Ukraine War | Zelensky seeks NATO guarantees for unoccupied Ukraine for peace

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nycfan said:
Yeah, it was called Putin invades Ukraine or something like that, but didn't get a lot of traction, so no reason not to start a new one.
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Funny. I had thought Putin's invasion of Ukraine had gained traction. In fact, I think that's pretty much all it gained, right?
 
mickryan.substack.com

The Battle of Kursk 2024

A quick assessment of what we know about the surprise Ukrainian assault into Russia, and what might be Ukraine’s strategic and operational objectives.
mickryan.substack.com mickryan.substack.com

The Battle of Kursk 2024​

A quick assessment of what we know about the surprise Ukrainian assault into Russia, and what might be Ukraine’s strategic and operational objectives.​

 

“…
The incursion, which was filmed on videos posted online and reported by Russian officials and military analysts, prompted the local governor to declare a state of emergency. On Wednesday President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia convened with top military and security officials to strategize about the attack.

The surprising assault appears to represent an effort by Ukraine to turn the tables on Moscow by pushing into its territory. In May, Russia caught Ukraine off guard when it sent troops across the border in the area north of Kharkiv, where it still has a narrow foothold.

Ukraine has remained mostly silent about the attack, which began on Tuesday. The Ukrainian military has not acknowledged its troops are in Russia.

…
Analysts and Russian military bloggers have said the Ukrainian push involves regular Army units. That would be a change from the previous incursions, which were carried out by armed groups of Russian exiles backed by Kyiv’s army.

The fighting was intensive enough for the acting governor of the Kursk region in Russia, Aleksei Smirnov, to declare a state of emergency late Wednesday in order to “liquidate the results of an incursion into the region’s territory by enemy forces.”

“Difficult conditions for operations persist” in the border region, Mr. Smirnov said in a statement posted on the Telegram messaging app, without specifying where or how intensively the fighting continued. …”
 
Batt Boy said:
Good thread there on PP. Battboy was banned there for criticizing Michael Mackay (still think he might be a Russian plant) so I have to post under one of my aliases.
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The Brickyard has been made premium only. The thread you're talking about is on the sports board.
 


“As the war in Ukraine settled into a stalemate, two assumptions became prevalent among analysts: First, that it is nearly impossible to achieve any surprise on a battlefield blanketed by drones. Second, that it is nearly impossible to mount fast-moving offensive operations, given the extensive defenses erected by both sides. Ukraine has challenged both assumptions over the past few days with its surprise, lightning-fast thrust into Russia’s Kursk region — an area familiar to military historians as the site, during World War II, of the biggest tank battle in history.

… the Ukrainians have practically waltzed into the Kursk region, because the Russians weren’t expecting an attack there. This reinforces the lesson of the June 2023 rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries, who found a practically open road to Moscow before turning back at the last moment. The interior of Russia is lightly defended, and the lumbering Russian military cannot react quickly to new threats. It makes you wonder why the Ukrainians mounted a costly and futile frontal assault on Russian lines last summer instead of staging a “left hook” through Russian territory to attack the Russian defenders from the rear — similar to the maneuver that the United States employed against Iraqi forces in Kuwait during the Gulf War in 1991. …”
 
This is the pressure that will force Ukraine toward a peace treaty that cedes territory:



Polls show that a majority of war-weary Ukrainians support a peace treaty that gives up land occupied by Russia, which was not the case a year ago. Russia is grinding the population down.
 
nycfan said:


“As the war in Ukraine settled into a stalemate, two assumptions became prevalent among analysts: First, that it is nearly impossible to achieve any surprise on a battlefield blanketed by drones. Second, that it is nearly impossible to mount fast-moving offensive operations, given the extensive defenses erected by both sides. Ukraine has challenged both assumptions over the past few days with its surprise, lightning-fast thrust into Russia’s Kursk region — an area familiar to military historians as the site, during World War II, of the biggest tank battle in history.

… the Ukrainians have practically waltzed into the Kursk region, because the Russians weren’t expecting an attack there. This reinforces the lesson of the June 2023 rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries, who found a practically open road to Moscow before turning back at the last moment. The interior of Russia is lightly defended, and the lumbering Russian military cannot react quickly to new threats. It makes you wonder why the Ukrainians mounted a costly and futile frontal assault on Russian lines last summer instead of staging a “left hook” through Russian territory to attack the Russian defenders from the rear — similar to the maneuver that the United States employed against Iraqi forces in Kuwait during the Gulf War in 1991. …”
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https://media.tenor.com/gvT1r7OHXbEAAAAM/karmasabitch-karmaisabitch.gif
 


Sure, we should watch and adapt our strategy accordingly but Let’s not tempt fate by taunting Putin on this point.
 
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