The "If Trump wins...." Prediction thread

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If the Supreme Court were to overturn Obergefell - and with this Court that's a distinct possibility, and if Trump wins he'll likely get to place even more justices on the Court - how long do you think it would take states like NC to eliminate gay marriage within their borders? This is the state that a little over a decade ago passed an amendment banning gay marriage by a wide margin. That's exactly what happened with Roe, and not only did red states eliminate abortion rights, many of them did so to the most extreme limit possible.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
I think if Trump gets elected, he will have his executive orders, but not much of lasting impact will happen other than replacing some older Supreme Court Justices. Trump doesn't have the temperament to work with Congress. Last time he got a tax cut passed and that's pretty much it. Compare that to Biden who gets his legislation passed, with some compromises, every other week.
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When Trump had a Republican majority in both chambers, there were still some traditional Republicans around to stifle his fuckery. Those folks are largely gone, either by being primaried by MAGA candidates or resignations.
There’s a very good chance that Republicans will again hold a majority in both chambers 3 months from now, but instead of people like Paul Ryan, Mike Gallagher, Liz Cheney, Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, we have people like Lauren Bobert, MTG, Matt Gaetz, Anna Luna, Tommy Tuberville, Markwayne Mullen, Josh Hawley, JD Vance and Ryan Zinke.

Between massive turnover within the GOP congressional caucuses, an ethically flexible majority on SCOTUS and a plan to circumvent the administrative guardrails (Project 2025), there’s very little to stop him from indulging in whatever fuckery he likes.
 
ZenMode said:
Abortion is something that Republicans have never given up on and made it clear. It was consistently brought up. It's been years since gay marriage has been brought up.
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JFC, dude. Thomas brought it up in the very decision that undermined Roe. He was literally inviting Christo-fascists to challenge gay marriage (even gay relationships) and contraception.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Gay marriage was specifically brought up in Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe.
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Yes it was, and I'm not saying that it's impossible that a case regarding gay marriage couldn't be brought to the Supreme Court. I am saying that abortion, for the entirety of Roe versus Wade, was consistently a talking point for Republicans. It also seems pretty clear that Republicans were waiting for a friendly supreme court configuration to bring that case.

Since the Supreme Court ruled on gay marriage, and more importantly since Americans strongly support gay marriage, we haven't heard a word from anyone about it, despite the fact that the same Supreme Court that over turned
Roe v Wade is still intact.
 
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ZenMode said:
Yes it was, and I'm not saying that it's impossible that a case regarding gay marriage couldn't be brought to the Supreme Court. I am saying that abortion, for the entirety of Roe versus Wade, was consistently a talking point for Republicans. It also seems pretty clear that Republicans were waiting for a friendly supreme court configuration to bring that case.

Since the Supreme Court ruled on gay marriage, and more importantly since Americans strongly support gay marriage, we haven't heard a word from anyone about it, despite the fact that the same Supreme Court, that over turned
Roe v Wade, is still intact.
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This suit was filed 3 months ago.

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storage.courtlistener.com
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
And I liked reading here so I could see what the left was saying and make sure I wasn’t ever living in an echo chamber of people on the center-right like me, which is also where most of my friends and family sit on the political spectrum.
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With the increasing number of people putting you on ignore on a daily basis (congrats on that), you'll soon be living in an echo chamber in here b/c you'll only be talking to yourself. I'm sure some won't, including me, but we're mostly masochists who enjoy a little irritation but also enjoy sassing our irritators. Politics may be your hobby, but sass is mine.
That is pretty much the only future possible for you in here, but you clearly seem to enjoy it as well. But as far as substantive discussion, there will be none. Your mind is made up, as are most of your interlocutors'. I don't see that changing on either side, certainly not as a result of ostensible discussion with you about any political issue.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
I like politics as a hobby but I don’t like politics enough to look up exit poll data from 2004 - ha!

Not saying it’s bad for you to do so, but not something I personally seek out. I like this board because it’s efficient and can read a few threads and learn a lot in a short time without having to dedicate my own time to doing research on 20 year old elections.

