Trump / Musk (other than DOGE)

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I will be among the many who is sticking it out through the election and then will finally rid myself of Twitter. I have seen this sentiment all over the place.

I guess Bluesky is where I will head next. But I will probably just take a break and read traditional new sources. Or check here šŸ˜Ž
I'm enjoying Bluesky. It's mere methadone for the Twitter high, but they have a bunch of good starter packs to jumpstart your experience. In time, it has real potential.
 
I think what we fail to see with Trump when we focus on his insane policy ideas, is that he's not selling policy.

He's selling his BRAND. Brand's are the key to marketing most anything including elections.

His Brand seems to be: "I'm on your side and the Dem's sure as hell are not. They are bad."
Remember Hillary.........how bad he turned her into?

This tariff thing seems to dovetail his Brand. He's like a shade tree mechanic promising he can get your car running in a few hours if you only believe. Never mind he didn't even raise the hood to check out what was really wrong. He's not trying to sell his brand to everyone. Just to those who believe the Dems are bad.
There's a lot of truth here. I guess one might quibble with the causality, though. Is Trump making a choice to sell brand instead of policy? Or is he just incapable of talking about policy?

I see tariffs as integral to Trump's brand in two ways. First, his whole spiel about how foreigners are going to continue to do business in this country even though they will be taxed like never before is basically "Mexico will pay" redux. I don't think people fully appreciate how integral the "Mexico will pay" part was to the campaign. Trump, after all, was not the first person to run on a border wall. To MAGA, the border wall was never really about immigration; it was about humiliation. It was the fantasy that white Americans could make brown people pay for their own exclusion. Yeah, sure. So now it's foreign companies that are going to be paying us for the privilege of doing business here.

Second, tariffs are an incredibly grifting opportunity because so much is at the president's discretion. So of course Trump is drawn to it.
 
1. The first answer involves comparative advantage, a concept in freshman econ that is always underrated because it doesn't come with graphs. But comparative advantage says that countries will end doing what they are good at relative to other countries. It isn't the same as absolute advantage, and that's a confusion that protectionists try to exploit.

I'll give you the textbook example in a minute, but first I'd like to point out that comparative advantage is an extremely common, intuitive and familiar idea that never causes anyone problems until they start to think about different nationalities of people. For instance, why is corn produced in Iowa and citrus in Florida? It's not because you can't grow corn in Florida (I suspect that most things, including corn, grow better in Florida). It's because you can also grow citrus, and given the choice, why wouldn't you? Why do we grow winter wheat in cold climates? I don't think it's because wheat grows better there; rather, it's because nothing else grows in winter in Canada or the Dakotas and thus the planting of wheat is almost cost-less. It's why cities are located on rivers or waterways and farms are inland. Nothing about this is the slighest bit hard to grasp. It's only when we put nationality in the mix that people lose their minds.

Anyway, now to the classic story of international trade in a two-good economy -- call them Widgets and Things. In Country A, a Widget costs 5 labor hours to produce, and a Thing costs 1 labor hour to produce. In Country B, a Widget costs 6 labor hours to produce, and a Thing costs 2 labor hours. Country A is a better producer of both goods. But with trade, it will stop making Widgets and focus entirely on Things, whereas B will make only Widgets (let's assume that the world market for Widgets and Things is extremely large, so the countries don't ever reach any sort of capacity limits). It has a 17% cost advantage in Widgets and a 100% cost advantage in Things.

Or to put it differently, suppose there is a Widget maker in country A. He wants to build a widget factory and looks for capital. The investors tell him, "if I give you $100M, you'll have a plant that can produce 1 million widgets per year. But if I give your buddy here the $100M, he'll build a plant that will make 5M Things per year. He can trade 4M of those Things to Country B for 1M widgets, and still have 1M Things left over. What are you going to do about that?" The answer is: build a Thing factory.

So Country A will still be richer, because it is more productive. But it will be richer by building Things and trading for the Widgets it needs, than by producing Widgets.

2. This is obviously an incredibly simple model but it has some explanatory power. Let's look at, say, textiles and automobiles circa 1990. The U.S. was better than Bangladesh at both, and indeed productivity is generally higher here than there across the board. But Bangladesh makes clothes almost as well as the U.S, whereas it doesn't make autos at all. It has a comparative advantage in textiles. So the textile industry locates to Bangladesh, freeing up workers in the Carolinas to work at a BMW plant. The result is that we become richer. We make and sell autos to Bangladesh, and with those proceeds we can buy all the textiles we want and still have money left over.

