U.S. Budget Negotiations

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There are multiple chances for a govt shutdown thus year (finalizing the FY25 budget when CR runs out mid-March), raising debt ceiling in summer or FY2026 budget on October 1).
Had the two massive ones back in mid-1990s and lengthy ones in IIRC 2014 and 2018
 
I think this is the magical thinking Trump is urging with his hilarious (if the issue wasn’t so serious) let’s balance the budget posts. Just declare the tax cuts free and declare the budget balanced!

Black Magic GIF
Don is force feeding his name, image, likeness, temperament, and criminality into every aspect of US government. He’s essentially turning congress into a variation of Mazars.
 


GIFT LINK 🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/politics/republ...14?st=PG8AAk&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… Republicans are readying an untested and aggressive move—a blatant gimmick, critics say—that would declare that Congress can extend expiring tax cuts and record no costs. House Republicans didn’t attempt the maneuver in the budget they passed this week. Key GOP senators are eager to try it.

… The idea—known by the lovely Washington name of “current-policy baseline”—has two main advantages for Republicans.

First, it makes a $4 trillion tax cut over a decade look like $0, which could be easier to sell to lawmakers and voters. Second, in the arcane Senate budget procedure world, declaring tax-cut extensions free opens Republicans’ easiest path to making President Trump’s expiring tax cuts permanent.

… The reaction from Democrats, budget experts and a handful of Republicans has been withering. Rep. David Schweikert (R., Ariz.) has described the idea as a fraud and its proponents as lazy and intellectual scammers.

“Am I giving you enough inflammatory language?” he said. “I can actually go much further.”

Here’s the thing: Whether or not Republicans assume tax cuts have no cost, the endpoint of extending tax cuts would be the same when revenue and spending are tallied over the next few years. Assuming tax-cut extensions are free means acknowledging that today’s official debt projections are too low.

… Republicans find themselves here because of choices they made in 2017.

… Republicans capped their 2017 tax cuts at $1.5 trillion over 10 years and followed the requirement that reconciliation bills can’t add to deficits beyond the budget window.

To hit those targets, they scheduled core provisions—including individual tax rate cuts, a higher standard deduction and a larger child tax credit—to expire after 2025.

… They made a calculated bet that a future Congress would extend popular tax breaks. They are now that future Congress, regaining full control in last year’s elections and trying again to use reconciliation for tax cuts.

The House plan uses the standard, consistent accounting approach called the current-law baseline. Because tax cuts aren’t on the books after 2025, official projections show revenue rising and deficits shrinking; changing that shows up as a revenue loss.

The House plan includes spending cuts and allocates $4 trillion to $4.5 trillion for tax cuts, roughly enough for a 10-year extension of the expiring tax cuts. They would, however, have a hard time making cuts permanent or including ideas like a higher cap on state and local tax deductions and Trump promises like “no tax on tips.”

Senators say, “Wait, these tax cuts have existed for eight years, and Congress shouldn’t consider extensions a cost.” They haven’t settled on exact procedures and mechanics, but they want to use the current-policy baseline so that only new proposals would carry costs.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) supports the idea.

“That’s a really important principle and I hope that we can employ that,” he told reporters last week. “It makes a big difference on the calculations and I think it also makes good logical sense.” …”

The rehabilitated "mark-to-market" accounting for governments.
 
For their support, Dems should insist on:
1. Do not extend the tax cuts for persons making over $400,000 per year Each time you gived the wealthy anoither tax break you shift the burden of funding defense, entitlemenets etc more onto the backs of middle and working class.
2) No corporation pays the quoted tax rate. It was 32%, Trump 1 lowered it to 21%. Extend it but only if the rate goes to 27%
3) Right now workers pay Soc Security taxes on first $176,100 of income and busineses match that, Make people paying over 400k pay SS tax with the employer match. This would provide a 20-30 year windfall for the SS as Musk, Zuckerberg etc pay in but won;t get benefits for many years.
4) Restore jobs to fired federal workers and make this the decision of the agency head and Congress, as it should be.

Make the wealthy and large corps pay theur fair share of the sacrifices needed. Right now, these burdens are falling unfairly on the middle and working classes.
 
I cannot believe it. Looks like Republicans in the House are going to stick together and enough Dem Senators are worried about being blamed for a shutdown that they will vote for the CR. According to Talking Points Memo.
 
I cannot believe it. Looks like Republicans in the House are going to stick together and enough Dem Senators are worried about being blamed for a shutdown that they will vote for the CR. According to Talking Points Memo.
yikes
 
“…The 99-page bill would provide a slight boost to defense programs while trimming nondefense programs below 2024 budget year levels. That approach is likely to be a nonstarter for most Democrats, who have long insisted that defense and nondefense spending move in the same direction.

