Trump still hasn't figured out tariffs are a tax on consumers

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I think what we fail to see with Trump when we focus on his insane policy ideas, is that he's not selling policy.

He's selling his BRAND. Brand's are the key to marketing most anything including elections.

His Brand seems to be: "I'm on your side and the Dem's sure as hell are not. They are bad."
Remember Hillary.........how bad he turned her into?

This tariff thing seems to dovetail his Brand. He's like a shade tree mechanic promising he can get your car running in a few hours if you only believe. Never mind he didn't even raise the hood to check out what was really wrong. He's not trying to sell his brand to everyone. Just to those who believe the Dems are bad.
There's a lot of truth here. I guess one might quibble with the causality, though. Is Trump making a choice to sell brand instead of policy? Or is he just incapable of talking about policy?

I see tariffs as integral to Trump's brand in two ways. First, his whole spiel about how foreigners are going to continue to do business in this country even though they will be taxed like never before is basically "Mexico will pay" redux. I don't think people fully appreciate how integral the "Mexico will pay" part was to the campaign. Trump, after all, was not the first person to run on a border wall. To MAGA, the border wall was never really about immigration; it was about humiliation. It was the fantasy that white Americans could make brown people pay for their own exclusion. Yeah, sure. So now it's foreign companies that are going to be paying us for the privilege of doing business here.

Second, tariffs are an incredibly grifting opportunity because so much is at the president's discretion. So of course Trump is drawn to it.
 
1. The first answer involves comparative advantage, a concept in freshman econ that is always underrated because it doesn't come with graphs. But comparative advantage says that countries will end doing what they are good at relative to other countries. It isn't the same as absolute advantage, and that's a confusion that protectionists try to exploit.

I'll give you the textbook example in a minute, but first I'd like to point out that comparative advantage is an extremely common, intuitive and familiar idea that never causes anyone problems until they start to think about different nationalities of people. For instance, why is corn produced in Iowa and citrus in Florida? It's not because you can't grow corn in Florida (I suspect that most things, including corn, grow better in Florida). It's because you can also grow citrus, and given the choice, why wouldn't you? Why do we grow winter wheat in cold climates? I don't think it's because wheat grows better there; rather, it's because nothing else grows in winter in Canada or the Dakotas and thus the planting of wheat is almost cost-less. It's why cities are located on rivers or waterways and farms are inland. Nothing about this is the slighest bit hard to grasp. It's only when we put nationality in the mix that people lose their minds.

Anyway, now to the classic story of international trade in a two-good economy -- call them Widgets and Things. In Country A, a Widget costs 5 labor hours to produce, and a Thing costs 1 labor hour to produce. In Country B, a Widget costs 6 labor hours to produce, and a Thing costs 2 labor hours. Country A is a better producer of both goods. But with trade, it will stop making Widgets and focus entirely on Things, whereas B will make only Widgets (let's assume that the world market for Widgets and Things is extremely large, so the countries don't ever reach any sort of capacity limits). It has a 17% cost advantage in Widgets and a 100% cost advantage in Things.

Or to put it differently, suppose there is a Widget maker in country A. He wants to build a widget factory and looks for capital. The investors tell him, "if I give you $100M, you'll have a plant that can produce 1 million widgets per year. But if I give your buddy here the $100M, he'll build a plant that will make 5M Things per year. He can trade 4M of those Things to Country B for 1M widgets, and still have 1M Things left over. What are you going to do about that?" The answer is: build a Thing factory.

So Country A will still be richer, because it is more productive. But it will be richer by building Things and trading for the Widgets it needs, than by producing Widgets.

2. This is obviously an incredibly simple model but it has some explanatory power. Let's look at, say, textiles and automobiles circa 1990. The U.S. was better than Bangladesh at both, and indeed productivity is generally higher here than there across the board. But Bangladesh makes clothes almost as well as the U.S, whereas it doesn't make autos at all. It has a comparative advantage in textiles. So the textile industry locates to Bangladesh, freeing up workers in the Carolinas to work at a BMW plant. The result is that we become richer. We make and sell autos to Bangladesh, and with those proceeds we can buy all the textiles we want and still have money left over.

Note that this geography of production forms the basis for the wage scale. Bangladesh makes tons of textiles, but textiles are low productivity, low-margin goods. You can trade 1 hour of auto production work for 10 hours of textile work (let's say), which means that American auto workers are going to make 10x the wage as Bangladeshis. This is a great deal for America.