Note that this geography of production forms the basis for the wage scale. Bangladesh makes tons of textiles, but textiles are low productivity, low-margin goods. You can trade 1 hour of auto production work for 10 hours of textile work (let's say), which means that American auto workers are going to make 10x the wage as Bangladeshis. This is a great deal for America.

3. So now suppose you want to start a textile mill in NC. As you say, the cost of labor in Bangladesh is so cheap that Americans can't compete. You try to find funding for your mill, you can't get it, and you find a new business to start. THIS IS GOOD! It means wages are high here. Then you try to get money for an auto factory, but nobody will give that to you either because there's not enough autoworking labor to support another car plant. For the country, THIS IS GOOD! So finally, you decide to build an advanced titanium alloy manufacturing plant. You can only get 500 workers, but that's all you need -- you can charge a lot of $$ for your extremely useful, advanced alloys and so you don't need tons and tons of metal rolling off your lines to make good money.

In short: you couldn't find anyone to finance your textile mill. You had to settle for advanced titanium alloys. This is a great result for the United States. We will become much richer by producing alloys and buying textiles than we ever were producing textiles.

4. So in answer to your question, we don't want "competitive balance" in the way you suggest. We don't need American companies to manufacture textiles. We don't want them to, at least not when the choice is making alloys or cars or artificial intelligence. As long as we can trade freely with other countries, they can make our clothes. We'll make operating systems and we will be able to trade those operating systems for all the textiles we need and have lots of money left over for other stuff, like Greek feta or Pakistani shrimp.

5. This is a basic answer. It's basically freshman econ, and it's useful as a simple model. Reality is more complex. I'm not one of those assholes who takes a freshman course and figure that I know everything I need.

One important complication that has taken on special significance in the post-industrial economy is the role of scarce biological traits. In my story, we could become endlessly prosperous by scrapping our low-margin industries and focus entirely on computer technology. In reality, though, not everyone in the US is capable of being a computer designer. Some people just aren't smart enough to do that. So if we have some people who, by dint of genetics, education or other factors, are natural factory workers, and the factories have moved overseas, what are they supposed to do? Or to put it more accurately, if people are natural factory workers, and factories are only viable here when wages are low, aren't those factory workers going to struggle? They are now in competition with workers all over the globe.

My answer to this is: this is one of the central questions of progressive economic policy. In my view, it's become the most important economic policy question of all, in light of what is coming with AI. How can we secure the benefits of trade while providing a decent life (not an impoverished one) to the people in our country whose talents are not so remunerative? There are lots of answers, and we can't go into them here. Feel free to start another thread, if you'd like.

What I can say is that tariffs are not a solution to this problem (obviously, as I've framed it). They are an admission of failure. They are a policy of despair, in which we just accept a bad outcome for lack of effort or imagination in solving the problem presented to us.


Yes, this is really what I was asking about:
One important complication that has taken on special significance in the post-industrial economy is the role of scarce biological traits. In my story, we could become endlessly prosperous by scrapping our low-margin industries and focus entirely on computer technology. In reality, though, not everyone in the US is capable of being a computer designer. Some people just aren't smart enough to do that. So if we have some people who, by dint of genetics, education or other factors, are natural factory workers, and the factories have moved overseas, what are they supposed to do? Or to put it more accurately, if people are natural factory workers, and factories are only viable here when wages are low, aren't those factory workers going to struggle? They are now in competition with workers all over the globe.

And then add in this: Reality is more complex.

We all know that China isn't playing the game equally to the US, so that impacts how things work.

But yes, I knew that we don't want to bring back low margin t-shirt manufacturing, just to create low paying jobs.

Maybe I'll start another thread, I do find this interesting, and I only took one economics class in college, that I recall. I did make an "A", but that was 30 years ago and the memory isn't what it once was, especially considering my work really requires little economic knowledge other than showing ROI for the projects I'm begging for money to fund. :cool:
 
But yes, I knew that we don't want to bring back low margin t-shirt manufacturing, just to create low paying jobs.
Please remember that I was a professor. I'm used to answering questions for the benefit of the whole class, so to speak. So too here. Just because I explain something, it doesn't mean that I think you don't know it.
 
40 days until the election … and Xmas is right around the corner!!!

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The gold watch is the "Tourbillon"

"The ā€œTrump Victory Tourbillonā€ watch is for sale for the low price of $100,000 and is available in gold or rose gold. It features ā€œclassic sophistication combined with President Trump’s symbol of success: Gold.ā€ The caseback features a personalized thank-you message from Trump himself."
 
NFT trading cards, Cryptocurrency, Silver Coins, Watches. Trump is really flooding the market the last couple weeks.

