Tracking DJT stock

NYCBlueBlood said:
The man destroys everything he gets his grubby little hands on... don't know why anybody would ever invest in his stock. He has bankrupted 3 different casinos... plus two different holding companies over his casinos after he bankrupted each one individually.
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I mean, DJT is a meme stock -- essentially all its value is tied to fans of Trump rather than any performance metric of the actual company. Even if the stock value drops to $1/share, it is still worth more than the underlying company, and even at the current share price is irrational. So, in that sense, his ability to get his fans to provide billions of paper net worth (and potentially millions in cash if he pulls the plug and dumps his shares -- it would kill/devalue the stock and bankrupt the company, but just given the share prices and his huge hold of shares, he could potentially siphon off tens or hundreds of millions in cash on the way out the door and dare the SEC to try to make a pump and dump or other securities law case against him). I don't think he would do that before the election for political reasons, but if he loses the election he might do it out of spite. Of course, if he wins, or even if he loses but still seems to have political king-maker power, he could probably arrange for some sort of go-private transaction from investors with interest in access to his power.
 
You'd think puts on this thing would've been massively profitable (and by usual standards they have been very nicely profitable), but they've been so juiced up front that the upside has been relatively limited. For example, DJT closed at 31.45 on 7/26 and the Sep 20 puts expiring this Friday closed that day at 1.94. I don't know if that's fair value for a $10+ out of the money put with less than 2 months to go until expiration, but on 8/20, DJT closed at 21.42, off $10 from 7/26 and those same puts closed that day at... 2.53. I mean, yeah, that's a 30% gain in less than a month, not bad, but with still a month to go until expiration and the underlying down 30+% in less than a month you'd think they'd be worth a lot more than that. And it's not like there's been much volume in the options, so it can't be volatility. Currently the stock is trading 15.80 and last trade on those puts was 4.47, which would be about a 130% profit, but generally a 50% decline in an underlying stock would yield a far higher profit than that on the puts. Just like everything to do with Trump, it seems more than a little shady...
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
The man destroys everything he gets his grubby little hands on... don't know why anybody would ever invest in his stock.
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I think it's largely safe to say that everyone who has invested in DJT since it became publicly available has largely done so as a way to support Trump. Some of that is probably folks intentionally funneling money to him and some his political supporters treating it like a meme stock, but I doubt anyone has bought DJT thinking they're making a good stock investment.
 
Actually with two days until expiration, those puts shouldn't be worth much (if any) more than that, but they "shouldn't" have been priced at 1.94 on 7/26. Now if you'd paid 19 cents for them on 7/26 and they're worth 4.47 today, that's a nice profit...
 
nycfan said:
I mean, DJT is a meme stock -- essentially all its value is tied to fans of Trump rather than any performance metric of the actual company. Even if the stock value drops to $1/share, it is still worth more than the underlying company, and even at the current share price is irrational. So, in that sense, his ability to get his fans to provide billions of paper net worth (and potentially millions in cash if he pulls the plug and dumps his shares -- it would kill/devalue the stock and bankrupt the company, but just given the share prices and his huge hold of shares, he could potentially siphon off tens or hundreds of millions in cash on the way out the door and dare the SEC to try to make a pump and dump or other securities law case against him). I don't think he would do that before the election for political reasons, but if he loses the election he might do it out of spite. Of course, if he wins, or even if he loses but still seems to have political king-maker power, he could probably arrange for some sort of go-private transaction from investors with interest in access to his power.
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No doubt. His stock "value" is 100% based off of conning the poor masses... and convincing the wealthy/ powerful that it's smart to have a hedge towards his good graces if he somehow manages to win again.
 
hedge said:
You'd think puts on this thing would've been massively profitable (and by usual standards they have been very nicely profitable), but they've been so juiced up front that the upside has been relatively limited. For example, DJT closed at 31.45 on 7/26 and the Sep 20 puts expiring this Friday closed that day at 1.94. I don't know if that's fair value for a $10+ out of the money put with less than 2 months to go until expiration, but on 8/20, DJT closed at 21.42, off $10 from 7/26 and those same puts closed that day at... 2.53. I mean, yeah, that's a 30% gain in less than a month, not bad, but with still a month to go until expiration and the underlying down 30+% in less than a month you'd think they'd be worth a lot more than that. And it's not like there's been much volume in the options, so it can't be volatility. Currently the stock is trading 15.80 and last trade on those puts was 4.47, which would be about a 130% profit, but generally a 50% decline in an underlying stock would yield a far higher profit than that on the puts. Just like everything to do with Trump, it seems more than a little shady...
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I read a blog post (so, you know, some grains of salt) that made the argument that the reason there isn't a lot of action on DJT (of any kind) is that since the stock price is so completely irrational based on the fundamentals of the company that pretty much the only reasonable action is to stay completely away from it and so most folks are.

