Yes on one hand, but on the other:
Rocket launches are an integral part of our 21st-Century world. But how do we stop their polluting exhausts accelerating climate change?
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Marais and a team of researchers from University College London (UCL), the University of Cambridge and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) used a 3D model to explore the impact on the atmosphere of rocket launches and re-entry in 2019, and the future impact of space tourism promoted by companies like Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin.
Marais's team
found that black carbon emissions will more than double after just an additional three years of space tourism launches, and that particles emitted by rockets are almost 500 times more efficient at holding heat in the atmosphere than all other sources of soot combined, resulting in an enhanced warming climate effect. While current loss of ozone due to space launches is small, the impact of space tourism launches may undermine the recovery in the ozone layer experienced after the success of the
1987 Montreal Protocol which banned substances that deplete the Earth's ozone layer.
Maloney and his team calculated that each year rocket launches that use RP-1 collectively expel around 1 gigagram, or 1,000 metric tons, of black carbon into the stratosphere. Thanks to the growing number of rockets launched, this could reach 10 gigagrams a year in a couple of decades, along with a temperature rise in parts of the stratosphere of as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius, and a thinning of the ozone layer. If the amount of black carbon expelled into the atmosphere reach 30 gigagrams a year, or even 100, then there will be some cooling of the surface of the planet under this black carbon umbrella.
For their research paper, Ioannis Kokkinakis and Dimitris Drikakis, scientists at the University of Nicosia in Cyprus, used real rocket launch data from a Space X Falcon 9 rocket in 2016 to create the "first high-resolution and high-order computational model" of its kind to analyse in detail the impact of rocket emissions on the climate. This Space X launch was chosen because useful webcam footage of the exhaust gases was available. One of the "biggest surprises" they found is that in the first stage of the rocket launch around 116 tons of CO2 was emitted in 165 seconds. "That is quite significant," says Drikakis. "Yes, we don't know the actual impact on the atmosphere because atmospheric chemistry is a very complicated matter, but when you have the cumulative effect of more launches, it is going to get interesting."