3. So now suppose you want to start a textile mill in NC. As you say, the cost of labor in Bangladesh is so cheap that Americans can't compete. You try to find funding for your mill, you can't get it, and you find a new business to start. THIS IS GOOD! It means wages are high here. Then you try to get money for an auto factory, but nobody will give that to you either because there's not enough autoworking labor to support another car plant. For the country, THIS IS GOOD! So finally, you decide to build an advanced titanium alloy manufacturing plant. You can only get 500 workers, but that's all you need -- you can charge a lot of $$ for your extremely useful, advanced alloys and so you don't need tons and tons of metal rolling off your lines to make good money.

In short: you couldn't find anyone to finance your textile mill. You had to settle for advanced titanium alloys. This is a great result for the United States. We will become much richer by producing alloys and buying textiles than we ever were producing textiles.

4. So in answer to your question, we don't want "competitive balance" in the way you suggest. We don't need American companies to manufacture textiles. We don't want them to, at least not when the choice is making alloys or cars or artificial intelligence. As long as we can trade freely with other countries, they can make our clothes. We'll make operating systems and we will be able to trade those operating systems for all the textiles we need and have lots of money left over for other stuff, like Greek feta or Pakistani shrimp.

5. This is a basic answer. It's basically freshman econ, and it's useful as a simple model. Reality is more complex. I'm not one of those assholes who takes a freshman course and figure that I know everything I need.

One important complication that has taken on special significance in the post-industrial economy is the role of scarce biological traits. In my story, we could become endlessly prosperous by scrapping our low-margin industries and focus entirely on computer technology. In reality, though, not everyone in the US is capable of being a computer designer. Some people just aren't smart enough to do that. So if we have some people who, by dint of genetics, education or other factors, are natural factory workers, and the factories have moved overseas, what are they supposed to do? Or to put it more accurately, if people are natural factory workers, and factories are only viable here when wages are low, aren't those factory workers going to struggle? They are now in competition with workers all over the globe.

My answer to this is: this is one of the central questions of progressive economic policy. In my view, it's become the most important economic policy question of all, in light of what is coming with AI. How can we secure the benefits of trade while providing a decent life (not an impoverished one) to the people in our country whose talents are not so remunerative? There are lots of answers, and we can't go into them here. Feel free to start another thread, if you'd like.

What I can say is that tariffs are not a solution to this problem (obviously, as I've framed it). They are an admission of failure. They are a policy of despair, in which we just accept a bad outcome for lack of effort or imagination in solving the problem presented to us.


Yes, this is really what I was asking about:
One important complication that has taken on special significance in the post-industrial economy is the role of scarce biological traits. In my story, we could become endlessly prosperous by scrapping our low-margin industries and focus entirely on computer technology. In reality, though, not everyone in the US is capable of being a computer designer. Some people just aren't smart enough to do that. So if we have some people who, by dint of genetics, education or other factors, are natural factory workers, and the factories have moved overseas, what are they supposed to do? Or to put it more accurately, if people are natural factory workers, and factories are only viable here when wages are low, aren't those factory workers going to struggle? They are now in competition with workers all over the globe.

And then add in this: Reality is more complex.

We all know that China isn't playing the game equally to the US, so that impacts how things work.

But yes, I knew that we don't want to bring back low margin t-shirt manufacturing, just to create low paying jobs.

Maybe I'll start another thread, I do find this interesting, and I only took one economics class in college, that I recall. I did make an "A", but that was 30 years ago and the memory isn't what it once was, especially considering my work really requires little economic knowledge other than showing ROI for the projects I'm begging for money to fund. :cool:
 
But yes, I knew that we don't want to bring back low margin t-shirt manufacturing, just to create low paying jobs.
Please remember that I was a professor. I'm used to answering questions for the benefit of the whole class, so to speak. So too here. Just because I explain something, it doesn't mean that I think you don't know it.
 
super has really carried the water on this topic in this thread. Totally agree with his points. I would add a couple of comments that have me alarmed about this incredibly stupid policy gambit by Trump.

-Slapping tariffs on other countries will just result in retaliations from other countries, leaving consumers worse off. What gets me is that we have already been down this road before with disastrous results. The world did this back in the 1920s when different countries erected trade barriers; this tit for tat exacerbated the Great Depression.

