You gave me examples of GOP Pub senators running in difficult environments. One was from 2012 but that wasn't really a difficult environment. One was 2002, which was a positive election for the GOP because they demagogued Iraq. And the final one was from 1990, which is irrelevant. In 1990, California was a red-leaning purple state.
Tillis won by 2 points, IIRC, in 2020. So for Lara Trump to lose by 8, there would have to be a 10 point reversal. I suspect the national environment will be 7-8 points worse, and Lara Trump will be a terrible candidate who will run 2 to 3 points behind Tillis.