The "If Trump wins...." Prediction thread

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I’m center-right, not a true centrist. But I’m a lot more centrist than the vast majority here. Most here just blindly vote straight ticket for the Magic D.
False. A majority of posters here are center-right and many are former republicans being forced to vote Dem because of trump. Your unwillingness to do the same puts you way farther to the right. Waaaay farther.
 
I’m center-right, not a true centrist. But I’m a lot more centrist than the vast majority here. Most here just blindly vote straight ticket for the Magic D.
Having read previously that you are likely in your mid 20's, I will respond with more lifetime experience from a retired government an ap us history teacher. Asserting most herein "blindly vote.....", is a rather useless opinion devoid of fact, Instead it borders on being needlessly judgmental and not a good look!

Where one sits on the political spectrum is not in comparison to others, instead it is based on ones' ideological perspective.
 
Nope. While it may have ended up being the issue that could cause Trump to win, assuming there aren't 60 Pubs in the Senate, such a bill will never come to the floor and the Pubs will either just STFU about the issue or will be seen as also incapable of solving the problem.
Nope.

The Democrats will be blamed for opposing clamping down on immigration.

Trump nor the GOP want to solve immigration. They want it as a cudgel to use against Democrats.
 
I’m center-right, not a true centrist. But I’m a lot more centrist than the vast majority here. Most here just blindly vote straight ticket for the Magic D.
“Blindly vote straight ticket”??
Over half of my Republican ballot this year involves
  • Presidential candidate that tried to overthrow democracy
  • Governor candidate that is a self-titled “black nazi”.
  • State superintendent that wants to tear down public schools
  • Local school board candidates that want to destroy/defund public education
  • Local county commissioners that came straight from the Marjorie Taylor Greene school of ethics
And yet because I’m voting straight democratic and you’re willing to vote against a couple of these traitors, that makes you more centrist?
 
Nope.

The Democrats will be blamed for opposing clamping down on immigration.

Trump nor the GOP want to solve immigration. They want it as a cudgel to use against Democrats.
The Remain in Mexico policy, which Mexico agreed to and Biden undid, would have kept nearly all of the heat of the border crisis off of Democrats.

Yes, it is true that the bi-partisan border bill was stopped by Republicans to keep the border an issue for the election, but stopping bills, for political reasons, isn't an entirely uncommon practice.
 
The Remain in Mexico policy, which Mexico agreed to and Biden undid, would have kept nearly all of the heat of the border crisis off of Democrats.

Yes, it is true that the bi-partisan border bill was stopped by Republicans to keep the border an issue for the election, but stopping bills, for political reasons, isn't an entirely uncommon practice.
I know you know this, but (1) Mexico had made it clear it would not allow RIM to continue, (2) RIM only impacted a relatively trivial number of immigrants, and (3) RIM is probably more responsible for the explosion of Mexican gang activity in the US than anything else that has happened since 2018.
 
Had posted this the defunct IC Politics board back in July. Think it holds up pretty well. Did not include the scary point about tariffs (don't think people understand the damning consequences of enacting massive tariffs).

I've actually given this topic a good bit of thought the last two weeks as the probability of another Trump term has increased.

  1. Drastic crackdown on immigration (illegal and legal). We will see a strong deportation push. Not concentration camps but there will be a strong push to ship people out. Unemployment will stay very low; some industries will have a hard time finding labor. Legal immigration will also be reduced; they will take a swing at eliminating citizenship by birth. H1-B visas will be rolled back (same as the first time). You'll see a brain drain of tech talent to Canada, UK and other spots.
  2. Drug cartels make even more money from human trafficking to the US.
  3. Ukraine aid is cutoff immediately. Russia takes the eastern territories of Ukraine. A peace is negotiated that bars Ukraine from joining NATO.
  4. Hostilities in Gaza cease in the first month. Netenyahu praises Trump for his role in bringing peace to situation.
  5. Pretty good likelihood that NATO ceases to exist. Euros replace it with some sort of mutual defense agreement which spurs emphasis of Euro defense industry. Russia places missiles in Venezuela and Nicaragua.
  6. Trade war with China continues and intensifies with tariffs being imposed on more categories. Rhetroric increases, but tension reduces in regards to Taiwan.
  7. No national move on abortion; red states proceed with limiting abortion at state level.
  8. Tax cut for upper quartile which reduces tax revenue. Deficit keeps growing as spending is not cut (similar to first term). Economy will prosper in short term from tax cut stimulus.
  9. Cabinet has fewer moderate republicans (if any). Loyalty will be litmus test. Stephen Miller as chief of staff or Homeland.
  10. Alito and Thomas retire and are replaced with young conservative judges.
  11. Elon Musk will be a close adviser. Space X will get major government benefits.
  12. Trump toys with another term in '28. He will challenge the two term limit claiming that he had the '20 election stolen from him.
 