-I'm always amazed how NAFTA gets all the blame for carving out the US manufacturing base. The impact of Asia is always undersold and the role of automation also gets short thrift.

-The greatest beneficiary of free trade has been the United States. The global economy has seen a move towards freer trade since the 1970s: its usually the US at the forefront of pushing this agenda, usually on pretty favorable turns (Exhibit A...look how many US agricultural interests receive so much protection). Its no coincidence that has coincided with one of the greatest expansions in economic history where the US and American companies have taken the lion's share. Sure we have had some foreign companies do well (thankfully....share in the spoils people), but take a look at the Global 1000 to see very clearly how American companies dominate.

-so let me see if I get this right...Trump not only wants to greatly curb migration from Mexico and other Latin American countries, but he also wants to limit their economic opportunities by curtailing their trade opportunities? Is his intention to doom Latin America to a perpetual underclass? The best thing that could happen to the US for a variety of reasons is to have the countries to its south develop robust economies. The only way you achieve that is through trade. One of the things that Bush 2 got right is that Latin America can be the cheap labor partner to the US and Canada to try and compete with Asia; sadly, US foreign policy the last twenty years has not operated with this framework.
 
There's a lot of truth here. I guess one might quibble with the causality, though. Is Trump making a choice to sell brand instead of policy? Or is he just incapable of talking about policy?

I see tariffs as integral to Trump's brand in two ways. First, his whole spiel about how foreigners are going to continue to do business in this country even though they will be taxed like never before is basically "Mexico will pay" redux. I don't think people fully appreciate how integral the "Mexico will pay" part was to the campaign. Trump, after all, was not the first person to run on a border wall. To MAGA, the border wall was never really about immigration; it was about humiliation. It was the fantasy that white Americans could make brown people pay for their own exclusion. Yeah, sure. So now it's foreign companies that are going to be paying us for the privilege of doing business here.

Second, tariffs are an incredibly grifting opportunity because so much is at the president's discretion. So of course Trump is drawn to it.

To put it simply, American tariffs made the Great Depression orders of magnitude worse and another contributor to thne eruption of World War II. They cause inflation of not just one, but at least two ways:

1. As a value added tax

2. Prevention of flow of US capital out of the country, reducing pressure in the US. Demand for the US dollar also retains its value as the premier American currency.

3. Tariffs also encourage other nations to impose retaliatory taxes and deliberately weaken their currency so that American products are unaffordable overseas. This of course costs Americans millions of jobs.


Trump is an infant.
 
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How long until he officially proposes replacing the federal income tax with tariffs?

I've said before, he'll say anything if he thinks it'll get him a vote between now and Nov. 5th. No matter how stupid it is in reality. Again, these are things he believes stupid people will think sound smart.

Whether he'd actually follow thru with this lunacy is open to question, I guess? Most things he he says he'll do, I take his word for - he's shown in the past he'd at least try. This seems so obviously, catastrophically dumb, that I'm not sure I believe he'd actually see it through. But then again, he only cares about Nov. 5th and not a single day after. If he gets elected, he's triumphed. Period.

I doubt he cares what price the country would pay for implementing the stupid ideas he spewed to get elected.
 
How long until he officially proposes replacing the federal income tax with tariffs?

I've said before, he'll say anything if he thinks it'll get him a vote between now and Nov. 5th. No matter how stupid it is in reality. Again, these are things he believes stupid people will think sound smart.

Whether he'd actually follow thru with this lunacy is open to question, I guess? Most things he he says he'll do, I take his word for - he's shown in the past he'd at least try. This seems so obviously, catastrophically dumb, that I'm not sure I believe he'd actually see it through. But then again, he only cares about Nov. 5th and not a single day after. If he gets elected, he's triumphed. Period.

I doubt he cares what price the country would pay for implementing the stupid ideas he spewed to get elected.
He crossed that Rubicon at a staged barbershop event earlier this week.
 
To respond directly to the thread title: to be completely fair, his (cult) supporters haven't figured it out yet either. The "do your own research" crowd doesn't seem keen on following its own advice.
 
To respond directly to the thread title: to be completely fair, his (cult) supporters haven't figured it out yet either. The "do your own research" crowd doesn't seem keen on following its own advice.
It doesn’t matter what research you do when you lack the intelligence and knowledge to understand what you read/hear.
 
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