The Weather Thread | Time to hide your nuts

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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SnoopRob said:
They’re not useless, they’re just not terribly precise at that distance.

What you can probably take from them a week out is a warning not to make critical plans if the weather is projected to be bad, but recognize that the forecast will change, as well.
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My problem is that they often present information in a way that implies some level of precision.

If you're going to say 1-3", that range itself should incorporate the variability - within one standard deviation or so. If that means your forecast looking a week out has to say you are expecting 0-20" then so be it. Don't pretend to have knowledge that you don't have.

I used to complain about this to my meteorologist brother. He explained that in the NWS (at least in their standard communication releases) they were pretty rigid and couldn't do statistical probability type forecasting.
 
Latest Raleigh forecast discussion
Tuesday afternoon another weather system is expected to move into
the region. While models are still inconsistent with the track of
the parent low that would fuel the precip and p-type, ensembles have
shown there might be enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce
some measurable snow Tuesday afternoon and overnight
 
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