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U.S. Budget Negotiations

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
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  • Politics 
I would not have anticipated that, of all the writers and contributors at fivethirtyeight.com, Harry Enten would be the one who would be the TV personality.
 
nycfan said:
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This puts not just Trump but the entire GOP congressional delegation in a massive bind. They either pass this bill and get absolutely obliterated for the next several months leading up to November 2026, or they let it fail and look like the incompetent morons they are. I suspect they'll still pass it and try to spin it, but there's not a single congressperson who's actually excited about voting for a bill that is so far underwater.
 
lawtig02 said:
This puts not just Trump but the entire GOP congressional delegation in a massive bind. They either pass this bill and get absolutely obliterated for the next several months leading up to November 2026, or they let it fail and look like the incompetent morons they are. I suspect they'll still pass it and try to spin it, but there's not a single congressperson who's actually excited about voting for a bill that is so far underwater.
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If they can pass it, they absolutely will. The problem is threading the very narrow House and Senate majorities.

Recall that Trump's original reconciliation tax bill was extremely unpopular and when it passed in December 2017, it put Trump at the nadir of his popularity. But that was basically a blip and his popularity rebounded from 38% to 45% or so in a few months and stayed at between 40%-45% his whole presidency. Trump and Republicans can easily spin the bill over time (as can Democrats). What matters is how the economy performs between now and November 2026.
 
Calheel said:
If they can pass it, they absolutely will. The problem is threading the very narrow House and Senate majorities.

Recall that Trump's original reconciliation tax bill was extremely unpopular and when it passed in December 2017, it put Trump at the nadir of his popularity. But that was basically a blip and his popularity rebounded from 38% to 45% or so in a few months and stayed at between 40%-45% his whole presidency. Trump and Republicans can easily spin the bill over time (as can Democrats). What matters is how the economy performs between now and November 2026.
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Very true.
 
Calheel said:
If they can pass it, they absolutely will. The problem is threading the very narrow House and Senate majorities.

Recall that Trump's original reconciliation tax bill was extremely unpopular and when it passed in December 2017, it put Trump at the nadir of his popularity. But that was basically a blip and his popularity rebounded from 38% to 45% or so in a few months and stayed at between 40%-45% his whole presidency. Trump and Republicans can easily spin the bill over time (as can Democrats). What matters is how the economy performs between now and November 2026.
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The context is different this time around. Considerably different. For one thing, IIRC, the original 2017 reconciliation bill included no cuts to health care because they were doing that as a separate bill.
 
superrific said:
The context is different this time around. Considerably different. For one thing, IIRC, the original 2017 reconciliation bill included no cuts to health care because they were doing that as a separate bill.
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Of the untouchable third rails of SS, Medicare and Medicaid, Medicaid is definitely the most touchable. The Republicans will bill it as anti-grift, common sense reform. And that people should be working and not mooching off the government dole. That worked for welfare reform in the 90s.

The other thing is that the majority of Medicaid recipients might be Trumpers. And we have already seen how they will refuse to blame Trump for the policies that directly hurt them.
 
Calheel said:
Of the untouchable third rails of SS, Medicare and Medicaid, Medicaid is definitely the most touchable. The Republicans will bill it as anti-grift, common sense reform. And that people should be working and not mooching off the government dole. That worked for welfare reform in the 90s.

The other thing is that the majority of Medicaid recipients might be Trumpers. And we have already seen how they will refuse to blame Trump for the policies that directly hurt them.
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We'll see. Trump ran on not cutting health care or Medicaid. That's not the same thing as people getting caught up in immigration sweeps that they voted for and probably shouldn't have.
 
superrific said:
We'll see. Trump ran on not cutting health care or Medicaid. That's not the same thing as people getting caught up in immigration sweeps that they voted for and probably shouldn't have.
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You clearly don't understand MAGA-ese. He is not "cutting" Medicaid. He is eliminating "waste, fraud and abuse" in Medicaid. Totally different.

abcnews.go.com

Here are the times Trump has said he wouldn't cut Medicaid

For several months, Trump has promised not to touch the federal health care program for poor, elderly and disabled Americans.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
Calheel said:
You clearly don't understand MAGA-ese. He is not "cutting" Medicaid. He is eliminating "waste, fraud and abuse" in Medicaid. Totally different.

abcnews.go.com

Here are the times Trump has said he wouldn't cut Medicaid

For several months, Trump has promised not to touch the federal health care program for poor, elderly and disabled Americans.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
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Not sure if sarcastic. Obviously the fraud waste abuse stuff is farcical. Are you mocking that, or saying that the base will eat that up?

Because the problem with relying on the second one is that they are less unlikely to see themselves as waste, fraud and abuse.
 
superrific said:
Not sure if sarcastic. Obviously the fraud waste abuse stuff is farcical. Are you mocking that, or saying that the base will eat that up?

Because the problem with relying on the second one is that they are less unlikely to see themselves as waste, fraud and abuse.
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It’s mocking, not sarcastic.

But it is exactly how Trump will defend the bill.

And given how MAGA is always willing to blame themselves before Trump, I could totally see them deciding that they must be part of the waste, fraud and abuse. I don’t see them supporting those godless democrats.
 
Calheel said:
It’s mocking, not sarcastic.

But it is exactly how Trump will defend the bill.

And given how MAGA is always willing to blame themselves before Trump, I could totally see them deciding that they must be part of the waste, fraud and abuse. I don’t see them supporting those godless democrats.
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Agree.

It’ll be similar to the MAGAts who thought/think that Trump was/is only going to deport undocumented immigrants who were violent criminals, not the “good” ones who worked hard and were good neighbors or are family members….
 
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Calheel said:
And given how MAGA is always willing to blame themselves before Trump, I could totally see them deciding that they must be part of the waste, fraud and abuse. I don’t see them supporting those godless democrats.
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Fair, but it's also true that MAGA is a movement borne of grievance. It's all grievance, all the time. Thus they are unlikely to view themselves as part of the problem. The waste fraud and abuse comes from the godless anti-American left.
 


I think the GOP has already signaled they will ignore the parliamentarian if it suits them, but we’ll see.
 
Bombing Iran has taken the focus on this horrible bill that will crush our R&D, ramp up deficit spending, and together with tariffs and an expected upsurge in oil futures will hurl us toward Stagflation, 70s style.


dress70s.jpg
 
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