UNC Basketball Possible coaches - UNC hires ex-Nuggets HC Michael Malone

NYCBlueBlood said:
Agree 100% on everything you said. Byington and McCollum are big risks to me, but better options than BD. I also agree that we are still well within the timeframe of a reasonable, well conducted coaching search.

However, we got off on the back foot because the PTB made the decision to punt and give HD another year... and then after the last game let the angry mob change their minds.

If we were going to make a change, the decision should have been made before the ACCT ever started, and quiet behind the scenes convos should have been happening for weeks before they started. Publicly initiating convos in the middle of a tournament run killed any chances we might have had with Lloyd and May IMO. If I was in their shoes, the way we handled this would have been a showstopper for me.
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I think the problem was that before the ACCT, the expectation was that Hubert was going to keep his job. It was the team’s performances in the ACCT and then NCAAT that did him in.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I definitely think it’s waaay too early to panic about this search. This is what an actual coaching search looks like when you have high standards for your candidates. We UNC fans aren’t used to a true coaching search like that. Since most of us have been following UNC hoops, we saw an assistant take over for our retiring head coach, then a search that was limited to only UNC alums, then Roy Williams waiting in the wings, then an assistant taking over for a retiring head coach. Now we’re actually conducting a real search without limiting the candidates to just UNC alums and going after what appear to be the most highly qualified viable candidates. Some of those candidates are either still coaching right now or just finished their seasons within roughly the last two weeks.

And Stevens was never a real option. It’s pointless be be bothered by not getting him. That was never really in play and just as likely as getting Dean Smith’s ghost to coach us. It’s also a significant long shot to land a coach who is coaching a major program in the Final Four and has no connections to the hiring school. Worth taking a shot, but the odds of it happening are very low.

Some people will be happy with who we end up hiring and other people won’t be (unless it’s miraculously Dusty May, which I would not expect). But there is no real indication right now that we are running into problems with our search. The only real issue is fans’ expectations of what a search is supposed to look like.
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Sure, everything that has happened so far was easy to see coming. The problem is that (right or wrong) the angry mob caused a last second change of mind... and now "the plan" is being made up on the fly and getting patched up with popsicle sticks and duct tape every time what should have been expected... was not anticipated.

I suppose we can thank God for small favors that they used an outside firm to manage the process, but it seems to me the outside firm has been handcuffed by orders to focus on closing a top tier candidate fast... when it should have been obvious from the start that we were never going to get any of them.

While of course they must check off those boxes, releasing public statements that said most of the likely candidates were Tier B/C at best... not exactly bright. The balance of reassuring the public over managing a professional search has been turrible.
 
rodoheel said:
As I said at the time, changing coaches always presents risk, and we had no guarantee whatsoever of getting an elite coach. Anyone who thought otherwise is foolish. We won't know the full story of this coaching search until it's over, and a real referendum will have to wait at least multiple years. But personally, no matter how poorly the coaching search goes, it will not change my mind one bit about the decision to part ways with Hubert. It was clear (to me) that we were not going to become an elite program again with Hubert as the coach. We may not under the next coach, either, but if not we'll fire that guy and start over again. That's how it goes.
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Yes, I know your POV has been that any change is better then no change... and mine is that the wrong change is far worse than waiting another year for the right one... or even having HD turn things around, which I know you believe is off the table. Time will tell. Hopefully this closes quickly, the new guy is a success, and all my fears turn out to be pointless.
 
While I certianly wouldn’t consider Donovan a bad hire, I would much rather take a chance on a younger coach presently coaching in college. Sure, there’s a risk but there’s also potential for a greater upside. I’d rather not miss out on a chance to land the next Tim Lloyd or Dusty May or Danny Hurley (without the antics) or young Roy Williams. More often than not, to land a great coach that you’re going to have for a while, you have to take a chance. You hire a Donovan, you might be looking for a new coach in another 7-8 years, during which you might be watching guys like McCollum or Byington or others dominate the game, but you missed your chance to land them. Had we let Hubert go last year (not arguing that we should have), we may have been able to land Lloyd or May.
 
duluoz said:
I’ve heard Cadeau be passive aggressive about that in multiple postgame interviews going back to the fall. He seems to think he had a short leash under HD, especially shooting. Hard to argue against HD there, and he’s lucky he’s had enough talent at Michigan to not only get him freer shots but also to cover up for his lousy shooting nights.

Either way it’s petty of him to take little jabs like that and it supports my impression of him as a little weasel, especially with his floppy ref-baiting on-court antics.
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Isn't part of being a successful coach being a good recruiter? You guys act like May's ability to surround Cadeau with great talent and Hubert's inability to do so is somehow not the fault of Hubert.

Also, you say it's hard to argue against HD for giving EC a short leash when it comes to shooting. Don't you think that affected EC's mindset every time he shot the ball? That lack of confidence Hubert instilled in him was something Nate Oats took advantage of in the 2024 Sweet 16 as they literally backed off into the lane when guarding him, daring him to shoot.