Congress must act by midnight Friday to avoid a partial government shutdown.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is teeing up the bill for a vote on Tuesday despite the lack of buy-in from Democrats, essentially daring them to vote against it and risk a shutdown. He also is betting that Republicans can muscle the legislation through the House largely by themselves.

… House Republicans' leadership staff outlined the contours of the measure Saturday, saying it would allow for about $892.5 billion in defense spending and about $708 billion in nondefense spending. The defense spending is slightly above the prior year's level, but the nondefense comes in about 8% below.

The leadership aides said the deal does not include various side agreements designed to cushion nondefense program spending from cuts. Those side agreements were part of negotiations by Democratic President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when they were in office. The negotiations allowed for a debt ceiling extension in return for spending restraints. And under terms of that agreement, defense and nondefense spending were both set to increase 1% this year.


Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., says he has never voted for a continuing resolution, what lawmakers often call a CR, but he is on board with Johnson's effort. He says he has confidence in Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, to make a difference on the nation's debt.

"I don't like CRs," Norman said. "But what's the alternative? Negotiate with Democrats? No." …


Democratic leaders are warning that the decision to move ahead without consulting them increases the prospects for a shutdown. One of their biggest concerns is the flexibility the legislation would give the Trump administration on spending.

"We cannot stand by and accept a yearlong power grab CR that would help Elon take a chainsaw to programs that families rely on and agencies that keep our communities safe," said Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the lead Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The Democratic leadership in both chambers has stressed that Republicans have the majority and are responsible for funding the government. But leaders also have been wary of saying how Democrats would vote on a continuing resolution. …”

 
“…The 99-page bill would provide a slight boost to defense programs while trimming nondefense programs below 2024 budget year levels. That approach is likely to be a nonstarter for most Democrats, who have long insisted that defense and nondefense spending move in the same direction.

Congress must act by midnight Friday to avoid a partial government shutdown.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is teeing up the bill for a vote on Tuesday despite the lack of buy-in from Democrats, essentially daring them to vote against it and risk a shutdown. He also is betting that Republicans can muscle the legislation through the House largely by themselves.

… House Republicans' leadership staff outlined the contours of the measure Saturday, saying it would allow for about $892.5 billion in defense spending and about $708 billion in nondefense spending. The defense spending is slightly above the prior year's level, but the nondefense comes in about 8% below.

The leadership aides said the deal does not include various side agreements designed to cushion nondefense program spending from cuts. Those side agreements were part of negotiations by Democratic President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when they were in office. The negotiations allowed for a debt ceiling extension in return for spending restraints. And under terms of that agreement, defense and nondefense spending were both set to increase 1% this year.


Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., says he has never voted for a continuing resolution, what lawmakers often call a CR, but he is on board with Johnson's effort. He says he has confidence in Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, to make a difference on the nation's debt.

"I don't like CRs," Norman said. "But what's the alternative? Negotiate with Democrats? No." …


Democratic leaders are warning that the decision to move ahead without consulting them increases the prospects for a shutdown. One of their biggest concerns is the flexibility the legislation would give the Trump administration on spending.

"We cannot stand by and accept a yearlong power grab CR that would help Elon take a chainsaw to programs that families rely on and agencies that keep our communities safe," said Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the lead Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The Democratic leadership in both chambers has stressed that Republicans have the majority and are responsible for funding the government. But leaders also have been wary of saying how Democrats would vote on a continuing resolution. …”


“… Trump has been meeting with House Republicans in an effort to win their votes on the legislation.

Republicans have a 218-214 majority in the House, so if all lawmakers vote, they can afford only one defection if Democrats unite in opposition.

The math gets even harder in the Senate, where at least seven Democrats would have to vote for the legislation to overcome a filibuster. And that's assuming all 53 Republicans vote for it.”
 
The FY2025 fiscal year is almost half oveer. So if you pass an 8% cut (compared to full FY24) that likely means a 16% cut for final six months/ This gets confusins so media may have it wrong and it could be 4/8 cut. Dems should not sign on unless they get some compromises and let the Rs try and pass it on their own.
A better way would be 1/2 cut for both defense and non-defense ret of year and then fit FY26 out later
 
“… Trump has been meeting with House Republicans in an effort to win their votes on the legislation.

Republicans have a 218-214 majority in the House, so if all lawmakers vote, they can afford only one defection if Democrats unite in opposition.

The math gets even harder in the Senate, where at least seven Democrats would have to vote for the legislation to overcome a filibuster. And that's assuming all 53 Republicans vote for it.”
huh? Isn't that why they have reconciliation? So you just need 50?
 
huh? Isn't that why they have reconciliation? So you just need 50?
Two different things are happening. The new omnibus budget bill for the fiscal year commencing October 1 2025 is being negotiated and the plan is to pass that via reconciliation to avoid the filibuster in the Senate.

