriage and abortion rights. I do believe 1/4 of Americans will “fight” against any gun regulations.

By “fight” I mean people who are single issue voters.

Very few Americans are single issue voters in favor of gay marriage.

 

[wmheel1287]

I doubt 1/4 of Americans will “fight” for gay marriage.

I also doubt 1/4 of Americans will “fight” for abortion rights.

I do believe 1/5-to-1/4 of Americans will “fight” against gay marriage and abortion rights. I do believe 1/4 of Americans will “fight” against any gun regulations.

By “fight” I mean people who are single issue voters.

Very few Americans are single issue voters in favor of gay marriage.

Your definition of fight is different than mine. I don't define fight as being a single issue voter. I would fight for gay marriage but it's far from a single issue for me and never would be.

To me, fight means to actively petition legislators, to March, to donate, etc.

 

[Zoo_View]

Your definition of fight is different than mine. I don't define fight as being a single issue voter. I would fight for gay marriage but it's far from a single issue for me and never would be.

To me, fight means to actively petition legislators, to March, to donate, etc.

I agree with much of your post.

My point is that opposition to abortion, LGBTQ rights, and gun control is RABID; support for abortion, LGBTQ rights, and gun control is wrapped up in the overall picture of the candidate.

If your State House candidate is an AOC-type vs. a Thom Tillis-type, for whom are you voting?

The rabids are voting Tillis-type 98-99% of the time…….they’d vote Susan Collins or Mitt Romney before voting “D.” The moderates aren’t voting for AOC-type………and pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control doesn’t matter as much as low taxes and “safety.”

 

[Callatoroy]

Your definition of fight is different than mine. I don't define fight as being a single issue voter. I would fight for gay marriage but it's far from a single issue for me and never would be.

To me, fight means to actively petition legislators, to March, to donate, etc.

I don't think 1/4 of Americans will fight, using your definition, for any single issue.