The proof is in the pudding: Cadeau, Tyler Nickel, Cade Tyson, Kerwin Walton. Guys who left UNC under Hubert, unable to get off the bench due to inconsistent shooting and became legit long-range threats at their next school. Cade Tyson's production at Minnesota after a nightmare year at UNC was the most damning evidence of Hubert not being able to coach shooters. I mean, look at Kerwin Walton's career: Excellent freshman season shooting the ball under Roy Williams. Then the bottom falls out and he loses all his playing time for Hubert the next year. Then he transfers to Texas Tech for three years and regains the confidence he had as a freshman.
 
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WaynetheDrain said:
Isn't part of being a successful coach being a good recruiter? You guys act like May's ability to surround Cadeau with great talent and Hubert's inability to do so is somehow not the fault of Hubert.

Also, you say it's hard to argue against HD for giving EC a short leash when it comes to shooting. Don't you think that affected EC's mindset every time he shot the ball? That lack of confidence Hubert instilled in him was something Nate Oats took advantage of in the 2024 Sweet 16 as they literally backed off into the lane when guarding him, daring him to shoot.

The proof is in the pudding: Cadeau, Tyler Nickel, Cade Tyson, Kerwin Walton. Guys who left UNC under Hubert, unable to get off the bench due to inconsistent shooting and became legit long-range threats at their next school. Tyler Nickel's production at Minnesota after a nightmare year at UNC was the most damning evidence of Hubert not being able to coach shooters.
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it was cade tyson who had the good season at minnesota.

nickel took a couple of years to really get going after leaving UNC.
 
dukeman92 said:
McCollum isn't going to win the press conference but he is an absolute slam dunk.
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I have two concerns with both Byington and McCollum... first, young up and coming coaches sometimes go on to do great things... and sometimes wind up one hit wonders who fizzle off and become mediocre coaches. Too early to tell on both.

Second, many coaches who thrive in more with less situations are not the right personality to succeed in more with more type situations. Going from a school where the admin and fans throw you a party every day no matter what... to UNC where no matter how much you succeed, you will be hounded daily with how you could have done things better... it's not an easy transition.

Nothing ever goes 100% smoothly, and these young coaches will be hit with a shit show of fan ugliness for the first time in their lives the second things get a little rough... and will have to deal with it under a microscope the likes of which they never imagined.

People think it's easy to succeed at UNC because of all the advantages that come with it. But IMO it's also easier to fail because of the step up in pressure, visibility and expectations that are impossible to simulate in advance.
 
4thgenheel said:
it was cade tyson who had the good season at minnesota.

nickel took a couple of years to really get going after leaving UNC.
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Good catch, I edited. I meant Tyson, but typed Nickel. Caucasians all look alike.

As for Nickel, I think what he did as a sophomore at Virginia Tech would have been possible with the proper coaching during his freshman year.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
the wrong change is far worse than waiting another year for the right one
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I understand that perspective but this assumes that a clear opportunity for the "right change" will come the next year...or the year after that...or the year after that. We could be waiting around forever for some obvious "right change" to fall into our lap. In reality we very likely could have been in an even worse position to make a change a year from now, with a program even less desirable to potential coach hires. Another Roy Williams is not going to fall into our lap.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Good catch, I edited. I meant Tyson, but typed Nickel. Caucasians all look alike.

As for Nickel, I think what he did as a sophomore at Virginia Tech would have been possible with the proper coaching during his freshman year.
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lol.

i'm not gonna die on any "HD was a developmental savant!" hill but i don't think that nickel is particularly illustrative of anything.

he absolutely wasn't good enough for 25 mpg as a freshman at UNC. his sophomore production at VT in 25 mpg was on a poor team.

we would've been just as bad or worse with nickel playing more minutes in 2023.
 
rodoheel said:
I understand that perspective but this assumes that a clear opportunity for the "right change" will come the next year...or the year after that...or the year after that. We could be waiting around forever for some obvious "right change" to fall into our lap. In reality we very likely could have been in an even worse position to make a change a year from now, with a program even less desirable to potential coach hires. Another Roy Williams is not going to fall into our lap.
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To me, the right change is merely taking a full season to plan a transition. We would have been better served to wait one season to make the change. We can't control who is available, but we can control how much effort and care we put into planning the change.
 
It's the results that matter, despite all the excuses. Bottom line, the trend was down and getting worse.

Post Season Results

22: 6-2
23: 1-1 and whiffed on the tournament!
24: 4-2
25: 3-2
26: 0-2

HD finished 14-9 in the post season and 43% of his total wins came the first year. After that he was 9-8 (.529)

Never won the ACC. Not once.

Not good enough.
 
rodoheel said:
I understand that perspective but this assumes that a clear opportunity for the "right change" will come the next year...or the year after that...or the year after that. We could be waiting around forever for some obvious "right change" to fall into our lap. In reality we very likely could have been in an even worse position to make a change a year from now, with a program even less desirable to potential coach hires. Another Roy Williams is not going to fall into our lap.
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Sure. And if we make the wrong change now, we could be signing up for another 3 to 5 years of mediocrity, after which the program would be equally or even more undesirable to potential coach hires.