The House could never pass a budget for the FY that commenced October 1, 2024, so they have used a CR to continue the 2023 budget to keep the government open. The CR is subject to filibuster but previously the Democrat-controlled (barely) Senate was able to get 60+ votes for the CR coming out of the GOP House b/c the GOP had to negotiate with Dems in the House to get something the Senate would pass. Now that the GOP co trials both chambers, they are not as willing to negotiate with Dems on the CR (even though the GOP needs Dem votes in the Senate).

Right now, the GOP gambit is that if they can pass the CR in the House with just GOP votes (not clear that they can) then Dems would be blamed for a government shutdown if they filibuster the CR in the Senate, so enough Dems would capitulate to overcome the filibuster to keep the government open under the CR. But the House GOP can’t quite deliver a “clean” CR (continuing things under the current CR), adding some cuts and other changes to satisfy the right flank. And the right flank is cheering on the impoundment of authorized spending by Musk and Trump, so they will probably vote for this CR in reliance on that unconstitutional maneuver.
 
“… House Republicans hope to vote on a bill to extend federal funding until the end of September. If they succeed, after dropping talks with Democrats on a bipartisan measure, they’ll trigger a showdown in the Senate that could end in a damaging government shutdown.

Democrats will then have to decide whether they’ll oppose the measure by mounting a filibuster. If they block it, they will risk taking the blame for shutting down the government unless they can convince the public it’s Trump’s fault. If they allow the measure to pass, they could again look like they lack the strength and purpose to resist Trump’s presidency.

The drama ahead of Friday’s funding deadline could have a serious impact on the lives and well-being of millions of Americans. A shutdown could force essential government workers to go without pay and see many more furloughed. It would disrupt services including airport security, border crossings and national parks. It would deepen the turmoil sparked by Trump’s return to the Oval Office as his brinksmanship on tariffs rocks the economy and Elon Musk’s indiscriminate shredding of the federal government causes chaos.

And Trump only heightened this uncertainty when he declined to rule out the possibility of a recession this year in an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.” Vowing to go forward with his trade war policies, Trump dismissed a slide in the stock markets, which are usually one of his favorite measures of economic performance.…”

 
“… House Republicans hope to vote on a bill to extend federal funding until the end of September. If they succeed, after dropping talks with Democrats on a bipartisan measure, they’ll trigger a showdown in the Senate that could end in a damaging government shutdown.

Democrats will then have to decide whether they’ll oppose the measure by mounting a filibuster. If they block it, they will risk taking the blame for shutting down the government unless they can convince the public it’s Trump’s fault. If they allow the measure to pass, they could again look like they lack the strength and purpose to resist Trump’s presidency.

The drama ahead of Friday’s funding deadline could have a serious impact on the lives and well-being of millions of Americans. A shutdown could force essential government workers to go without pay and see many more furloughed. It would disrupt services including airport security, border crossings and national parks. It would deepen the turmoil sparked by Trump’s return to the Oval Office as his brinksmanship on tariffs rocks the economy and Elon Musk’s indiscriminate shredding of the federal government causes chaos.

And Trump only heightened this uncertainty when he declined to rule out the possibility of a recession this year in an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.” Vowing to go forward with his trade war policies, Trump dismissed a slide in the stock markets, which are usually one of his favorite measures of economic performance.…”

“… Still, the failure to produce detailed spending plans for individual government departments and the decision to push vital decisions down the road raises doubts about the House majority’s capacity to function.

The bill does not, for instance, deal with the need to raise the government’s borrowing limit — another looming crisis that could cause economic contagion within weeks without prompt action.

It also fails to codify Musk’s swing at federal government jobs and programs into law — perhaps because they’re increasingly divisive and could threaten GOP unity.

Trump is betting that support for Musk’s mission among MAGA base voters will convince GOP lawmakers who are usually skeptical of such measures to back this temporary fix.


If the stopgap spending bill reaches the Senate, party leaders will face a dilemma. For now, they are calling for a resumption of bipartisan negotiations on full-year budget bills shelved by Johnson and Trump, in what seems more like a public relations exercise than a serious political strategy.

A failure to block the measure — which the party has the power to do, given the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate — could further demoralize supporters and underscore the impotence of Democrats in Republican-dominated Washington.

But if Democrats do block the bill and are instrumental in shutting down the government and vital services, they risk hurting their own constituents and distracting from the political heat that is beginning to build on Trump and Musk.

Democrats want to show that the GOP can’t govern — and some lawmakers believe they shouldn’t get in the way of what they see as Trump’s chaos and malfeasance.

Shutting the government to save it also seems like a logical stretch.

And there’s political peril, too, since many Americans support the president’s aspirations to downsize the federal machine — even if some doubt his methods. …”
 
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