While it seems entirely predictable that the shares will continue to fall (and they have), the stock price could go up based on nothing more than some event causing folks to buy DJT simply to make the price look good or to give a positive outcome to Trump for political purposes. And because the only reasons for buying this stock are irrational (from an investment perspective), it's also irrational to treat it like a normal stock for any investment purpose because there are no fundamentals you can look at to forecast what will happen to its price.
 
SnoopRob said:
I think it's largely safe to say that everyone who has invested in DJT since it became publicly available has largely done so as a way to support Trump. Some of that is probably folks intentionally funneling money to him and some his political supporters treating it like a meme stock, but I doubt anyone has bought DJT thinking they're making a good stock investment.
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There have been stories of people who have put their entire retirement accounts into DJT.

I remember someone posted a link about a guy from Oklahoma who did that. He had lost maybe 60% of it then DJT rebounded to almost where he bought it (after the article came out). I wondered if he managed to get out but I doubt it.
 
ChileG said:
WTF didn’t I short this stock when I had the chance.
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I wanted to buy put options despite the high cost of doing so but didn't have to cash to do it. I was going to possibly put part of an IRA in it but that IRA is in fidelity and they won't approve my request to trade options. (They want me to show a history of trading options which is a bit of a catch-22.)

Might have saved me a bit of money as the rebound a few months ago might have made the options worthless depending on what date I chose for option expiration.
 
If I understand it correctly, Trump will be able to begin selling DJT stock tomorrow unless the stock falls below $12 (which is unlikely). If it did fall he would be able to sell it next week.
 
ChileG said:
I admit I don’t know much about it, but hasn’t this stock dropped from $75 to $15?
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Yes in hindsight it would have been a good investment to short, but that same logic was applied to Gamestop by some of the most sophisticated investors in the market and they lost their shirts. I'm just pointing out that when large groups of people believe it's in their best interest to invest in a stock for reasons other than financial performance, you are taking a big risk by shorting that. Ultimately it will go down but in the meantime you can get hurt badly.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
There have been stories of people who have put their entire retirement accounts into DJT.

I remember someone posted a link about a guy from Oklahoma who did that. He had lost maybe 60% of it then DJT rebounded to almost where he bought it (after the article came out). I wondered if he managed to get out but I doubt it.
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I remember those stories and that article.

I think the kindest thing to say about those folks is that they aren't savvy investors and that their decision to put money - even their entire retirement accounts/life savings - into DJT doesn't actually represent an actual "investment strategy".
 
As of right now his stock is worth around 2 Billion dollars--and I believe he put in Zero of his own money
So I give him an A+
Grifters gonna grift
 
Enigma94 said:
Yes in hindsight it would have been a good investment to short, but that same logic was applied to Gamestop by some of the most sophisticated investors in the market and they lost their shirts. I'm just pointing out that when large groups of people believe it's in their best interest to invest in a stock for reasons other than financial performance, you are taking a big risk by shorting that. Ultimately it will go down but in the meantime you can get hurt badly.
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Gotcha
 
Enigma94 said:
Yes in hindsight it would have been a good investment to short, but that same logic was applied to Gamestop by some of the most sophisticated investors in the market and they lost their shirts. I'm just pointing out that when large groups of people believe it's in their best interest to invest in a stock for reasons other than financial performance, you are taking a big risk by shorting that. Ultimately it will go down but in the meantime you can get hurt badly.
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Enigma94 said:
Yes in hindsight it would have been a good investment to short, but that same logic was applied to Gamestop by some of the most sophisticated investors in the market and they lost their shirts. I'm just pointing out that when large groups of people believe it's in their best interest to invest in a stock for reasons other than financial performance, you are taking a big risk by shorting that. Ultimately it will go down but in the meantime you can get hurt badly.
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But you couldn't really short it anyway. You'd have to find shares to borrow. Get in line behind everyone else who wants to short it.

I think the put options for DJT were, at one point, trading at close to the stock price, meaning that the market was valuing it at like $2 a share or something like that. And that's generous.
 
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