In my experience with hiring and firing CEOs, and I've seen A LOT of it in the odd niche which my career falls, making the wrong hire is almost always far worse than taking the extra time to make the right one. And making/announcing the call on a dime over a single gut-wrenching event is a recipe for disaster.
 
roostra said:
To me, the right change is merely taking a full season to plan a transition. We would have been better served to wait one season to make the change. We can't control who is available, but we can control how much effort and care we put into planning the change.
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has a program ever done a planned coaching transition with a dead-man-walking coach rather than one who is retiring or leaving of their own accord?

i can't think of that ever happening and can't really see how it would be better - toxicity off the charts. and sounds like it was impossible for UNC to do something like that here anyway as the boosters simply weren't going to fund NIL.
 
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NYCBlueBlood said:
Let me premise this by saying it's waaaaaaay too early for me to even be thinking about "I told you so's." However... so far this coaching search is going exactly how I feared... and precisely why I was hesitant to see the trigger pulled on HD.

Biiiiiiiiig swing and a miss on all our Tier 1 options. Stevens politely turns us down before we can even really start. Lloyd leverages our offer for negotiations. May does not seem to even consider us.

Now on to Billy D... at first glance he sounds like a slam dunk option. But when you dig in, he's been unsuccessful in the NBA pro model, hasn’t coached in college in 10+ years, and arguably almost all the top tier coaches from his era have retired (many well before their time), because of inability and/or unwillingness to adapt to the pro model at the college level.

Add on to this that Billy D is making public comments about not being willing to start conversation until the NBA season is over in a week and the transfer portal opening tomorrow. Even if we do get Billy D, coming from the NBA he comes with zero current players transferring to stay with him... and zero pipeline with any current high school or foreign players.

I'm hoping Tanner is staying busy while this circus is playing out, but we are already tap dancing on the line of next year being a throw-away season... and there is still not a visible path for who our next coach will be.

If we swing and miss on Billy D as well (or give up on waiting out the next week), next up apparently is Byington or McCollum. Both intriguing options, but neither a slam dunk. And frankly, we have no idea whether they want this job or (similar to TJO) would prefer to do their thing somewhere where they get constant fan and admin adoration for what they do... whereas at UNC every time they fart in public there will be 27 articles and multiple 100+ page fan threads on maybe they are not the right person for the job.

So way too early for "I told you so's"? Absolutely. But going exactly as I feared so far? Absolutely.
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To be honest, I have the impression that Carolina’s athletic department is run by people who still think it’s 1988. It has the appearance of a slow, clumsy operation characterized by arrogance and a sense of entitlement.
 
SnoopRob said:
Brands still matter, even if they don't matter as much as they used to.

Arizona and MIchigan are top 10-15 programs, they are traditionally very good programs in CBB. It was always going to be hard to poach their coaches if they decided they wanted to keep them. But in order to fend off Carolina, Arizona just had to promise it's coach a very significant raise, a very significant increase in NIL, and create a unique arrangement where the basketball coach now reports directly to the university president rather than the AD. How many schools do you think could push a fairly high level program into doing all of that to retain their coach? Not many.

We'll have to see who we end up with at the end of the search, but there's nothing to suggest that "brands don't really matter anymore".
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I mean, we offered him more money, and he still turned us down. I think it’s pretty clear that the brand didn’t move the needle for Lloyd (or May).

There’s a correlation between brand and $$$. But when you control for money, not sure you’d see any relevant difference in the power of the Carolina brand or that of the Arizona brand. It’s going to be more about money, family situation, NIL, etc. As others have pointed out, there is a reason that as of last year, Carolina, dook and Kentucky all had former players as head coaches.
 
4thgenheel said:
has a program ever done a planned coaching transition with a dead-man-walking coach rather than one who is retiring or leaving of their own accord?

i can't think of that ever happening and can't really see how it would be better - toxicity city. and sounds like it was impossible for UNC to do something like that here anyway as the boosters simply weren't going to fund NIL.
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Meh... people blow off steam after a gut wreonching loss. We wait a couple days, and cooler heads likely prevail. What people claim they will do in the heat of the moment vs what they actually do are often very different.

As for doing a quiet, behind the scenes planning/ evaluation process with discreet feelers going out next Feb... there are ways to do a confidential search where you don't have a dead man walking scenario. I can't tell you the number of nondisclosure agreements I've been forced to sign by recruiters before they tell me the name of the company they are recruiting for. It happens 10,000 times a day in the business world without the person currently in the role knowing.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
To be honest, I have the impression that Carolina’s athletic department is run by people who still think it’s 1988. It has the appearance of a slow, clumsy operation characterized by arrogance and a sense of entitlement.
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Certainly a lack of faith in UNC's track record for hiring new coaches plays a role in my anxiety over pushing out HD on essentially a whim.
 
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