Sports are my primary hobby and I know a lot more about the history of sports than I do the history of politics. In general, I only stumbled across the ZZLP because of its proximity to UNC sports boards on IC. And I liked reading here so I could see what the left was saying and make sure I wasn’t ever living in an echo chamber of people on the center-right like me, which is also where most of my friends and family sit on the political spectrum.
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I know that self-awareness is not one of your strengths, and that you do not routinely, if ever, pause for reflection, but it needs to be repeated until you start to understand -

You. Are. Not. Center. Anything.

You are not a centrist. You are not a moderate.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Yep, that bill or something similar to it would be a good start towards a compromise. But it’s not hard to understand why some Republicans wanted to make immigration hurt the Dems at the ballot box first. That’s politics.
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It’s pretty funny to acknowledge that the “open border” is largely due to Pubs playing politics then still claim it as a reason to vote against Dems. Honestly it’s easier to understand the people who are too stupid to see through the BS than the people who realize it’s BS but still vote for it anyway.
 
ZenMode said:
It also seems pretty clear that Republicans were waiting for a friendly supreme court configuration to bring that case.
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No, they've been bringing these cases for decades. Here's a list (not sure if exhaustive) of Supreme Court cases. That's to say nothing of the cases that ended in Courts of Appeal or state courts. Why do you talk out of your ass when you don't know shit?

supreme.justia.com

Abortion & Reproductive Rights Supreme Court Cases

Read important U.S. Supreme Court decisions involving Abortion & Reproductive Rights and learn about how the Justices have shaped the law in this area.
supreme.justia.com supreme.justia.com
 
stankeylegjones said:
If Trump wins then we keep fighting for a better US for everyone here. Same as when he doesn’t win.
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In one case, though, that fight is alongside the arrayed force of the federal government, and in the other case, we're having to fight against those institutions.
 
StrangePackage said:
I know that self-awareness is not one of your strengths, and that you do not routinely, if ever, pause for reflection, but it needs to be repeated until you start to understand -

You. Are. Not. Center. Anything.

You are not a centrist. You are not a moderate.
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The number of Republicans I've heard or seen over the years who insist they are moderates or centrists on a variety of issues when they clearly are not, to judge from polls and surveys and actual election results, is impressive. You'd think if your party had lost the national popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections (soon to be 8 out of 9) that it would be a sign that maybe you're not as close to the center as you think you are, but no, they just keep claiming that they are where most Americans are on the issues.
 
ZenMode said:
Posters like you are among the reasons I created the prediction thread. It's not to call people out for inaccurate predictions, it's to bring to light the reality, accurate or exaggerated of the impact of US Presidents.
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1. Your second sentence (actually third, but you used a run-on) makes no sense.
2. I knew what you were trying to do. And I posted what I did with a purpose in mind also. Let's suppose I'm wrong. Let's suppose Trump does nothing of what he says he will do, the term ends uneventfully and everything is back to normal in 2028. What do I have to answer for? A bit of hysteria, possibly.

But let's suppose you're wrong. What are you going to do? Say "whoops"? What will you do when Trump orders a drone strike on a group of protesters? The blood will be on your hands and everyone who voted and/or apologized for Trump. So will you devote your life to public service? Will you roam the Earth like Jules Winfield? Will you give your money away? What will you do to make up for what you have done? Oh, right. Nothing. You will do nothing. You will carry on as always.

3. This illustrates an important difference between you and me. I care about other people, so when I see danger, it makes me want to do something. You do not, so when you see danger, you just point and laugh at the people trying to help. I care to have a good society. I want the world to make progress toward a better society for everyone. You look at the efforts of people like me and pull out popcorn because everything is a fucking joke to you and you think that is your moral superiority.
 
Maybe Leonard Cohen can lend some insight

2017:
When it all comes down to dust
I will kill you if I must,
I will help you if I can.

2025
When it all comes down to dust
I will help you if I must,
I will kill you if I can.
 
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