I’d like to see a Trump Stairlift to round out the collection.
 
GQ: ā€œHi everyone, it’s your favorite president, Donald J. Trump.ā€

ā€œSo begins Trump’s video introduction—nearly indistinguishable from a Saturday Night Live sketch—to his latest venture: A new collection of watches, including a $100,000 model with a tourbillon (a mechanism that continuously spins the watch’s movement).ā€

Says Trump, during the video: ā€œThat’s a lot of diamonds. I love gold, I love diamonds.ā€

 
NFT trading cards, Cryptocurrency, Silver Coins, Watches. Trump is really flooding the market the last couple weeks.

I’d like to see a Trump Stairlift to round out the collection.
How about trump baseball cards? He never played baseball, but the truth has never been a problem for that piece of shit.
 
How about trump baseball cards? He never played baseball, but the truth has never been a problem for that piece of shit.
Au contraire, mon frere, Trump played baseball in HS and has long claimed he could have been a pro player.


ā€œā€¦ ā€œI was supposed to be a pro baseball player,ā€ Donald Trump wrote in 2004. ā€œAt the New York Military Academy, I was captain of the baseball team. I worked hard like everyone else, but I had good talent.ā€

… ā€œI will never forget […] the first time I saw my name in the newspaper,ā€ he continued. ā€œIt was when I got the winning home run in a game between our academy and Cornwall High School. It was in 1964 and it was in a little local paper. It simply said, TRUMP HOMERS TO WIN THE GAME. I just loved it and I will never forget it. It was better than actually hitting the home run.ā€

…
Trump, who played first base, wrote that ā€œbeing a pro was in the equationā€ until he attended a tryout with ā€œanother young kid named Willie McCovey.ā€ Apparently, the sight of the future Hall of Famer in action convinced him to give up baseball for good.

In a 2010 interview with MTV, Trump said, again, ā€œI was supposed to be a professional baseball player,ā€ this time adding a flourish: ā€œFortunately, I decided to go into real estate instead.ā€

Three years later, Trump inflated his claim on Twitter, pegging himself not just as a pro prospect but the best player in the state.

… To biographer Michael D’Antonio, Trump went further still, arguing in 2015 that he’d been the best athlete in every sport at the New York Military Academy. He added that he’d decided against a baseball career because ā€œin those days you couldn’t even make any money being a great baseball player.ā€ ā€¦ā€

 
(Cont’d)

ā€œā€¦ Many grown-ups recall high school glory. Far fewer can cite newspaper articles as proof. Except it seems likely that Trump got his own headline wrong—or made it up entirely. After combing the Evening News and the Cornwall Local, the only local newspapers to regularly cover NYMA sports, and doing an extensive search on Newspapers.com, I’ve been unable to find ā€œTRUMP HOMERS TO WIN THE GAMEā€ in any local paper, nor ā€œTRUMP WINS GAME FOR NYMA,ā€ a headline he’d mention to D’Antonio for his book The Truth About Trump.
Perhaps that’s because in 1964, NYMA didn’t play Cornwall High School, according to the schedule in its yearbook. They didn’t play in 1963, either.

What I have been able to find is box scores from some of Trump’s games, and the picture they paint of the player is not pretty.

As for Willie McCovey, he was eight years older than Trump. When Trump was a senior in high school, McCovey was in his fifth year in the major leagues and already an All-Star. ā€¦ā€

[Per the article, the guy who vouched for Trump’s baseball prowess over the years made a lot of claims prior to his death in 2016 (like that Dobias named Trump unofficial assistant coach his senior year) that seemed unlikely b/c he was the assistant coach, not head coach. Anyway, the reporter found microfiche of local HS baseball coverage from the time.]

ā€œā€¦
Combined, the nine box scores I unearthed give Trump a 4 for 29 batting record in his sophomore, junior, and senior seasons, with three runs batted in and a single run scored. Trump’s batting average in those nine games: an underwhelming .138. (I found one additional mention of a hit and another of a hitless game in games that didn’t have box scores.)

Nine games may seem like a small sample size, but NYMA played only a dozen or so games per baseball season, suggesting that Trump’s entire high school career spanned between 30 and 40 games.

It’s perhaps unfair to draw conclusions from a fraction of those games, but the box scores showed that in his sophomore year, Trump’s .100 batting average in those games was the lowest of any of the five players who had at least eight at-bats. As a junior, he did a tad better, hitting .200, albeit on a team that mustered a mere 11 hits over three games. Trump’s senior year, four teammates had more hits than he did. ā€¦ā€
 
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