U.S. Budget Negotiations

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They are actually saying $880 billion from mandatory spending, which also includes Medicare and Social Security. But despite Trump’s budgets in his first term including proposed cuts to those programs, people assume that he is serious about not cutting those now. Thus $880 B from Medicaid.

But here’s the thing — aggregate Medicaid spending was about $880 billion last year but that includes the portion funded by states. The federal government funded just under 70% of the total, so around $606 Billion. So even if you shut down Medicaid entirely you will be $180 Billion short of the goal, so would need to look at Social security and/or Medicare to reach the goal.

Almost everyone assumes that this cut number is impossible to pass, but we’ll see.
 
It is hard to overstate the catastrophic funding loss to states that would arise from defunding Medicaid …

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“… Medicaid is a spending item and at the same time the largest source of federal revenues for state budgets. As a result of the federal matching structure, Medicaid has a unique role in state budgets as both an expenditure item and a source of federal revenue for states.

According to data from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO), in state fiscal year (SFY) 2023, Medicaid accounted for 30% of total state spending for all items in the budget (Figure 7). Medicaid accounted for only 15% of expenditures from state funds (including state general funds and other state funds), second to K-12 education (23%). On the other hand, Medicaid accounted for 57% of all expenditures from federal funds.

States have an incentive to control Medicaid spending because they pay a share of Medicaid costs. At the same time, research shows that federal matching dollars from Medicaid spending have positive effects for state economies.

A number of studies show that states that have adopted the ACA Medicaid expansion have realized budget savings, revenue gains, overall economic growth as well as observed positive effects on the finances of hospitals and other health care providers. …”
 

“… In 2022, the latest year for which health expenditure data are available, Medicaid:

  • Provided health insurance for about 91 million Americans, or about 27 percent of the U.S. population.
  • Cost the federal government $592 billion, though spending in 2022 was still elevated because of some continued pandemic relief spending.
  • Represented 19 percent of all health spending in the U.S.
In addition, the program plays a significant role in the country's healthcare system:

 

“… In 2022, the latest year for which health expenditure data are available, Medicaid:

  • Provided health insurance for about 91 million Americans, or about 27 percent of the U.S. population.
  • Cost the federal government $592 billion, though spending in 2022 was still elevated because of some continued pandemic relief spending.
  • Represented 19 percent of all health spending in the U.S.
In addition, the program plays a significant role in the country's healthcare system:

So it covered 27% of Americans for 19% of the total spend on health care? Seems like a pretty good deal to me.
 
Yeah, nursing homes will be going out of business all over the place.

If you are 50 and don’t have long term care insurance you should probably call an insurance agent.
 

House GOP Plan Envisions $4.5 Trillion in Tax Cuts​

Senate is moving ahead with its own narrower plan focusing on border security​



“… That plan released Wednesday—headed for a Budget Committee vote Thursday—calls for a minimum of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over a decade and a maximum of $4.5 trillion in tax cuts from the Ways and Means Committee. It would increase the federal debt limit by $4 trillion, likely enough to get through about two years. The plan calls for $300 billion in new spending, likely for immigration enforcement and the military.

The spending-cut minimum is below the $2 trillion or $2.5 trillion floor that the most conservative House Republicans wanted to hit. The tax-cut maximum is below the $5.5 trillion that would allow for extending all of the tax cuts that expire at the end of this year and make room for priorities of President Trump such as tax-free tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits.

The release of the plan came as Senate Republicans also claimed progress Wednesday in implementing Trump’s top priorities. The House and Senate are still moving in different and incompatible directions, however, and they have to resolve that dispute before they can get anything significant to Trump’s desk.
 
Is that a typo? What the fuck does the Judiciary Committee need $110B for?
That is not money the committee uses, it is spending on areas that committee conducts oversight for and so will have hearings etc on that portion of the budget.
 

House GOP Plan Envisions $4.5 Trillion in Tax Cuts​

Senate is moving ahead with its own narrower plan focusing on border security​



“… That plan released Wednesday—headed for a Budget Committee vote Thursday—calls for a minimum of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over a decade and a maximum of $4.5 trillion in tax cuts from the Ways and Means Committee. It would increase the federal debt limit by $4 trillion, likely enough to get through about two years. The plan calls for $300 billion in new spending, likely for immigration enforcement and the military.