Trump will Lose.
Trump is the Biggest Loser
- Lost more $ at business than anyone in history of the IRS
- Increased the US debt more than any other POTUS
- Lost at Casinos (who loses as Casinos? lol)
- Lost at Universities
- Lost at Steaks
- Lost at Vodkas
- Lost at Airlines
- Lost at Travel Agency-
Lost at Magazines
- Stole from his own Charity
- Lost at trafficki....errrr Modeling Agency
- Lost at Ties
- Lost at Board Games
- Lost at Mortgage Companies
- Lost elections for Pubs in 2018, 2020, 2022

So Much Losing.
 
Trump will Lose.
Trump is the Biggest Loser
- Lost more $ at business than anyone in history of the IRS
- Increased the US debt more than any other POTUS
- Lost at Casinos (who loses as Casinos? lol)
- Lost at Universities
- Lost at Steaks
- Lost at Vodkas
- Lost at Airlines
- Lost at Travel Agency-
Lost at Magazines
- Stole from his own Charity
- Lost at trafficki....errrr Modeling Agency
- Lost at Ties
- Lost at Board Games
- Lost at Mortgage Companies
- Lost elections for Pubs in 2018, 2020, 2022

So Much Losing.
Don’t forget that he wrecked the USFL.
 
I know you know this, but (1) Mexico had made it clear it would not allow RIM to continue, (2) RIM only impacted a relatively trivial number of immigrants, and (3) RIM is probably more responsible for the explosion of Mexican gang activity in the US than anything else that has happened since 2018.
As I understood it, Mexico rejected re-instating RIM in 2023, which was years after the Biden admin cancelled it.

Going from memory, RIM was causing fairly significant issues in Mexico because Mexico didn't have the resources to house all of the people "Remaining in Mexico" and I believe that was before the eventual flow of migrants that started the crisis at the US border.

IMO, the Biden admin's undoing of Trump's border policies, an undoing of the COVID border restrictions (I forget the exact name) and a general perception that Dems are more migrant-friendly, all contributed to the eventual crisis we had.
 
As I understood it, Mexico rejected re-instating RIM in 2023, which was years after the Biden admin cancelled it.

Going from memory, RIM was causing fairly significant issues in Mexico because Mexico didn't have the resources to house all of the people "Remaining in Mexico" and I believe that was before the eventual flow of migrants that started the crisis at the US border.

IMO, the Biden admin's undoing of Trump's border policies, an undoing of the COVID border restrictions (I forget the exact name) and a general perception that Dems are more migrant-friendly, all contributed to the eventual crisis we had.
General perception is the key phrase. The lies of the Republican Party and the mindsets of the people they prey on is the reason for that. Conflating the drug issues and immigration which really aren't the same at all is much of the rest.
 
As I understood it, Mexico rejected re-instating RIM in 2023, which was years after the Biden admin cancelled it.

Going from memory, RIM was causing fairly significant issues in Mexico because Mexico didn't have the resources to house all of the people "Remaining in Mexico" and I believe that was before the eventual flow of migrants that started the crisis at the US border.

IMO, the Biden admin's undoing of Trump's border policies, an undoing of the COVID border restrictions (I forget the exact name) and a general perception that Dems are more migrant-friendly, all contributed to the eventual crisis we had.
Mexico made it clear late in the Trump administration it would no longer support RIM because of the problems you identified. Covid then caused movement to slow way down for a while so it became irrelevant, but there was no chance Mexico RIM after late 2019.
 
