U.S. Budget Negotiations

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 426
  • Views: 11K
  • Politics 
heelinhell said:
looking like a bill giving to the rich and ignoring the hoi polloi

Click to expand...
The bill right now is bare bones. It's only 28 pages, mostly extensions of low-hanging Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions that are expiring. Expect to see amendments early next week that include the real meat. I think this is a case of keeping the substantive and politically fraught stuff out of eyesight until the last minute. In other words, stay tuned.
 
TangledUpInBlue06 said:
The bill right now is bare bones. It's only 28 pages, mostly extensions of low-hanging Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions that are expiring. Expect to see amendments early next week that include the real meat. I think this is a case of keeping the substantive and politically fraught stuff out of eyesight until the last minute. In other words, stay tuned.
Click to expand...
That was my takeaway, as well. That said, it suggests to me that many of the amendments to be offered will go down in flames and there will be no "Big Beautiful Bill" going to the Senate.

I'm guessing the Big Beautiful Bill coming out of the House will be little different from the 2017 tax bill that lined the pockets of the well to do and did nothing of substance to benefit working and middle class families.
 
heelinhell said:
That was my takeaway, as well. That said, it suggests to me that many of the amendments to be offered will go down in flames and there will be no "Big Beautiful Bill" going to the Senate.

I'm guessing the Big Beautiful Bill coming out of the House will be little different from the 2017 tax bill that lined the pockets of the well to do and did nothing of substance to benefit working and middle class families.
Click to expand...
I think that is probably a safe bet. The margins are so narrow, the bill will regress toward the easiest version of itself, and I think you're right that that will look a lot like the 2017 TCJA extended.

There is probably already a framework that Jason Smith is sitting on and he'll offer it as an amendment in the form of a substitute, i.e. replace the full bill text with this new text. Even assuming it passes, I think there is little chance the Senate passes any House version as written. The Senate will pass their own version, then the two bills will go to reconciliation where the real work will happen.

One thing I'm watching is the revenue scoring of whatever happens. The rules prevent a budget reconciliation bill from increasing the deficit beyond the 10-yr budget window. The 2025 budget resolution that provides for reconciliation here plays games. It says to use a "current policy baseline" instead of a "current law baseline." That means, assume all laws in effect as of a snapshot when the bill is passed will remain in effect in perpetuity. The TCJA provisions, of course, are scheduled to expire if there is no action. A current policy baseline says ignore that they will expire, pretend they're permanent. Thus, any extension of them costs no money. It's a total fabrication and gimmick. It's like assuming a ball thrown in the air and currently in the air at this moment will always stay in the air. A current law baseline, on the other hand, says to consider the natural expiration of provisions. Thus, it would cost money to extend them.

Will the Parliamentarian allow scoring on a current policy baseline? If not, will the Senate try to overrule her?
 
I should add that this is all a little comical, too. Because the 2017 bill, also passed through reconciliation, sunset many provisions that cost money so that it would comply with the rule not to add to the deficit beyond the budget window. And I believe at least part of the thinking there was that Trump term 1 would be immediately followed by Trump term 2, and the taxpayer-friendly provisions scheduled to expire at the end of 2025 would be the next president's problem. Oops.
 
I wonder if they realize a $500 increase in the child tax credit will add close to 30 Billion annually? Or that the increases in the standard deduction would add roughly another 30 Billion? Should be fun how the math works out for them.
 
BlueSmoke said:
I wonder if they realize a $500 increase in the child tax credit will add close to 30 Billion annually? Or that the increases in the standard deduction would add roughly another 30 Billion? Should be fun how the math works out for them.
Click to expand...
That is one reason among many why the Treasury Secretary is urging Congress to raise the debt ceiling...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top