ZenMode
Inconceivable Member
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They aren't "down" anything. They aren't trying to overcome a deficit. They're a hospital with a budget.I guess we're doing this again?
1. They do not need to know "nearly precisely" how many patients they are losing. For one thing, all they need to know is whether it's too many. Think of it this way: if our football team is down 52-10 headed into the fourth quarter, we don't know precisely how many points we will end up with but we know we're going to lose.
Your range is "nearly precisely", IMO.Second, for high revenue businesses like hospitals, statistical projection methods work very well. If you have a million customers, and then next week you have 900,000, that's what you need to know. If it's 893,356 or 913,122 doesn't matter.
Ok.Third, in budgeting and all business analysis, the standard practice is to run projections on different base cases. for instance, in financial projections: you might run the numbers assuming a best case scenario of 3% interest rates going forward; an average case of 4%, and a worst case of 5%.
This is circular. In order to be precise, they have to be precise with the variables that go into the estimate.Put all these together and companies have a very good financial picture. They don't know exactly what will happen, but they know the likelihood. They can tell you with quite a lot of precision what their chances of survival are. For instance, they might know that they have a 10% of surviving. That's a piss poor likelihood.
Knowing, so specifically, the finances of all medical facilities, All around the country, who could be impacted to the point of closure or needing subsidies? Absolutely not. That a silly claim.2. You don't think the hospitals know each others' finances, roughly speaking?
BSThey do.
Ridiculous claim.They have trade associations. There are consultants who gather data. They know the reimbursement schedules, and the population in various areas. They know the doctors' salaries and staff salaries.
BS againThey might not know exactly which hospitals will close but they can predict accurately that it would be between X% and Y%.
Well, no shit.Note: I don't know this for sure about hospitals per se, but I know this for a fact for other big businesses and I see no reason hospitals would be different given that they hire the same MBAs.
Again, circular. You have to know how it's calculated to know it's not enough.3. They do not need to know exactly how the government will calculate subsidies if they know it's not enough.
You're again assuming detailed knowledge on all kinds of variables that there's no reason to believe they know.I've read where the stabilization fund would have to be north of $200B. So no matter what the subsidy calculation, it's not going to cut it.
It's all just circular reasoning. You assume they know X, which makes them able to know Y, Even though you are assuming that they know X to start with.4. They know within HOURS because they've already modeled it. Hospitals employ hundreds or thousands of people in administrative/analyst roles. What do you think they do all day? Just because you pick your nose doesn't mean that's what everyone does.
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