Had posted this the defunct IC Politics board back in July. Think it holds up pretty well. Did not include the scary point about tariffs (don't think people understand the damning consequences of enacting massive tariffs).

I've actually given this topic a good bit of thought the last two weeks as the probability of another Trump term has increased.

  1. Drastic crackdown on immigration (illegal and legal). We will see a strong deportation push. Not concentration camps but there will be a strong push to ship people out. Unemployment will stay very low; some industries will have a hard time finding labor. Legal immigration will also be reduced; they will take a swing at eliminating citizenship by birth. H1-B visas will be rolled back (same as the first time). You'll see a brain drain of tech talent to Canada, UK and other spots.
  2. Drug cartels make even more money from human trafficking to the US.
  3. Ukraine aid is cutoff immediately. Russia takes the eastern territories of Ukraine. A peace is negotiated that bars Ukraine from joining NATO.
  4. Hostilities in Gaza cease in the first month. Netenyahu praises Trump for his role in bringing peace to situation.
  5. Pretty good likelihood that NATO ceases to exist. Euros replace it with some sort of mutual defense agreement which spurs emphasis of Euro defense industry. Russia places missiles in Venezuela and Nicaragua.
  6. Trade war with China continues and intensifies with tariffs being imposed on more categories. Rhetroric increases, but tension reduces in regards to Taiwan.
  7. No national move on abortion; red states proceed with limiting abortion at state level.
  8. Tax cut for upper quartile which reduces tax revenue. Deficit keeps growing as spending is not cut (similar to first term). Economy will prosper in short term from tax cut stimulus.
  9. Cabinet has fewer moderate republicans (if any). Loyalty will be litmus test. Stephen Miller as chief of staff or Homeland.
  10. Alito and Thomas retire and are replaced with young conservative judges.
  11. Elon Musk will be a close adviser. Space X will get major government benefits.
  12. Trump toys with another term in '28. He will challenge the two term limit claiming that he had the '20 election stolen from him.
I could see all of this, but #12 is a definite. He’ll do everything he can to stay in power as long as he is still alive…he’ll never leave willingly if he regains the presidency.

I’d also throw in a major assault on LGBTQ rights…it’s red meat for his base.
 
I could see all of this, but #12 is a definite. He’ll do everything he can to stay in power as long as he is still alive…he’ll never leave willingly if he regains the presidency.

I’d also throw in a major assault on LGBTQ rights…it’s red meat for his base.
Not sure he'll bother anymore with his base after winning reelection. He'll be busy putting large parts of our money in safe keeping with friends and family.

I guess he might throw them a crust if he can get it from somebody else's piece of the pie.
 
Not sure he'll bother anymore with his base after winning reelection. He'll be busy putting large parts of our money in safe keeping with friends and family.

I guess he might throw them a crust if he can get it from somebody else's piece of the pie.
Once he gives himself a blanket pardon, his work is mostly done.
 
Mexico made it clear late in the Trump administration it would no longer support RIM because of the problems you identified. Covid then caused movement to slow way down for a while so it became irrelevant, but there was no chance Mexico RIM after late 2019.
I've never heard that and can't find anything, except for re-instating in 2023, after a quick online search. Where did you hear/read that?
 
The Remain in Mexico policy, which Mexico agreed to and Biden undid, would have kept nearly all of the heat of the border crisis off of Democrats.

Yes, it is true that the bi-partisan border bill was stopped by Republicans to keep the border an issue for the election, but stopping bills, for political reasons, isn't an entirely uncommon practice.
This has been explained to you many times. That you still seem to cling to this nonsense raises that question again about the intelligence of Trump supporters. One more time I will explain. I'll even give you citations.

1. What you're talking about was actually two different programs. The first was Remain in Mexico, promulgated in 2019. The second was the restriction popularly known as Title 42, as it was promulgated by the CDC pursuant to the statutes in the federal code giving it emergency powers under a national health emergency.

