
—>
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...f?st=72WHYG&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
“… Shares of insurers operating in the Affordable Care Act exchanges have surged in recent weeks. In effect, investors are betting that
enhanced subsidies for these plans will be extended. But even if that happens, some of these insurers still face structural problems that one policy reprieve won’t fix.
In the years leading up to
Donald Trump’s second presidency, Medicare Advantage plans were squeezed while Medicaid and ACA exchange plans benefited from pandemic-era
rules that boosted enrollment and funding.
… The unwinding of that support—combined with Republican control of both Congress and the White House—flipped the script. The outlook for Medicare Advantage may now be improving, but Medicaid and ACA exchange plans have suffered as enrollment declined and healthier members dropped out, leaving a costlier pool behind.
At the same time, healthcare costs have accelerated more than insurance companies expected. This explains why
Centene CNC -1.04%decrease; red down pointing triangle and
Molina HealthcareMOH 2.18%increase; green up pointing triangle shares were sharply lower this year, before partly rebounding in recent weeks. They both still remain down 35% or more this year.
Their rebound rally comes as Wall Street bets that the Biden-era enhanced subsidies for ACA plans, set to expire at year-end, could be renewed as part of a broader deal to end the shutdown. Democrats have made that a condition for reopening the government, and reports suggest Republicans are exploring ways to make an extension acceptable to their base. That is far better than what investors expected months ago, when Republicans left the subsidy extensions out of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” …”