The spending-cut minimum is below the $2 trillion or $2.5 trillion floor that the most conservative House Republicans wanted to hit. The tax-cut maximum is below the $5.5 trillion that would allow for extending all of the tax cuts that expire at the end of this year and make room for priorities of President Trump such as tax-free tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits.

The release of the plan came as Senate Republicans also claimed progress Wednesday in implementing Trump’s top priorities. The House and Senate are still moving in different and incompatible directions, however, and they have to resolve that dispute before they can get anything significant to Trump’s desk.
“… Republicans have several options that could help hit that $4.5 trillion target. Ways and Means could cut spending in its jurisdiction, including programs for low-income households and Medicare changes that wouldn’t directly hit beneficiaries. The panel could also curb tax breaks, including clean-energy tax credits that Democratically- controlled Congress enacted in 2022.

On the spending side, the largest cuts would be at least $880 billion from the Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income people. Republicans have talked about a variety of Medicaid changes, including work requirements for able-bodied beneficiaries and revisions to funding formulas for the federal-state program.

Other possible spending-cut targets include student-loan programs and food assistance for low-income people. …

… One way the Senate will likely find money is by repealing a Biden-administration rule for minimum staffing requirements at nursing homes, said Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R., Idaho.). Such a move would save the government $22 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. …”

——
I feel like everyone is playing dumb about the actual Medicaid budget …
 
🚨 continued

“… Republicans are planning to assume that real economic growth—caused by their plans and Trump’s actions on deregulation and fossil-fuel production—can be higher than the 1.8% forecast by the Congressional Budget Office. That would throw off enough tax revenue so Republicans can claim that their plan wouldn’t add to budget deficits.

But such growth is difficult to achieve and sustain, economists say, especially because Trump’s immigration and tariff policies tend to slow growth. …”

Lecy Goranson Smile GIF by ABC Network

“… Meanwhile, in the Senate, the Budget Committee began advancing the first phase of its two-track plan.

Instead of one big bill, Republican senators wrote a budget aimed at allowing a roughly $350 billion package focused on border-security and national defense. They want to save the messier tax and spending debate until later in the year, though that approach runs the risk that Republicans might struggle to do that and need to seek Democratic votes to avoid a tax increase.

Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, and budget chief Russell Vought met Tuesday with Senate Republicans and emphasized how they are running out of money for the immigration enforcement Trump wants, said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), the Budget Committee chairman. The idea is to provide enough money now to cover Trump’s immigration priorities for the next four years, offset with spending cuts and revenue from energy leases over four years. …”
 
That is not money the committee uses, it is spending on areas that committee conducts oversight for and so will have hearings etc on that portion of the budget.
I know that. But what does the Judiciary oversee that costs $110B? I see that DOJ has requested $50B, which is more than I had thought (DOJ proper is much less), but what else?
 
I know that. But what does the Judiciary oversee that costs $110B? I see that DOJ has requested $50B, which is more than I had thought (DOJ proper is much less), but what else?
Well, the Federal Court system, ICE, the FBI and the ATF, as well. It sure what else.

The $110B is for immigration.
 
Well, the Federal Court system, the FBI and the ATF, as well. It sure what else.
FBI is included in the DOJ request. Probably ATF though I'm not sure. Federal courts requested $10B which is a big number and apparently includes capital expenses (no way expenses cost that much). I mean, I guess this estimate is sort of in the ballpark by now.
 
FBI is included in the DOJ request. Probably ATF though I'm not sure. Federal courts requested $10B which is a big number and apparently includes capital expenses (no way expenses cost that much). I mean, I guess this estimate is sort of in the ballpark by now.
Pretty sure that was $110B just for immigration.

“… On immigration and border security funding, a top Trump priority, the resolution grants the Judiciary Committee, which oversees immigration policy, $110 billion.

That's less than the Senate budget resolution, which grants the Judiciary Committee $175 billion for immigration enforcement. …”


Also of note:

“… If the House fails to find $2 trillion in deficit reduction, the resolution says the Ways & Means Committee’s mandate of $4.5 trillion “should be reduced by a commensurate amount to offset the difference.” House conservatives have demanded steeper cuts. …”
 
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