2. Remain in Mexico is illegal. Only one appeals court has addressed the matter -- the 9th Circuit court of appeals. It found that the program violated US statutory law (which is clearly does). It declared the policy illegal and also entered an injunction. The Supreme Court stayed the injunction but otherwise did not comment. The only way Remain in Mexico could be implemented now would be to defy a judgment by a federal appeals court. God damn that Biden for following the law! Anyway, people stopped talking about it because Trump got what he wanted with Title 42.

Citation: Here is the 9th Circuit's order:

3. As for Title 42, Biden kept it in place well into 2022, when it became clear that the policy had grave problems. Then rogue federal courts enjoined him from lifting it, because reasons. But anyway, it could haven't survived after the pandemic emergency ended, because the CDC was rule based on the pandemic. Once Biden declared the pandemic to be over (as it clearly is), the authorization for Title 42 disappeared. Title 42 cannot be resumed, because there is no public health emergency.


4. Mexico made it clear that they weren't going to renew their cooperation -- but that's not the main problem. The main problem is that it is illegal under federal law. That was what the bipartisan bill that Trump tanked was going to address.

This has now been explained to you as clearly as possible. Citations have been provided, including a citation to the most authoritative source about the 9th Circuit's ruling -- namely, a link to that ruling itself. If you continue to persist with your nonsense about it, the only possible conclusions are a) you are not sufficiently intelligent to comprehend; or b) you are engaging in bad faith without any interest in learning what you don't know. Either way, it should cause you to reexamine some things.
 
Had posted this the defunct IC Politics board back in July. Think it holds up pretty well. Did not include the scary point about tariffs (don't think people understand the damning consequences of enacting massive tariffs).

I've actually given this topic a good bit of thought the last two weeks as the probability of another Trump term has increased.

  1. Drastic crackdown on immigration (illegal and legal). We will see a strong deportation push. Not concentration camps but there will be a strong push to ship people out. Unemployment will stay very low; some industries will have a hard time finding labor. Legal immigration will also be reduced; they will take a swing at eliminating citizenship by birth. H1-B visas will be rolled back (same as the first time). You'll see a brain drain of tech talent to Canada, UK and other spots.
  2. Drug cartels make even more money from human trafficking to the US.
  3. Ukraine aid is cutoff immediately. Russia takes the eastern territories of Ukraine. A peace is negotiated that bars Ukraine from joining NATO.
  4. Hostilities in Gaza cease in the first month. Netenyahu praises Trump for his role in bringing peace to situation.
  5. Pretty good likelihood that NATO ceases to exist. Euros replace it with some sort of mutual defense agreement which spurs emphasis of Euro defense industry. Russia places missiles in Venezuela and Nicaragua.
  6. Trade war with China continues and intensifies with tariffs being imposed on more categories. Rhetroric increases, but tension reduces in regards to Taiwan.
  7. No national move on abortion; red states proceed with limiting abortion at state level.
  8. Tax cut for upper quartile which reduces tax revenue. Deficit keeps growing as spending is not cut (similar to first term). Economy will prosper in short term from tax cut stimulus.
  9. Cabinet has fewer moderate republicans (if any). Loyalty will be litmus test. Stephen Miller as chief of staff or Homeland.
  10. Alito and Thomas retire and are replaced with young conservative judges.
  11. Elon Musk will be a close adviser. Space X will get major government benefits.
  12. Trump toys with another term in '28. He will challenge the two term limit claiming that he had the '20 election stolen from him.
These are interesting thoughts. I disagree with #4. I mean, it depends on what you mean by "hostilities" but there is not going to be peace just because Trump comes into office. Netanyahu has to keep the war going or he will go to jail.

I also disagree with #7. If the Pubs have a majority in the House or Senate, they absolutely will attempt an abortion ban. It will be filibustered in the Senate either way, and I do not think that the Pubs will break the filibuster over it. Maybe later in the term. Not right away.

Elon Musk isn't going to be a close advisor. He will get his graft money from federal contracts and he'll go back to doing whatever he does.

Trump would be toying with another term in 28 if he is still alive and healthy, but given his state of health now, it seems unlikely.
 
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